Hello Deep Leaguers. This is a very important time for us. The MLB trade deadline is coming up on Monday, August 3rd, and if we are on Yahoo’s default schedule, our own trade deadlines will come just a few days later. It’s one of the most fun times of the year for active leagues, and the post-deadline, playing time re-allotment can present interesting opportunities. Closer situations are the most obvious changes to watch in leagues where saves matter, but I’m always interested to see which young players break free of log jams. My short list of players I hope to see fall into more playing time include the Rockies’ Charlie Condon, the Cubs’ Pedro Ramirez, the Reds’ Hector Rodriguez, (Spencer Steer’s injury may hasten his debut), and anyone the Dodgers trade. Maybe James Tibbs III ends up somewhere since they have so many outfield prospects. If my Buccos land Mason Miller, it’s all I’m gonna talk about next week.
Fallers
Jose Caballero, Second Base, Third Base, Short Stop, Outfield, New York Yankees – 63% Rostered
Yes, that is a high roster percentage and a lot of useful eligibility. But Caballero has been trending the wrong direction for three months now. His batting average and OPS have dropped each month this year. He started the year strong, with a .267 batting average, a .713 OPS and a whopping 12 stolen bases through the end of April. He still hit well in May, but stole just two bases, and then the bottom fell out of his batting average. He hit just .210 in June and .200 in July. He has chipped in four stolen bases this month, but with that poor average and a 20:2 K:BB ratio, he isn’t giving himself many chances to run.
This isn’t too surprising, since Caballero is a .230 career hitter. I won’t even bother with his poor power metrics, because that’s like criticizing a steak from IHOP. We’re investing in Caballero for steals (pancakes), not homers (steak). But we do need Caballero to reach base, and his 37% chase rate, 24% K rate and 5.5% walk rate all add up to a player reaching base in less than 29% of his at plate appearances. Nasim Nunez and Chandler Simpson are the most similar players for our purposes (although Caballero has hit more dingers) and both reach base in roughly 33% of their plate appearances.
His rolling contact ability chart doesn’t inspire much confidence either. The stolen bases are still going to be there, but he’s been on a roughly one steal per week pace since the beginning of May, and that just isn’t worth it when he’s been such a drag on batting average (and any other scored ratios) and provides so few counting stats otherwise. I don’t mind him as a bench bat, but I wouldn’t want to rely on him as an everyday player heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Brandon Marsh, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies – 63% Rostered
It’s another high roster percentage player. I’ll admit it gets harder to find fallers as the season wears on. I have to find someone who either had been playing well, or at least has relatively high expectations. And I hate repeating fallers who have already been covered here, it feels like piling on. But Marsh maintained a batting average north of .300 from the beginning of the year all the way through the end of June. He swatted nine long balls last month, giving him 16 on the year to go along with nine steals.
But he’s had strike out issues (27% K rate) and benefitted from gargantuan BABIP rates for three of those months. In fact, his .351 mark in April was his lowest monthly BABIP so far. He carried BABIPs over .400 in both May and June. But nothing lasts forever, and Marsh’s batted ball luck ran out in July. He slashed just .149/.232/.230 with 24 Ks in 74 at bats in July.
His process charts helps illustrate just how poor his decision value has been all season. It’s a little odd to see his best power output coincide with his lowest contact rates, but his best batting average period does align with his best contact period at least. I’m not suggesting bailing on Marsh at all, but he’s had such extreme highs and lows with huge BABIP shifts, it’s difficult to know what to expect.
His xBA on the season is .269 and that feels about right for where he would end up with a normalized BABIP. He might not be the difference maker he was in June, but he’s better than the player he’s been in July.
Gavin Sheets, First Base and Outfield, San Diego Padres – 8% Rostered
Sheets was a riser back in Week 9. Things have not gone so well since then. That article dropped on May 20th, and May has been the best month of the season for Sheets so far. He hit five dingers and batted .260 with an .861 OPS on the month. He followed that up with another five homer month in June, but batted just .205 with a 21:8 K:BB ratio and a .212 BABIP.
July has brought an even worse BABIP at just .175, but Sheets seems to be seeing the ball better as he’s drawn 12 free passes against 12 Ks this month. He has an average K rate and strong walk rate on the season, but his power metrics are unimpressive despite his 74+ MPH bat speed. Sheets comes in below the mean in exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates.
