Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is: Injury returners, a cacophony of catchers, and I apparently just hate the Blue Jays with a passion! Seriously, who could have predicted that they would be this bad even with Vlad rebounding with an excellent season? It may be curtains for their hitting coach, even if it’s just bad luck. Anyway, I hope you have better luck than them (if you didn’t, I doubt you’d still be reading this). So on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Kerry Carpenter (OF, Detroit Tigers)
Carpenter wasted no time demolishing pitchers like a wrecking ball. He’s had a very long layoff after his injury which had seemed potentially season-ending, but his rehab stint wasn’t too long and he returned on Tuesday with two taters and three hits, hitting in the cleanup spot. That’s more than enough for me to believe he’s healthy, and in the Tigers’ dilapidated lineup, I expect Carpenter to be the key cog to their offense and hopefully will even get to get in reps against lefties. If you were savvy you likely picked him up already in deeper leagues, but I think he’s worth trying in 10-team five-outfielder leagues since the power and average can compensate for the lack of stolen bases.
Manny Machado (3B, San Diego Padres)
It likely would’ve seemed laughable a few years ago for him to be in this column at all, and I should mention that I’m only including him here for leagues in which trading can still happen since I assume it’s highly unlikely he’s dangling unclaimed on a waiver wire. I felt the need to point out that even though he hasn’t dazzled, hitting .280 with one homer this week, he’s been strong for a while now, hitting .310 with five HRs and one SB in 71 AB the past three weeks. His xwOBA has also been rapidly climbing over that span, so if someone is overly focused on the fact he only has 18 homers on the year, it’s worth paying a bit extra to get him, since he could be one of the very best hitters at the hot corner for the final six weeks of the season.
Junior Caminero (3B, Tampa Bay Rays)
He’s more rugged than the Canyonero. Junior certainly passed the senior circuit, hitting .276/.441/.498 with 13 HR in 236 AB. Granted, given the various hitter-friendly conditions in Triple-A, a .221 ISO doesn’t exactly light the world on fire, but keep in mind that Junior did all this at the highest non-MLB level when he could only legally buy a drink in July.
Now, as a 21-year-old, the excitement for him is probably more justified for Rays fans looking for a new non-horrifying wonder-prospect and dynasty leaguers than redraft leagues. Why? Because this year, the gap from Triple-A to the majors has appeared more like a massive chasm, and even some of the biggest names like Holliday, Coby Mayo (small sample) and James Wood failed to have the Soto-like arrivals that some expected. Then again, although Caminero struck out three times in his first game, he did also hit the ball 116 mph, so we know at least the raw power will show up in the majors.
Given the weakness at the position and his massive upside, you should find a way to spec add on him in all 12-team formats in which he’s available. But I’ll also be the wet blanket to say that you’re probably better off with your main 3B option in 10-team leagues, especially OBP formats, so move your feet don’t blow up your roster like that squirrel with dynamite from Junior Senior. And remain wary of the squirrels.
12-team
Shea Langeliers (C, Oakland Athletics)
Langeliers’s power production has tailed off, but he seems to be improving on his greatest weakness, with a 5/5 K/BB over the past two weeks and hitting 9-for-15 with a homer and just one strikeout this past week.
Tyler Stephenson (C, Cincinnati Reds)
More of his damage came last week, but he still has 5 total homers over the past two weeks and is a lower-ceiling/higher-floor alternative than Langeliers, with a lower barrel rate but far superior contact metrics that play well in Great American.
Matt Wallner (OF, Minnesota Twins)
Since his return from his long demotion, he’s been really going balls to the Wallner. It’s honestly rather incredible and a true testament to how much can change in one season that the guy who was rocking a 50% K% rate has now raised his batting average up to .283, to go with seven HRs in 99 AB (112 PA), after hitting a torrid .356/.473/.800 with 4 homers in 45 AB over the past three weeks. So clearly he conquered his high-strikeout ways and became a contact king, right? Well, no.
