Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is: Well, not much! It was a pretty boring week for hitters, unless the arrivals of Colby Thomas and Yanquiel Fernandez tickle your fancy (the name Yanquiel definitely tickles something) but sometimes I love those weeks because they allow me to dive deeper on abandoned shiny new toys that we shouldn’t have tossed so carelessly. After all, arriving to the majors does take an adjustment period, and those who can keep tabs on those guys can scoop them right as they turned a corner so you can reap the buy-low fantasy goodness. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Agustin Ramirez (C, Miami Marlins)
Gust in the winda, all we are is gustin the wind. Shame he doesn’t play for Kansas. He weirdly went from the most hyped hitter to suddenly being underrated after a small slump unplugged the hype machine. But it doesn’t make sense! How are we not stoked about a rookie who has hit 12 homers in just 252 PA (more than Yainer Diaz and most other catchers). What’s more, his underlying stats suggest better times ahead, as his expected stats indicate bad luck with a .284 xBA and .518 xSLG, and his 19% K% will allow his elite 75 mph bat speed and 12% barrel rate to eat. While it’s too bad he’s not also stealing bases, I think he’s already a top 10 catcher and would not be at all surprised to see him in the top 5 by year’s end.
Michael Busch (1B, Chicago Cubs)
I’ll admit this writeup was preceded by my OBP keeper league’s rival trading a keeper Busch for a Lindor rental, and me shouting “For Busch?!” and then throwing a shoe at my computer screen. But then it pulled up Busch’s profile and I was like “Oh… I get it now.”
Busch has quietly been a top 12 first baseman this year, avoiding the wild downswings of last year and showing a much more mature approach. It’s honestly puzzling how he manages to hit for such good power despite having quite poor 19th percentile bat speed, but don’t let that scare you. He has a knack for barrels with a 14% rate, thanks mostly to his penchant for optimized launch angle (90th percentile SweetSpot% of 40%). He also has an elite PullAir% of 23%, and it’s impressive he can do this while keeping his K% at a modest 21%. His xwOBA has been well over .400 for well over 100 PA, and he could absolutely finish the season hitting .275 with 30 homers and a couple handfuls of stolen bases. Due to his lack of name value compared to the other top names at the position, he’s a great buy low in both 10-team AVG and OBP formats.
Honorable Mention: Willy Adames (SS, San Francisco Giants) – He probably wasn’t cut just due to the draft capital, and it probably hasn’t gone unnoticed that he’s hit over .270 with 5 homers this month. But given the terrible start and the fact he still appears unimpressive with a .211/.297/.348 line with 10 HR and 4 SB, you still might get a nice discount.
12-team
Tyler Freeman (OF, Colorado Rockies)
He’s hitting over .320. He has a week in Colorado. He’s been the #1 biggest riser in xwOBA over his past 100 PA, going from well below .300 to over .400, a shocking development for a historically punchless hitter. But it certainly helps that he cut his K% nearly in half to 8% this year (was 14% in 2024), and is also walking more at 11%. I want to still be skeptical, but even if his AVG wasn’t the exact same as his xBA, he plays in Coors where the expected stats rules don’t apply. And he steals bases. He’s a must-add in all 12-team formats, but during this homestand he’s a viable stream in 10-team while he keeps this up.
Kyle Stowers (OF, Miami Marlins)
He didn’t throw his homer ability overboard… the whole time it was beneath deck, and Kyle stowed it there. He wins this year’s Joc Pederson award, as being a hitter who has a beautiful Statcast page but that doesn’t show that he’s sat against most lefties. But he deserves better, as he’s actually hit over .300 against lefties this year… on the Marlins! Seriously, what good does it serve not letting your best hitter by a mile at least get his reps in? Even with that frustration, I think even without full-time playing time, the fact he’s finally bounced back from his looooong homer drought to be large and in charge again shows he’s matured, and that 98% barrel% can make up for a loooot of flaws, even a 29% K%. Stoooowers!
Honorable Mention: Jurickson Profar (OF, Atlanta Braves) – In deeper formats, the time to scoop him was a few weeks ago. But in shallower and more casual leagues, this is your last reasonable chance to pick him up, and I still think the upside is 12-team viable even though I don’t expect him to repeat last year.
