It’s a Long Way to the Trop
Junior Caminero (TBR): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.
There are some baseball moments that just seem perfect. Yesterday’s reopening of Tropicana Field, 18 months after Hurricane Milton, gave us a pretty good example. Cedric Mullins hit the first home run, a two-run shot that tied the score in the bottom of the second. But as important as that was, it didn’t resonate as much as the next one. With one down in the bottom of the third, Jameson Taillon tried to sneak a 90 mph fastball past Junior Caminero. Needless to say, it didn’t work. Caminero’s second home run in as many games landed 401 feet in the left field seats in what felt like the blink of an eye. The script ended with a 6-4 Rays win and, hey, Yandy Díaz stole a base. It doesn’t get better than that.
One of the talking points against Caminero this past draft season was the switch from George M. Steinbrenner Field to Tropicana Field, a well-known pitcher’s park. According to Baseball Savant’s rolling three-year park factors, the Trop had a 98 home run factor from 2022-24, i.e., two ticks below average. Tampa’s Yankee Stadium replica, on the other hand, ranked 112 last year, tied with Sutter Health Park. Yes, that’s a pretty big difference. But even still, I’m not sure it really matters that much in Caminero’s case. That swing is something else. Sure enough, yesterday’s swat would have been gone in all 29 other parks, too. I feel pretty confident in saying the Trop cannot contain him.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Monday:
Dalton Rushing (LAD): 4-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI.
Mad Max got hurt and left early, opening the doors to a Dodger blowout, and much to the dismay of Will Smith’s fantasy managers, Dalton Rushing had the line of the night. With the score 9-1, Rushing led off the seventh by sending a hanging slider from righty reliever Tommy Nance to the seats in right-center. Rushing’s second shot of the night came on a knee-high curveball from Spencer Miles (413 feet, 109 EV) and produced the Dodgers’ 14th and final tally of last night’s bloodbath at the Rogers Centre. The 25-year-old lefty posted a 143 wRC+ across 149 PAs with Triple-A Oklahoma City, hinting at his potential should anything happen to Smith.
Teoscar Hernández posted last night’s lone combo meal during the blowout.
Cam Smith (HOU): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.
The Astros banged out 13 hits last night at Coors Field, none of which came off the bat of Alvarez. However, Smith’s breakout continues! With the score 2-0, Houston in the fourth, Ryan Feltner placed a 95 mph fastball on a tee, and Smith sent it on a 462-foot flight to the trees in straightaway center. The 23-year-old righty is looking like an early breakout candidate while slashing a robust .306/ .432/ .611. His 99th percentile bat speed is not too bad, either.
Luke Keaschall (MIN): 1-3, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.
With the score tied 3-3 in the fourth, Keaschall yanked a belt-high sinker from Casey Mize over the left-field wall for a two-run shot, and his first of the year. The 23-year-old righty entered the season with heightened expectations, considering he hit .302 with 14 steals and a .827 OPS across 207 PAs as a rookie. Last night’s jolt, though, runs counter to his MO, as he would probably be fortunate to get much past 15 home runs if last year’s batted ball data is any indication.
Brady House (WSN): 3-5, 2 2B, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Washington’s first-round pick from 2021, House struggled last year, slashing .234/ .252/ .574 with just four home runs across 274 PAs. Three more hits last night, including a go-ahead two-run jolt against Matt Svanson in the eighth, will have plenty of managers looking his way on the wire. Yes, his .983 OPS is not too shabby, but it might be best to temper expectations, given that his ability to make contact remains a major issue (34.3% K rate).
Jordan Walker (STL): 2-5, HR, R, RBI.
Walker, on the other hand, has cut his K rate from 31.8% to 26.5%. The 23-year-old righty’s third longball of the season was an opposite-field shot against lefty reliever Ken Waldichuk that broke a 3-3 tie in the eighth (377 feet, 104.4 EV). He entered the season with an 89 wRC+ across 1,039 PAs, looking like a busted prospect. However, he has flipped the script with a scintillating first week. Can he tap into his tremendous raw power more often, or is this all just an elaborate tease? I wish I had the answer.
Carter Jensen (KCR): 2-4, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Hitting fifth as the DH, Jensen broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth by launching a belt-high fastball from Peyton Pallete just over the right field wall (359 feet, 111.2 EV). The 22-year-old lefty illustrated his talent last season, hitting 20 home runs with a 136 wRC+ across 492 PAs in the minors. He has started the season reasonably well, with a .838 OPS. But his 39.1% K rate has given us something to watch out for, even if it feels like a weird, early-season fluke.
Jonathan Aranda (TBR): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
With two down in the bottom of the seventh, Aranda turned a curveball from Phil Maton into his third home run of the season (403 feet, 103.5 EV). Through 10 games, the lefty is hitting .220 with a .801 OPS. Last season, Aranda parlayed a career-high 422 PAs into 14 home runs. However, Aranda’s 131 Power+ last year, which was about two standard deviations above average, indicates a considerably higher ceiling.
Troy Johnston (COL): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Hitting cleanup, Johnston helped fuel a rally in the fifth with a groundball that kicked off the second base bag for a double. Hey, it counts. An inning later, he tagged a sweeper from Ryan Weiss for his second home run of the season (407 feet, 99,9 EV). I’ll admit, I kinda want to ignore all Rockies hitters at this point. Still, Johnston has been quite productive, slashing .333/ .355/ .600 through nine games. He showed decent ability in Triple-A last year, too, with 12 home runs, 31 stolen bases, and a 109 wRC+ across 354 PAs.
Drake Baldwin (ATL): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.
Jose Soriano put on a clinic at Angels Stadium last night and was nearly untouchable. Except for, yeah, you guessed it, Drake Baldwin. The lone blemish came on a letter-high, 98 mph fastball up near the hands. He’s just too quick! So that’s five home runs, right? He also has just five strikeouts. That seems like a pretty decent ratio.
Jonathan India (KCR): 2-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.
For my money, India might have put together one of the most boring seasons of all time last year, hitting nine home runs without a stolen base across 567 PAs. Regardless, he has shown some life lately with three multi-hit efforts in his past five games, including last night’s home run in the eighth on a 2-2 changeup from lefty Kolby Allard. Has anything changed? Probably not. But he’s playing every night and has 2B eligibility.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X) and adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