His strikeout rate is still quite high on the year at 40%, but he’s at least moving in the right direction with a 37% K% in July, and a 32% K% in August. Still, it’s pretty freaking scary when the best strikeout rate you’ve had any month is 32%. So about that, a number that might stand out to you is .467. That’s his BABIP. Yikes. But wait! Before you panic, realize that he also has a cartoonishly, video game-ishly high 30% Barrel% and 62% HardHit%, so although he’s currently over his skis a bit, his xBA of .261 and xSLG of .565 are actually pretty decent, and I think he can keep the good times rolling for a strong finish.
15-team
Joey Bart (C, Pittsburgh Pirates)
The way he’s suddenly turned into a superhero makes me want to call him Bartman, but in the baseball world that’s still a cursed name (sorry Cubs fans). I’ll admit I quickly abandoned ship on Bart when it seemed that his issues hitting major league pitching seemed to rear their way back with a climbing strikeout rate. But he’s really improved in his triumphant return, hitting .333/.391/.619 with five HRs and 13 RBI in 63 ABs over the past three weeks. That quantity of reliable playing time alone makes him worth paying attention to, and while his season line of .273 with 11 homers may not look all that impressive at this point in the season, consider that he hit those homers in a mere 165 AB, so he could certainly keep hitting at a 30-homer pace.
His biggest change has been tapping into his hard contact, which still seems to be a strong raw skill with a well above-average 75 mph bat speed surpassing his above-average HardHit% and Barrel%, though the strikeout rate does signify some risk. On the other hand, his above-average chase rate should provide a better-than-expected OBP floor. I rate him a tier below Stephenson and Langeliers due to volatility but he could still outproduce both with a continued hot streak.
Jhonkensy Noel (1B/3B, Cleveland Guardians)
Jhonk Jams has been deservedly earning more playing time and has made great strides addressing his vulnerability to the strikeout. He’s hitting .267 with three tates in 15 AB this week, and just nine Ks in 40 AB (41 PA) over the past three weeks. A great stream option for those craving power, provided you have a backup if he’s benched.
Jonah Bride (1B/3B, Miami Marlins)
I’ll admit I let Bride run away in deeper leagues as I was skeptical the formerly punchless utility infielder could sustain power production. But he’s been the belle of the ball, hitting a cromulent .293 with five homers over the past three weeks, and an arguably better .283/.424/.543 with four homers in 46 ABs the past two weeks. With 10 walks over the past two weeks (with 12 K) he’s pulling a more OBP-heavy version of Brendan Donovan, and with regular run atop the Miami lineup, he’s worth starting in all 15-team formats and is even a viable OBP stream in 12-team leagues.
Deep Leagues
Will Wagner (2B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays)
Perhaps there’s not enough excitement about Will Wagner, given that he’s made such a big splash going 5 for his first 8 ABs. It’s certainly encouraging that he already hit two barrels and has an 85% HardHit%, which is obviously not sustainable but a good sign that he might have enough power to avoid being a weak-hitting Mauricio Dubón/type. I wanted to say Ernie Clement but he’s been better… then again that’s why I love players with a bat-first approach. He was the Jays’ 21st-best prospect after being acquired in a trade, but he could pull a Spencer Horwitz and become a table-setter if he keeps it up, and he should get some runway to try that out.
Andrew Benintendi (OF, Chicago White Sox)
He’s been pretty terrible for at least three years now, but he has been suddenly tapping into surprising power, so perhaps that swing change he had long been talking about is finally helping. He’s hitting .295 with five homers over the past two weeks, and while I’m skeptical that continues, he’s going to keep playing a lot with the helpful home park so you can do worse in deeper AVG leagues.
David Peralta (OF, San Diego Padres)
He may be the encyclopedia photo for “Crusty Old Vet” assuming you have an encyclopedia that refreshes every few years, but Peralta has been surging into relevance, hitting .440 with three homers this week in 25 AB. That’s double his total, with his season line of .268 with six HR and one SB in 149 AB, but he’ll likely keep playing while this hot and makes a solid batting average streamer in all 15-team leagues and a must-roster in NL-only.