Honorable Mention: Otto Lopez (2B/SS, Miami Marlins) – He’s been my guy since Week 1, and with his near-.500 batting average this week, his actual stats are finally starting to catch up to the expected numbers. But the expected numbers are also rapidly rising, with a .301 xBA and .495 xSLG, he’s actually approaching 10-team viability. Add now or buy “high”.
15-team
Ramon Laureano (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
Looking at his Statcast page may leave you unimpressed and consider him a stream or sell-high, since his .280 AVG and .526 SLG% are higher than his .253 xBA and .469 xSLG. But there are two reasons that doesn’t concern me. One is that the Orioles are often playing him high in the lineup, showing that they trust him as a middle of the order hitter and he’s delivered. But number two is that he’s hitting a TON of pulled flyballs, and Statcast still doesn’t honor that as it should. His 29% Pull AIR% is 11th in all of baseball just behind Jose Ramirez. I listened to five different fantasy baseball podcasts and none of them are talking about this, but it’s a big deal, even aside from the fact he’s also barreling well with a K% improvement and also excellent O-Swing%. Especially given Camden is back to being a hitter’s park and especially in the summer, don’t sit on your laurels if you don’t have Laureano.
Coby Mayo (1B, Baltimore Orioles)
I know, I know, he’s been quite possible THE most frustrating fantasy hitter prospect to roster for nearly two seasons now. And he’s only hitting .219 with 1 homer in 78 PA. But it seems like Mayo may finally be turning into the slugger he was condiment to be. The most important thing is he’s actually getting played more, with 5 games per week over the past two weeks, and this week he went 5-for-14 with a homer and 5 RBI. He’s only struck out 3 times, a big deal given that his 2024 K% was a hilarious 48%. This year it’s at a passable 26%, with also a solid 9% Barrel% and 44% HardHit%. None of those are that impressive, I know, but his xwOBA is on the uptrend, and Camden being the hottest stadium in the summer will aid his flyballs, which he’s hitting a lot of this year. With prospect pedigree and upside like this, sometimes you have to jump in early before people catch on.
Deep Leagues
Alejandro Osuna (OF, Texas Rangers)
He may still look colder than an ice bath, but under the hood he’s hotter than an Osauna. His cup of coffee started off tasting like mud, and he’s still looking bad with a .167 AVG with 1 HR and 2 SB in 65 PA. But he’s actually still playing regularly, showing the team trusts him, and it helps he’s a decent defender. But what intrigues me more is that he’s been extremely unlucky with an actually helpful .287 xBA and .460 xSLG. What in the what? That’s right, even though he’s not barrelling a lot, he has a plus 46% HardHit% combined with both top-quartile Chase% and Whiff%. A player who hits the ball hard, runs fast, walks a ton and doesn’t strike out? The sample is still small, sure, but he’s looking like a nearly complete fantasy player and it’s the perfect time to jump in.
Tyler Fitzgerald (2B/SS, San Francisco Giants)
In some leagues, a demotion to the minors is the final straw to players getting dropped even in NL-only formats. If that’s the case, you might be able to sneak a scoop on Fitz & the SanFranSlumps. He’s at least hit two doubles in his return, and while his .234 AVG with 2 HR and 9 SB on the season is bad, keep in mind he still only played 59 games and if nothing else, his speed is legit. With third base suddenly become a Russian doll of injuries (Chapman, Schmitt, and Christian Kozachok), he now has more playing time security, though I’m sad to say he abandoned his one winning strategy of having a high PullAIR% so I don’t see much power coming.
Honorable Mention: Daylen Lile (OF, Washington Nationals) – Somewhat similarly to Osuna, he has yawn-inducing surface stats (.235 with 1 HR and 2 SB) but an excellent HardHit% of 50%, and an elite Whiff% of 13%. His .276 xBA and .409 xSLG suggest brighter days ahead if he can hold the role. In a dynasty league I’d stockpile them both on the cheap.
SELL
10-team
Mookie Betts (SS/2B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Yes, I went there. Tough Mookies. Look, I called him a sell high back in April, which sounded crazy, and whaddayaknow, I was right. I mean, he’s not BAD, he’s hitting .249 with 9 HR and 6 SB in 305 AB but thanks to being on the Dodgers is still pacing for 100 runs. but his xwOBA has been falling fast, and in terms of actual stats, has hit just .176/.233/.235 with no homers and 1 SB in 68 AB over the past 3 weeks. That has probably lost you serious ground in such a shallow format.
