We have another exciting day of baseball on Thursday to remind us that the world is not all bad. We are going to spice it up a bit today as we are doing strictly player props, including a couple of strikeout props for pitchers on the rise:
Juan Soto/Jesse Winker/Kyle Tucker Total Hits O/U 0.5
Parlay Time! To preface this pick, I just want to point out that any time you are taking a player hit total prop bet the odds are usually pretty light so your payout won’t be great unless you parlay it with another pick. Today we are tripling down with a focus on burgeoning left-handed OF superstars in Juan Soto, Jesse Winker, and Kyle Tucker. Soto hasn’t quite put up the elite numbers we expect from him so far this season, but his unusually low BABIP (.276) would suggest some positive regression. Today he gets RHP Zach Eflin, who pounds the zone (1.6 BB%) and has allowed a career-high 27.2% of batted balls to be line drives. Soto is also 9 for 18 against Eflin in his career.
Winker is blossoming right before our eyes this season and is looking like a good bet to make the All-Star Game at this rate. Now he gets Chi Chi Gonzalez and Coors Field so multiple hits are well within reach for the 27-year old slashing .375/.431/.670 on the season. Kyle Tucker is one of the brightest young OFs in the game and has suffered from some bad luck at the plate to begin the year (.200 BABIP). He has started to turn that around over a four-game hit streak with 7 hits in 13 at-bats over that span. Today he gets Mike Foltynewicz who struggles mightily against LH bats, yielding a .313 AVG and .443 wOBA.
Pick: Juan Soto (-225)/Jesse Winker (-420)/Kyle Tucker (-200) OVER 0.5 (+168 DK)
Jameson Taillon Total Ks O/U 6.5
Jameson Taillon seems to get closer and closer with each start to getting back to the fringe top-of-the-rotation pitcher he showed he could be in Pittsburgh and this could be the one he puts it all together. The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the higher K% against RHP in baseball at 25.4% and have been especially poor overall lately with a 30.9 K% over the last two weeks, the highest in MLB. In fact, they are just worse than the Detroit Tigers (30.4 K%) over that stretch, who Taillon struck out 8 times in 5 IP on May 1st. Gerrit Cole was able to rack up 12 K’s against the Rays last night and while I don’t think Taillon is capable of that, 7 Ks is well within reason.
Pick: OVER 6.5 (+128 DK, +110 FD)
Cristian Javier Total Ks O/U 6.5
The fact that Logan Webb was able to strike out ten Rangers over 6 IP on Tuesday should tell you all you need to know about this one. Texas has a league-high 28.1 K% against RHP and faces Astros starter Cristian Javier on Thursday, who is enjoying a much improved 30.6 K% in 2021. Javier is coming off an 8 strikeout performance in 5.1 IP against Toronto in his last start, who has just a 22.6 K% against RHP for comparison. Look for a plethora of swings and misses from Rangers’ bats as Javier continues his strong season for Houston.
Pick: OVER 6.5 (-114 DK, +106 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 17-15-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$678.07
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)