Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is… don’t forget us! Most of the people who focus on the latest prospect promotions can easily miss the biggest breakouts happening under our noses, especially when said player had a rough start to the year. That’s why I encourage looking at rolling windows and caring more in July about how they’re playing now, because time is running out and the past often does not help predict the future. Some of these were players I initially believed in, so I’m thrilled to jump back in. Also, I just noticed, a TON of outfielders on the list this week. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Dominic Canzone (OF, Seattle Mariners)
IT’S HAPPENING. He’s getting full-time opportunities, meaning that we’re expanding the Yes He Can-zone. He’s certainly earned it, as his rolling xwOBA has been rolling only uphill for months now, after a weak start, where I will admit briefly losing the faith in him, despite predicting him as a breakout pick in the preseason. He’s now hitting .267 with an excellent 14 homers, validated by his Statcast, with a terrific .279 xBA and .532 xSLG (the xSLG is actually a bit worse, the greater disparity was big back in May.
But the bigger point is he’s been on a 25+ homer pace despite only racking up 237 PA (210 AB) so far, and now the team has announced that he is Dominic Unchained and will face all pitchers going forward. I think it’s been a travesty they’ve even been platooning him at all, given that he hit lefties just fine last year, hitting .276/.368/.345, which I get is less in terms of power, but was actually better than vs. righties in terms of OBP (.355 OBP vs righties). This year, it had been even better, hitting .273/.448/.545 vs lefties… all of which are better than his numbers vs righties. Granted, a major caveat is that it’s only 29 PA, since apparently this was worth giving more of a chance. I do think the rate stats may decline as he adjusts, but it’s more than countered by the increased run production and fewer headaches for those in weekly lineups. He’s an all-formats add, and perhaps has sneaky OBP league upside if the lefty OBP bump is more than small sample noise.
Kyle Tucker (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)
I get it, he’s been bad, just bad, but in a sneaky, not quite bad enough to cut way. And that’s made him even worse. Since it’s Kyle Tucker, of course, we could learn that actually he’s been playing through secret stress fractures this whole time. I mean, he was a top 20 player often going in the first round post-signing, and he’s been apparently healthy, and here he is beyond the halfway point, hitting .248 with 7 homers and 6 stolen bases. His barrel rate is suddenly halved, his K rate is up, bat speed is down, SB attempts are down. And that is NOT OKAY. Wait, so why am I calling him a buy?
Well, it’s July, and I’m assuming anyone rostering him is basically DONE with him. And he might be turning it around. He’s rocking a much improved .409 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA, although it still hasn’t manifested into something noticeable much in the rate stats (though he is hitting .381 with a 6/2 BB/K ratio this week, as he still is single digits in everything. With pitching, we have TIARAs, who can Turn It Around Right Away, and I think if you want to bet on that happening with Tucker, you need to act fast before people catch on. And while I get he does look worse, there’s still not much of an explanation behind his terrible year besides “He’s pressing”.” He’s 29, he seems mostly healthy, great team coaching/analytics, tons of support… so I think it’s worth trying to trade for him or add him in a league where he was cut. The talent is still there… it’s just been…Kyle Tucked away.
Honorable Mention: Bo Bichette (3B/SS, New York Mets) – I’ll admit it boggled my mind a bit that experts were still talking about him in June as if he was a major disappointment, as if he didn’t surge after a very slow start in an almost identical way just last year. He could reach a .280 average and 20 homers by year’s end.
12-team
Kyle Stowers (OF, Miami Marlins)
We welcome the funky return of the Stowers of powers. In a quite incredible twist, he’s following the rule of 3s all the way. He’s hitting .333 with 3 homers this week, and he’s also hitting .333 over the past two weeks, and hitting .333 over the past 3 weeks, with 6 homers, and 18 RBI. How many RBI is that per homer? You guessed it, 3.
On the year, he’s hitting .243 with 11 homers, which is the only reason he could still theoretically be available in slower-to-react or checked out leagues. With his 55% HardHit% up to the 98th percentile, we can stomach a higher K rate, as even during this hot stretch, he still has 26 Ks in 66 AB (74 PA). So yes, he’s not likely to be an AVG asset in the long-term and volatile, but the power in between is still worth it.