Sheets’ process chart really shows how volatile his production has been this season. His May spike gave us a great month, but he’s tailed off sharply. There is reason for optimism, since his contact rate has risen recently, but he has little to show for it. It doesn’t help that he plays for one of the league’s lowest scoring teams. But Sheets is 30 and eligible for arbitration next season. The Padres are typically very active around the deadline, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sheets in a different uniform next week. If he ends up on a higher scoring team and has a clear path to playing time, he could be helpful again down the stretch.
Risers
Luis Rengifo, Second Base, Third Base, and Outfield, San Diego Padres – 12% Rostered
Rengifo never found his footing in Milwaukee this season. The veteran utility player slashed just .205/.280/.254 with no homers in just over 200 plate appearances for the Brewers earlier this season. He’s played a mere nine games for the Padres, (after crushing AAA for a week) but has already launched two homers while slashing a ludicrous .433/.485/.667 over 33 plate appearances. He must love that California sun.
Rengifo has started in six of the Padres’ last eight games and if he stays hot, I expect he’ll continue to garner playing time. I wouldn’t expect the power to continue though. Rengifo has 64 career homers in over 730 games, but he has stolen more than 20 bases in a year as recently as 2024. He carries an elite strike out rate and an average walk rate and can slot in the outfield, corner and middle infield slots.
I’ll spare the process chart here since it reinforces Rengifo as a low power, high contact hitter. He’s not the most exciting option since he’s unlikely to provide much category juice, and plays for that same low octane offense the Padres have been running out all year (although they are a little better lately). However, he does have a higher floor than some other options and is a better play in points leagues thanks to his low K rate. He could be a reasonable option for deep leaguers worried about injured wrists (Steer and Mead).
Joey Ortiz, Third Base and Short Stop, Milwaukee Brewers – 7% Rostered
Ortiz is having the best month of his career right now. He started the year ice cold, but has trended upward every month of the season. He had a .481 OPS in April, a .565 OPS in May, and a .640 OPS in June. But he’s really broken out in July with a .309/.356/.574 triple slash that comes with three homers, three steals and a high, but not absurd .340 BABIP.
His season long power metrics are not great. He’s put up an 88.1 MPH exit velocity and that’s the highlight. His barrel and hard hit rates sit in the league’s bottom quartile and he’s also relegated to the ninth spot in the Brewers lineup most of the time, which obviously limits his chances at runs and RBI.
But he strikes out in less than 18% of his plate appearances and has elite sprint speed. I’d love to see him run more, but he’s been caught four times in 12 tries, which isn’t a helpful ratio. The great news is that his process chart does suggest some of his breakout is legitimate.
It’s a long, slowly upward trending line, but the trend is undeniable. Ortiz’s contact rate has held strong all year, but his decision value and power output have slowly crept towards the mean until recently. He’s come out of the All Star break with a fury, homering twice and stealing three bases over the last couple weeks. It’s a very small sample, but Ortiz has the bat speed, foot speed and contact ability to put a nice run together. Call me cautiously optimistic he can be a helpful player over the next couple months despite his position at the bottom of the order.
Andres Chaparro, First Base, Washington Nationals – 1% Rostered
The Nationals are still the highest scoring team in the Majors. If Chaparro sees more playing team thanks to deadline deals, we are going to want him on our rosters. Sure, if Abrams is moved, that takes away a huge piece of the best offense in baseball, but I find that to be unlikely since Abrams is under team control for a few more seasons.
Anyway, after scuffling for the last two months, Chaparro has found his stroke and is crushing the ball to the tune of .323/.364/.871 with five homers and 14 RBI in July. He’s done all that damage despite having just 33 plate appearances and starting just eight games this month. The issue is that Chaparro has been on the short side of a platoon and has just nine plate appearances against right handed pitching, compared to 80 against lefties on the year. For what it’s worth he’s hit righties (.333/.333/.667) much better than lefties (.209/.338/.463), although both samples are pretty small.
Over that small sample though, Chaparro has put up a 91 MPH average exit velocity, a 14.5% barrel rate and a 52.7% hard hit rate. His K rate is a bit high at 23.5%, but he’s walking at a 13.5% clip so far. There is a lot to like about that profile if he gets more opportunities. The Nats have already traded Chris Mead to the Red Sox, but Brady House looks primed to get plenty of chances at 3B. It might take a Luis Garcia trade to really open a spot for Chaparro, but you might be too late to add him if you wait. I think he’s worth a speculative add this weekend just in case things work out.
That’s it for Week 19. Thanks as always for reading! Enjoy the Trade Deadline, and good luck out there deep leaguers!
