Buy & Sell 8/11 – Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop

He’s a bad boy antihero, so make sure to fly with Han Solo. Haniger has made the long layoff look like nothing, bursting back onto the scene hitting .429 with a homer in 14 AB, raising his season line to a strong .265 with 4 HR in just 49 AB. Of course, .265 with 4 HR is easy to look past when many players have surpassed the 20 HR mark, especially since the average doesn’t jump off the page.

Of course, we’re not so forgetful to ignore the fact that last year he hit 39 taters, but in leagues with limited IL spots or no IL spots (such as NFBC formats), teams may have had to cut him to hold on to more elite injured players, but I do think he can be elite over the final two months. Of course, the sample is small, but his Barrel% of 16% would be a career-high, and the MaxEV of 111 mph is already better than anything he hit last year and his best since 2018. As far as his contact, which stabilizes faster as a per-pitch metric, it’s looking great as well with a 79% Contact% that would be tied with a career-best and a 90% Z-Contact%.

So, unfortunately, his current 29% K% might be the lowest we’ll see for the rest of the year, as his Z-Contact% of 68% is one of the worst I can recall seeing, I mean that’s like Keon Broxton bad. Broxton may be a decent low-end comp, but the good news is Nellie does have real power, with an elite 16% Barrel% that has covered up for his plate skills failings. Even if he slips, he’s a rather safe bet for playing time going forward given the Cubs’ lack of contention, and there’s at least a chance that with his youth he adapts and becomes similar to Seth Brown as a power/speed threat, which is always hard to find on the wire. So if you’re either going broke for power/speed and don’t mind a low batting average floor, don’t snub the Cub in 15-team OBP formats.

There is no fantasy player more fickle than those hunting for SBs off the wire. A month ago, everyone (me included) was clamoring over Esteury Ruiz, and once that flopped, we flocked to Bubba as we’re ready for our hearts to be broken again. Thompson hasn’t had a great run in the majors so far, well actually the run is the only thing that’s great, hitting .211 with 0 HR and 3 SB in 19 PA in the majors. But it’s the minors season that has everyone giddy, as the former first-rounder hit .303 with 13 HR and 49 SB in 375 PA in Triple-A. That’ll do.

While his prospect sheen had faded substantially to the point that he was only in a large group of honorable mentions on Eric Longenhagen’s Top 50 prospects as a “lower-impact bat”, he never ran close to this much, with “only” 25 SB in 2021. The strikeouts are the biggest flaw in his game, as his career year in the minors this year was aided by a .385 BABIP, but at least his 25% was better than his previous years in the minors. The bust risk here is quite high with a poor 74% Z-Contact% and 67% Contact% overall, and his double-digit minors power has yet to show with an awful 15% HardHit% and puny 102 mph EV. But unlike Esteury, he’s playing regularly with minimal competition, and he could rack up SBs in a Billy Hamilton-esque fashion, though I don’t think his true SB talent is that level. In other words, he’s best left to AL-only formats, though 15-team formats in need of speed can spec roster him and see if Bubba Thomp is a catch or just a flash-fried shrimp.

This Terrin is looking like the command center of batting average, and you may not need to Zerg rush to grab him. The underrated bat-first older prospect is making his debut at 25 and has been orange-hot, hitting .348/.448/.491 with 0 HR and 0 SB in his first 29 PA. Bat-first doesn’t mean power, as he only hit 2 HR in 208 PA in Triple-A and so is expected to have David Fletcher-like power. But the good news is, also like Fletcher, he has not only good contact but a good eye, which helps explain his great 17% BB% as it’s backed by an elite 20% chase rate. Unfortunately, the contact isn’t nearly as good as expected, with a sub-par 75% Contact%.

Maybe I’ll buy back next year, but for now, I’m saying Seiya later, alligator. One could argue he’s performing like a poor man’s 2022 Ian Happ, but I’m also not sure I’d consider that a good thing. He burst back onto the scene following his injury and apparently then ran out of juice, as he’s hit just .159 with 1 HR and 1 SB with a 15/1 K/BB in 44 AB over the past two weeks. That brings his season line down to .252/.321/.428 with 9 HR and 6 SB (3 CS) in 250 AB, which is a fair deal worse than even the level-headed Suzuki projections entering the year.

I had figured as someone who hits the ball hard and still has a somewhat smaller sample size, maybe he’s just been unlucky. Au contraire, mon frere! He’s actually been a bit lucky with an xBA of .234 and xSLG of .403. While I hoped he’d be like a prime Tommy Pham, he has managed at least a decent walk rate, though it’s worse than his chase rate, because he’s often striking out by letting good strikes go by. His 59% Z-Swing% is just way too low and bottom-5 in baseball, and part of why his decent 9% Swinging Strike Rate explains a lot less than his lousy 31% CSW%. I get that he could have power and speed to still unlock, but in 10-team AVG leagues, I think you’re better off not wasting your energy angrily stomping around because of the Suzuki method.