Mauricio Dubón (2B/3B/SS/OF, Atlanta Braves)
It’s time to throw him a Du-bone. If I told you that he’d be one of the Atlanta Braves‘ top hitters in June back in February… well I wouldn’t have put my money down on that bet either. But it’s time to give him his flowers, as he’s hitting a lovely .329 with an excellent 7/7 BB/K over that span with 3 HR and 1 SB. We all assumed given his track record that this was going to be like so many other hot starts that fizzled (remember when Andrés Giménez was hot stuff in April?). But with Mauricio Space Cowboy’s super-useful super-utility eligibility, everyday role, and the runs he produces, he shouldn’t be overlooked even in shallow leagues despite the lack of double-digit homers or steals.
Honorable Mention: Josh Bell (1B, Minnesota Twins) – Bell is kind of annoying to write about, because these hot/cold swings are as constant as the threat that he will get traded to a contender. But the latter might not happen this year given the Twins are still in the thick of it even with Buxton down. His .460 xSLG and his rising rolling xwOBA suggest this could be an oppo taco Bell summer.
Honorable Mention: Esmerlyn Valdez (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates): Yes, I know, it’s probably too late to get him in most 12-team formats, but I still think the huge K rate makes him too risky in 10-teamers. In my defense, I wrote him up last week as a buy when he was still more widely available. And used up my best pun for it.
15-team
Cedric Mullins (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
He had wanted to get more hits and stolen bases this whole season. He was just… Mullins it over. He’s actually been over-performing his Statcast metrics in recent weeks, as his .270 rolling xwOBA is not good, and his .296 mark over his last 100 PA is also quite bad. Mullins has a .256 AVG, 4 homers, and 2 stolen bases over the past two weeks, raising his overall line to .208 with 10 homers and 14 SB in 265 AB.
The best reasons to roster him are that he is playing regularly, largely due to lack of better options, trotting out a melange of Victor Mesa Jr., Jonny DeLuca, Ryan Vilade and the like, and the fact that the offense as a whole has been suddenly potent, led by their fearless leader, Junior Caminero. If you can spare batting average and need power/speed, he’s a guy with both who has better odds to stick around than the latest flavor of the month (or week).
Honorable Mention: Owen Caissie (OF, Miami Marlins): Maybe I’m just obsessed with Marlins outfielders, but despite a seemingly unsustainable near-40% K%, Caissie has continued to crush the ball, hitting .366 with 5 HR over the past 21 days. Let’s pick up Caissie at the Bat.
Honorable Mention: Javier Sanoja (2B/3B/SS/OF, Miami Marlins): Okay now it’s OFFICIALLY Marlins love-fest week, but definitely not Miguel Sanó-ja is hitting .400 over 50 PA the past 3 weeks with only 1 K, making him seem like Temu Arraez.
Deep Leagues
Lane Thomas (OF, Kansas City Royals)
He went off-track for a while, but it seems he’s finally veering back into his lane. While admittedly, most of the damage he’s dealt the past few weeks came in that one wild game where Tyler Tolbert scored 5 hits, but still, he’s hitting .409 with a homer in 22 AB over the past week, and that’s something we would have been hooting and hollering for if it had happened the first week of April. The fact is he’s hitting rather poor on the season, just .233 with 4 HR and 6 SB in 215 AB, but there are signs that he’s returning to his old self under the hood, with an excellent walk rate backed by a 95th percentile chase rate, average bat speed, elite 91st percentile sprint speed, and a career-best 27% PullFly%. He could easily be in for a bigger summer than the notably more hyped Dylan Crews, but even if that longshot doesn’t happen, he’s still contributing enough to matter in AL-only.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Tolbert (SS/OF, Kansas City Royals) – Odds are, you already missed his best week of the year, and probably his career. But a player with this much stolen base upside, having a performance that’s enough to warrant him more playing time… you need to take the bad with the good if you need bags.
Honorable Mention: Gabriel Rincones Jr. (OF, Philadelphia Phillies) – He got off to a terrible start, but the Phillies didn’t lose faith, and he rewarded them by hitting .313 with a homer this week. Could at least have a Yohendrick Piñango-like impact. BIG bat speed.