Carson Kelly (C, Texas Rangers)
Since his move to Texas, he has been hitting hot and starting to usurp playing time, hitting .400 with a homer in 15 AB this week. Since he plays elite defense, that’s enough for him to keep getting reps even if/when he cools off.
SELL
10-team
Taylor Ward (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
With how delusional I must seem now calling him a “strong bet for 30 homers” in May, the only Ward I’m going to now is named “Psychiatric”. Ward perhaps didn’t return right from his earlier injury, as he has completely failed to resemble the hitter he was in the first half, and this time he couldn’t blame it on a fastball to the face.
12-team
George Springer (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
I should’ve known after being down on Springer before that he would have a bounce-back. But with how hot his streak was, I may as well have been attacked by a pogo stick. Still, it doesn’t mean it was meant to last, and he’s been one of the biggest decliners lately, with a .284 R100 PA xwOBA following a previous R100PA xwOBA of .392. It’s been even worse over his past 50PA at just .258. What goes up, must come down.
At the end of the day, he’s just not a 12-team player anymore, and more of a safe 15-team roster filler outfielder at best, with his run production and decent OBP the only thing justifying his high rostership in 12-team formats, especially in those with only three OF. I mean, Tyler Fitzgerald and Joey Bart each approximated Springer’s homer total in one month. He’s hit just .125 with a homer and three RBI (zero SB) over the past two weeks, dragging down his season batting average to .218 with 14 HR and 13 SB in 412 AB. Given the high volume with those totals.
Bryan De La Cruz (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Since the trade away from Miami, his production really has been the Pitts. He’s hit just .167/.186/.167 in 42 AB with nary a homer or a stolen base in the past two weeks. It’s more than just bad luck, as he’s been one of the biggest decliners in rolling xwOBA, with a pitiful .245 R100 xwOBA and an even worse .204 xwOBA in his last 50 PA. He’ll probably bounce back somewhat, but with a rather bland fantasy skillset to begin with and the hopes he’d surge after leaving Miami, it’s not what you want. Cut in all 12-team format and consider cutting as well in 15-team OBP formats.
15-team
Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, Toronto Blue Jays)
In Toronto, it’s not just the Jays that have been blue lately. Horwitz stopped flying high, as his previous .412 xwOBA over his previous 100 PA crashed to just .285 over his past 100 PA. He did smack two dingers this week, which is nice, but he’s still hitting just .192 this week, and those two dingers match his total over the past three weeks with a .200 AVG. He’s still been among the bigger rookie success stories this year, but that’s just a sign of how hard 2024 has been on rookie hitters.
Johan Rojas (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
He hasn’t been bad in terms of batting average, but the fact that his main source of value is stolen bases and he’s not doing it nearly enough. Over the past 2 weeks, he’s hitting .318 with two SBs in 22 AB, but the batting average doesn’t make a dent with such limited playing time, and there are simply better stolen base streamers in deep formats right now, given he only has three homers with his 19 SB in 262 AB on the year.
Lane Thomas (OF, Cleveland Guardians)
It might seem crazy, but he seems to already be on the small side of a platoon in Cleveland. What’s worse, he’s hardly running, with only one SB since his arrival, which happens to be about equal to his number of hits. It could still change, but I underestimated his struggles against righties.
Deep Leagues
Jonah Heim (C, Texas Rangers)
Since Carson’s move to Texas, he has continued to be hitting poorly, and starting to get his playing time usurped by Carson Kelly. He does have two homers over the past two weeks, but with a .217 AVG and only seven ABs this week, I think it’s time to move on even in two-catcher 15-team leagues.
Davis Schneider (2B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
Not only has his batting average plummeted to the Mendoza line, but his previously intriguing power has seemingly dried up. He’s hitting a horrendous .116 with no homers or stolen bases over the past three weeks and actually doesn’t have a single homer since the end of June. He should be dropped in all but the deepest of AL-only formats. I hope for his sake that he gets a big fly and gets off the Schneid.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)