My Buccos were swept by the Braves over the weekend and Konnor Griffin’s flexor mass muscle strain is going to keep him out for at least a while longer. It really dampens the excitement around the return of Jared Jones. Also, the NL no longer contains only winning teams! The Reds have a scuffled a bit since Elly De La Cruz went down with a hammy and Cincinnati now sits a couple games under .500. The NL Central is still the winningest division in the league, however, and it’s got me excited for the trade deadline even though it’s still early June. But this is no time to be getting ahead of ourselves. A lot will change over the next couple months and we need stay focused on the…
Fallers
Nathaniel Lowe, First Base, Cincinnati Reds – 3% Rostered
Lowe was a riser way back in Week 7, but since then he’s slashed just .230/.305/.405 with three homers and nine RBI over 74 at-bats. Ever since the clock struck June, he’s batting just .167. That comes with a .250 BABIP, which suggests a tiny bit of bad luck, but also only covers 19 plate appearances. He carried a .318 BABIP over 81 May plate appearances, giving him neutral luck since I first covered him this season. Moreover, his process chart really highlights his recent struggles.
We can see Lowe’s contact ability and decision value both dip below the mean right around that first week of May. This all sounds bad, but wait. Lowe has the lowest ground ball rate, along with the highest line drive rate, fly ball rate, pull % and air pull percentages of his career. He also has the highest ground ball pull percentage of his career (that one is bad), so he’s just pulling everything. In fact, Lowe is producing so much pull, he might be collapsing in on himself. Is NASA still being funded? Is there a gravitational anomaly in Ohio we need to worry about?
All of this is to say I still really like Lowe’s underlying numbers. His barrel rate is over 14%, his hard rate is over 43%, and he has the best launch angle of his career. Fantasy vets will know whenever Lowe comes up, launch angle isn’t far behind. He’s currently under performing his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG by significant margins. He also still gets GABP for half his games. The only caveat is that he still sits against most lefty starters, but this is DLRF, everyone here is platooned. Seriously though, it’s difficult for a player profile to scream “buy Lowe” any louder than this.
Connor Prielipp, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins – 9% Rostered
Prielipp looked great over his first five MLB starts. He covered 25 total innings, recording a 2.88 ERA and .96 WHIP while compiling a 29:7 strike out to walk ratio. He picked up one quality start, but had to settle for a 1-2 record. However, in his next four starts (in which faced the Pale Hoes twice, the Red Hoes once, and the Royals most recently), he racked up an 8.20 ERA and 1.82 WHIP and issued nine free passes against 20 strikeouts. He was 1-2 in those games as well, which is just funny.
Even funnier fact: Prielipp allowed five homers over his first five games, when he had great ratios, and zero homers over his next four games. He really got BABIPed to heck and back over those four turns. In fact, Prielipp pitched pretty well in his most recent outing, hosting the Royals. He struck out seven while walking just one batter. But Kansas City still managed a .400 average on the balls they did put in play, and chased Prielipp in the 4th inning at with just 77 pitches thrown.
So far, Prielipp has found most of success with his slider, his most used pitch. Hitters are batting just .175 against that little hamburger. It comes in hard at 87 MPH and has been his only plus pitch in terms of run prevention this season. His four seamer on the other hand has been smashed, to the tune of a .275 batting average and .425 slugging%. I would actually like to see a little more of his curve. Hitters are batting just .160 against Prielipp’s hook thus far.
Prielipp also has an extensive injury history. His career high for innings pitching is just 82.2 (2025), and he’s at nearly 60 innings pitched already this year. He’s topped 90 pitches in four of his nine MLB starts, but has pitched into the 6th just twice and has failed to complete five innings four times. The Twins are also a losing squad, so both wins and quality starts might be difficult to come by.
His next two starts are scheduled to come at home against St Louis and on the road in Arizona. Both of those teams have had middling offenses this year, but Arizona has mashed lefties and I don’t feel comfortable recommending Prielipp for either start. I like him more in deep keeper or dynasty formats, but in 14 team or smaller redraft leagues I would let him hit the wire and treat him as a streaming option against weaker offenses.
Brooks Lee, Second Base, Third Base and Shortstop, Minnesota Twins – 34% Rostered
Lee has given us a couple very useful months already and his eligibility is a huge asset. After finishing 2025 with a .655 OPS, Lee clocked in at .720 with five homers for April and .760 with three homers for May. However, he’s slashing just .107/.133/.214 with a single dinger thus far in June. Realistically, we should not expect much pop.