SELL
10-team
Cody Bellinger (OF, New York Yankees)
He’s wearing your team down to the cold metalcore, so it’s time to formulate your Bellinger Escape Plan. This fade may seem like heresy, but in a batting average 10-teamer with 3 OFs, he’s not going to help you with his name. Sure, he has a track record and a strong .270 xBA, and has 11 HR and 10 SB, but we need to face some realities here. He’s hit just .114 with 0 HR in 70 AB over the past 3 weeks, and with a .280 100 PA rolling xwOBA and an unbelievably bad .210 50 PA rolling xwOBA, something is wrong with him. For those of you in H2H formats, it’s even riskier to continue to hold him, as his current performance is so wretched that he could be what’s between you and a playoff berth.
Dishonorable Mention: Liam Hicks (1B/C, Miami Marlins) – His year so far has been incredible, hitting .357 in 52 AB since his return and hitting a superb .291 with 13 dingers on the year. But the rate stats have been slipping out from him for some time, and I think he’ll be considerably more bland post-ASB, so why not sell him now when you get the second chance?
12-team
Jose Altuve (2B/OF, Houston Astros)
Altuve has beaten the odds ever since he was a scrappy 22-year-old who few thought could hit for enough power to be an MLB regular. Or strong enough to actually become a power threat. Or help a team win in the playoffs. You get it. But as Verlander and Scherzer showed this year, no player is immortal, and Altuve’s old age has finally caught up to the production and the liver spots are showing. I mean, he’s 36! Which is… 3 years younger than me. But I’m in the best shape of my life, this is MY YEAR!
Anyways, Altuve has popped 2 homers this week to hit the double-digit mark, but he’s hitting just .231 with 10 HR and 2 SB overall, which, given the depth at 2B this year, is really not cutting it in shallow formats, and definitely not in 12-team OBP for that matter. Maybe if I believed that there was a reason to believe he’d reach double-digit bags after stealing 2 (with 2 CS) in the first half, I’d care more about his peripherals actually looking better than last year, but I don’t really get why he strayed from an approach that worked so well for him when he’s still on the same team.
Dishonorable Mention: Brooks Lee (3B/SS, Minnesota Twins) – This is not a popular time for such a take, as he’s been mashing with a .297 AVG, 3 HR, and 2 SB over 74 AB the past 3 weeks. But in underlying stats, I think he’s worse in most metrics besides PullAir%, and just see regression likely in the 2nd half.
15-team
Jakob Marsee (OF, Miami Marlins)
In March we marveled at Marsee the Marlin, but he marred his marks and we moved him to the margins. See, I told you I’m not in love with all Miami outfielders! He’s been a silent killer if you told yourself you needed his stolen bases (I did this in one league, and my spot in the standings is proof). While he is hitting .278 with a homer this week, he hasn’t stolen a single base in 2 weeks, and you’re left with a fishy line of .184 with 5 HR and 18 SB. And yes, even if your league doesn’t count it, it does matter that those 18 bags came with 10 caught stealings, which puts him in the red light zone at 64% SB Success%. Now the fact that he hasn’t been stealing lately makes more sense, no?
I think that the 25-year-old will likely be facing a demotion, as he’s only racked up 0.1 WAR on the year… and you generally need to prove you’re BETTER than the replacement-level player by more than the smallest possible fraction. While he may be the best centerfielder, the Marlins are stacked with players who can play outfield, and this could be the opportunity for Esteury Ruiz, who has been much better and has stolen 19 bases in just 109 PA while flipping pancakes with his left hand, to take over. Ruiz has racked up a 1.0 ERA in far less time, by the way. Even in 15-team leagues, it’s time you Marsee yourself out.
Dishonorable Mention: Lourdes Gurriel (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks) – It’s not like I was expecting him to light the world on fire after returning from the IL. But I figured, he’s usually at his best in the summer. But not this year, as he’s hit just .224 with 1 HR in 58 AB over the past 3 weeks. With all of his metrics in the blue, outside of the deepest NL-only formats, it’s time we all grab our things and Scurriel.
