The Tampa Bay Rays had a very interesting trade deadline.
After being identified as sellers, the Rays parted ways with several costly players such as Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, and Zach Eflin. Along with some other major league talent from infield depth and their bullpen, the Rays are now positioned to finish 2024 out of the playoff picture.
In return, the Rays got quite a lot of young talent back — along with tons of minor-league prospects, the Rays received three Major League players that can each contribute to the Rays returning to the playoffs in 2025.
These players were Christopher Morel, Dylan Carlson, and Hunter Bigge, all with varying amounts of Major League service time and performance expectations for the near future.
While the many minor league players received by the Rays will also contribute in the future, it’s worth considering how these Major League players can impact the Rays right now and how they may be used in the next few years.
Christopher Morel
As the player with the most games played in 2024, Morel also faces the biggest expectations of the three.
After being swapped for Isaac Paredes with two prospects, Morel is now starting at second base for the Rays.
Morel has had a rough 2024, posting a 91 wRC+ and negative fWAR (-0.2) in 111 games. Following a breakout 2023 season, where he had a 119 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR, Morel has taken a significant step back offensively.
The talent is still there for Morel; while he hasn’t made as much contact as you would like (33% Whiff%, 74% Zone-Contact%), his batted ball results have been quite unlucky.
For example, while his OPS is at a below-league average .673, his xwOBA of .322 and xSLG of .448 would indicate he’s hit better than his results indicate. His 12.0 Barrel% and 97th percentile bat speed would support this as well.
Morel’s approach at the plate has seemingly improved as well; while his contact rate hasn’t improved, he’s striking out far less and walking over 11% of the time.
This can all be summarized in Process+, Kyle Bland’s newest statistic, which quantifies a hitter’s production into a single league-adjusted stat.
While his Process+ has slightly worsened as of late, Morel is doing a lot of things right. If Morel can continue making solid swing decisions, as long as his power stays, his production will return.
Of course, Morel’s overall value is slightly capped by his defense. His -12 Outs Above Average are last in MLB, and while his range could improve at second base, his excellent arm strength will be less valuable.
Overall, Morel has the chance to rebuild his offensive reputation in Tampa over the next few years, while hopefully being a solid middle-of-the-order bat for a young, rebuilding Rays offense.
Dylan Carlson
Carlson, a former top prospect for the Cardinals, has gathered the most MLB service time among the Rays acquisitions. Still, much of his playing time has left for better performance to be desired.
After seemingly breaking out in his second Major League season back in 2021, where Carlson had a 115 OPS+ and 2.4 fWAR in 149 games, Carlson has since posted an 86 OPS+ and 1.4 fWAR in 270 games.
Especially in the past few years, Carlson has seen his production drop well below the standards of a starting player, as the Cardinals struggled to fit him into their future plans. While still under team control through 2027, they felt comfortable swapping him for Rays reliever Shawn Armstrong at the deadline.
While the Rays have had success as of late getting the best out of recently struggling former prospects (Amed Rosario, Ben Rortvedt), they will likely have their work cut out for them with Carlson.
While Carlson hasn’t had much playing time in 2024, his contact and power have not been where they need to be in order to be productive.
His 2.0 Barrel%, 86.2 mph average exit velocity, and .275 xSLG are among the worst in the game, while his contact skills have been equally poor.
Carlson’s defense hasn’t justified a starting spot either, at -4 OAA and -2 DRS.
For the Rays to get the best out of Carlson in the near future, Carlson would likely have to face lefties exclusively; his career OPS of .809 against lefties is well above league average, while his .662 OPS against righties is well below.
Still, Carlson is only 25 and has time to grow into an improved player. The Rays could use outfield depth with some offensive potential, and while Carlson hasn’t shown much of that since 2021, it’s still possible he will find his way back into a starting lineup in 2025.
Hunter Bigge
As the only pitcher between the three, Bigge had thrown only 4.1 MLB innings before joining the Rays at the deadline. Even with that small of a sample, I believe Bigge may be one of the most valuable players acquired by the Rays — even though he’s only a reliever.
Drafted out of Harvard, Bigge faced his fair share of injuries, stuff concerns, and poor performances throughout the minors. Still, in 2024, Bigge has shown the massive potential that he has as a major league reliever.
As one of the three players in the Isaac Paredes trade alongside Christopher Morel, Bigge now finds himself in the Rays major league bullpen.
In 7.1 MLB innings split between the Cubs and now the Rays, Bigge has a 1.23 ERA/2.63 FIP — while these numbers have taken place in a very small sample, Bigge has shown he can come straight to the big leagues and succeed without many problems.
As a prospect, Bigge’s main concern was always his command — a BB% upwards of 15% in his first two professional seasons showed that was a reasonable concern. Still, Bigge improved in 2023 and posted a 12.5 BB% in AAA in 2024.
While still not ideal, Bigge generates tons of whiffs (31.8 Whiff% and 25.8 K%) and has limited hits throughout 2024.
This has come off the back of his elite arsenal, featuring four potentially well-above-average offerings.
PLV grades all pitches except from his slider above 5.25, while his slider has returned a 39.5 CSW% and .111 BAA thus far. Stuff+ grades his four-seam at 127, and while his sliders have a combined grade, they come in at an elite 136.
While Bigge still needs to see if his command will stick, he certainly has the tools to become an elite reliever in MLB.
As Pete Fairbanks gets paid more and more and the Rays lose more of their veteran staff (Shawn Armstrong, Jason Adam), Bigge might find himself in a high-leverage role as early as this year. Going into 2025, Bigge may even establish himself as the closer for a young Rays pitching staff.
Still, a lot of Bigge’s development remains to be seen. As much as the talent is intriguing, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty about his still-developing command.
Regardless, the former Harvard student has the talent to succeed in the majors, and will hopefully continue to impress as his Major League career continues.