Lee has one of lowest average bat speeds in the league and his exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate all sit in the bottom quartile. He chases a lot, but hardly whiffs and has kept his K rate palatable. But he also barely walks, and his poor .289 OBP would be a career high. He also isn’t very fast and doesn’t steal bases.
I’m just going to post his rolling contact chart since we’ve already established that he has minimal power, and his high chase rate means his decision value grades out poorly. Lee’s best ability is his high contact rate, but he’s suffered through a .087 BABIP in June. He did have 16 homers in 487 at bats last year, and with nine already to his name this season, a 20 homer campaign seems achievable despite his lack of big time power. He’s actually outperforming his expected batting average by nearly 20 points already, so I doubt he’ll be helpful there. Ideally Lee is a useful bench bat, since he covers most of the infield and plays regularly, but there just isn’t enough upside here that I would want him starting regularly for my fake teams.
Risers
Jung Ho Lee, Outfield, San Francisco Giants – 36% Rostered
I covered Lee back in Week 6. I thought he looked much improved since last season. He was making even more consistent contact than he did in 2025 and was looking like a truly elite batting average play. He spent a brief time on the IL, but since returning at the end of May, all he’s done is slash .587/.596/.717 with 12 runs scored and a couple steals.
There won’t be a ton of power, as Lee has just a 2.5% barrel rate, 13% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity under 88 MPH. Lee also swings a lot and doesn’t walk much, but his whiff and K rates are both in the 96th percentile and he has the highest expected batting average in the league.
I’ve included his contact chart in case my prose wasn’t convincing enough. It’s beautiful. You could hang this in the Louvre and patrons would gather ’round and say “hmm, yes, very bold indeed. This Lee chap should bat lead off and score a ton of runs.” He’s been batting fifth though, which is less ideal for scoring a ton of runs. Lee also has just those two stolen bases on the year and swiped just 10 all of last season, so I wouldn’t expect much in that department. Lee might be strictly a batting average booster, but it’s a big boost.
Nick Gonzales, Second Base, Third Base, Short Stop, Pittsburgh Pirates – 30% Rostered
Jung Hoo Lee is our current xBA leader, but Nicky Sticks is right behind him with the 98th percentile expected batting average on the season. This is a very similar player profile, except Gonzales is a little bit faster and plays multiple infield positions. Gonzales has just a 3.3% barrel rate, a 39% hard hit rate and a weak 85.7 MPH average exit velocity. You ain’t getting to the 1955 version of Hill Valley at those speeds.
Despite those lackluster power rates, Gonzales has been helpful all season. He batted .317 in April, .287 in May and is slashing an eye-popping .360/.385/.560 through 6 games in June. He strikes out a bit more often than Lee, but he walks a little more too. He’s bounced around the lineup but has consistently been in the top half over the last few weeks. And if you remember our recalibration intro from last week, the Pirates are the fifth highest scoring team in the Majors this season, just ahead of the New York Yankees. This is a team we want pieces of.
If you are still in need of a stop gap for Elly, or Murakami, or Griffin, or Correa, (it’s bad out there) Gonzo is a safe bet. I prefer him to Edwin Arroyo, Jorge Mateo, and Brooks Lee, among some of the available options.
Blaze Alexander, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Outfield, Midfield, Running Back, Baltimore Orioles – 5% Rostered
I should double check some of those positions. I mean how many games could he really get at short with Gunnar around? Blaze is looking a lot like Curtis Mead did when I suggested he should be a priority add back in our week 10 article. He’s hitting the cover off of the ball, slashing .433/.471/.767 with two homers and a steal over the last two weeks. But he isn’t quite playing full time, having started in just nine of Baltimore’s 13 games over that span. Unlike Mead, this isn’t the case of a platoon. The right handed hitting Alexander has more at-bats and a better line against right handed pitching this season.
He’s a very different player from the high contact guys above too. Blaze has below average chase and whiff rates, and strikes out at a nearly 25% clip. But he also has a hard hit rate over 47%, and a 92.7 MPH average exit velocity that ranks in league’s top 10%. He’s also fast and is seven-for-nine in stolen base attempts on the season.
He has just two dingers this year but both have come in last two weeks, and his process chart highlights his strong power output and recent bump in decision value. His contact ability has lagged behind, but Blaze has batted over .360 since the start of May and carries an xBA over .300. However I’d take both of those numbers with grain of salt since he’s also carried a BABIP north of .385 over that same span.
I still think Nick Gonzales is a “safer” option as a stop gap or super utility player for your fantasy squad thanks to his consistent contact and playing time. But if you want higher power and speed upside, Blaze is still available in over 90% of yahoo leagues.
That’s it for week 12. I’m always happy when I get to write positively about a Pirate. Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there deep leaguers.