You’ll probably point to his career-best 10% K% as a sign of optimism, and it does help a bit, but the real problem here is the contact quality, as his 35% HardHit% is the lowest in his career (43% average) and I think it’ll keep going down because he simply can’t maintain his weight. That was my concern early on after a long illness sapped about 15 pounds from him, and players typically lose weight as the season goes on, and he doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room there. Add in the fact he’s working on his defense at shortstop, which has been excellent, but this would not be the first time a position switch caused his bat to suffer. But no I wouldn’t drop him in most scenarios, because the name value carries a ton of weight, and there is surely someone in your league willing to pay a high price still in the hopes they just landed a buy-low superstar. And compared to other struggling stars, there’s simply less indications of a turnaround. He’s still my #1 pick in Fantasy baseball, basketball, bowling, and golf league though. He’s the only one who can roll me that 300.
Dishonorable Mention: Marcell Ozuna (DH, Atlanta Braves) – Ever since the news of him still playing through a hip injury came out, his production has nosedived, and suddenly the 40+ homer monster is at serious risk of not topping 20. The Statcast sliders still look rosy enough to try to sell perhaps, but I’m worried given the bar is high at your UTIL slot. BUT his value is much higher in OBP this year with a career-high 16% BB%.
Dishonorable Mention: Royce Lewis (3B, Minnesota Twins) – Even in his best years, Statcast never seemed to think he was great as we all did, and between the toothpick hamstrings and a disturbing lack of barrels, I think this is the year Royce Rolls over.
12-team
Jung-Hoo Lee (OF, San Francisco Giants)
It may be even too mild to call him a 12-team drop, as I’ve been benching him in my 15-team Draft Champions for nearly a month now. He had an amazing April, and kudos to you if you had the wherewithal to trade him away then. He’s hit just .100 with no homers or steals in 60 AB the past 3 weeks, and just .056 over the past two weeks, to drag his season line down to .240 with 6 HR and 6 SB in 308 AB. The run production has still been surprisingly decent, but now that he’s batting 7th that may also change. But in 15-team, I would still try to bench, but in 12-teamers I simply don’t see anything worth holding on to.
Dishonorable Mention: Anthony Volpe (SS, New York Yankees) – He’s really falling apart, hitting jiust .147/.244/.350 with 1 HR and 2 SB in 68 AB over the past 3 weeks. The poor batting average and mediocre power are concerning, but I’m more on edge about him having 3 caught stealing for those two stolen bases, and 7 CS on the season… A 56% SB success rate should lead to a big red light, sapping the primary driver of his fantasy value.
15-team
Austin Wells (C, New York Yankees)
Although last year I liked him at various points of the year as a buy-low, his changes this year haven’t served Austin well. He’s hit just .159/.191/.205 with no homers in 44 AB over the past 3 weeks, bringing his season average down to just .214 with 11 HR in 229 AB. I do like that he’s making more hard contact this year with a powerful 49% HardHit%, but it’s come at a cost with a 25% K% and a significantly lower 7% BB%. But aside from that, the fact that Ben Rice is playing catcher sometimes cuts into his value, and if the struggles continue, they may decide they will put up with Rice’s inferior defense to keep his bat in the lineup.
Dishonorable Mention: David Hamilton (2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
I hope you weren’t one of the people who overreacted to Kristian Campbell’s demotion and assumed that this will finally be Hamilton’s opportunity for a full-time role, and he wasn’t going to give up his shot. He’s still playing second fiddle to the likes of Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez, and given their performance against his, it deserves to stay that way. Rabbits will break your heart.
Deep Leagues
Tommy Pham (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
His expected numbers are looking Phamished. If the fact that he’s only hit 2 homers and stolen 3 bases in 207 PA hasn’t concerned you enough, consider that he’s actually outperforming his expected stats, with an abysmal .213 xBA (5th percentile) and .302 xSLG (2nd percentile). While he’s improved a tad lately, there does come a point where even regular playing time is worth passing on even in super deep leagues, and it seems we’re here. The only thing he doesn’t do is chase, because with a bat like that, you bet he’s hoping to get walked.
Dishonorable Mention: Derek Hill (OF, Miami Marlins)
In the preseason, there was the idea Hill had no competition for the CF gig, but with several hitters including Dane Myers showing out, Hill is likely looking at the small side of a platoon, and it’s really hard for that to ever be fantasy viable.
