Hello Deep Leaguers and welcome back to DLRF. I know the header says this is Week 2 (blame Yahoo for that), but this is the first Deep League Risers and Fallers of 2026. For any new comers, this is not a buy-and-sell weekly article. I look at recent performances by players with low roster rates, try to determine if that recent performance is a trend, a mirage, a fluke, dumb luck, or maybe even a breakout. The goal is actionable analysis.
I do not love or support every player who hits the Risers section, nor do I detest all the Fallers. I’m not angry, just disappointed. Last season we opened with a strong suggestion to pick up Hunter Goodman. He was 12% rostered at the time and went on to finish the season as the second most valuable catcher in standard formats. All the eligibility and roster percentages are based on Yahoo leagues and all rankings are based on standard 5×5 scoring. Now lets get the…
Fallers
Josh Jung, Third Base, Texas Rangers – 6% Rostered
Jung debuted with a promising rookie season back in 2023. He slashed .266/.315/.467 and slugged 23 homers in 122 games. At the time, he was my favorite young 3B in baseball and I wanted him everywhere. Sadly, a litany of injuries have limited Jung’s playing time to just 46 games in 2024 and 131 games in 2025. He has been unable to get into a rhythm and has failed to replicate his rookie numbers. He posted a .719 OPS in 2024 and a .684 mark last season. He has just 21 homers over 177 games in those two seasons.
Jung missed more time in spring training, but did post a strong 1.035 OPS over 19 plate appearances, with a single strikeout and no walks. He did not carry that hot bat into the regular season. In fact, he hasn’t hit at all in the regular season, as he has started 0-17 with seven Ks.
Jung’s underlying rates to this point barely exist because we only have four games worth of data, but thus far his exit velocity sits below 80 MPH with an 85% ground ball rate, meaning an average Josh Jung ball in play would get passed by on the highway by a minivan on a road trip. If you want a bright side opinion, I don’t think the Rangers have a good option to replace Jung anytime soon so he should get a chance to play out of his early slump. As a fantasy manager, I do not recommend that level of patience here.
Jake McCarthy, Outfield, Colorado Rockies – 2% Rostered
Jake McCarthy has been a useful fantasy asset in even numbered years. Back in 2022 he batted .283/.342/.427 with eight dingers and 23 steals in just 99 games. He played exactly 99 games again in ’23, and stole 26 bases, but his batting average dipped to .243 that season. He bounced back in ’24 with another eight homer season that came with a very strong .285 batting average and another 25 stolen bases. McCarthy had has worst pro season in 2025, slashing just .204/.247/.345 and stealing just six bases while appearing in only 67 games.
This year though, McCarthy has a new team, The Colorado Rockies, which will afford him the benefit of playing in one of the leagues best parks for offense. He had a great spring training, batting .321 with six stolen bases and has batted leadoff in all four games so far this season. He looks like an obvious batting average, stolen base and runs play.
However, McCarthy has started off the season slowly, with just one hit in 11 at bats. He has struck out four times and not drawn a walk. He has normally carried strong K and whiff rates (top 20% of the league in 2024) though, so I would expect those rates to improve. More importantly, McCarthy has already managed three steals in three attempts.
With base stealers, the will is often more important than the wheels and McCarthy is showing off both already. I would ignore the early season batting average, and definitely recommend adding McCarthy if you are looking for stolen bases.
Coby Mayo, First Base, Baltimore Orioles – 6% Rostered
At this point Coby Mayo has nothing left to prove in the minors. He’s accumulated 1,600 minor league at bats, along with a .901 OPS and 90 homers. None of that has translated to the majors as he has just a .199/.275/.344 line across 317 MLB at-bats. Mayo is still just 24 years old though, and has a bit more time before we slap the Quad-A label on his chest. He smoked the ball to the tune of .378/.405/.622 with a couple dingers and a 3:5 walk-to-strikeout ratio this spring and is has been starting at third base in Jordan Westburg’s absence.
He has failed to make the most of his opportunity so far with just two hits over his first 13 at-bats. He has walked twice and struck out four times. He did steal a base on Opening Day though, so that’s something. His early underlying rates are not looking good either. His exit velocity is under 84 MPH, he has yet to barrel a ball and his chase rate is much higher than his career average so far.
Again, it’s very early in the year and Mayo still has some prospect hype around him. He also heated up late last season, smacking five homers and posting a .941 OPS in September. There are plenty of better options at first base, but third base is much shallower and Mayo should pick up eligibility sometime in May depending on your league settings. If I squint real hard I can see the argument to hold him as a potential hot corner option, and I’ll always prefer him over Miracle Whip, but I don’t recommend too much patience here.
Risers
Joey Wiemer, Outfield, Washington Nationals – 19% Rostered
Talk about a hot start. Wiemer tied an MLB record, reaching base in 10 consecutive plate appearances to begin the season. He started off 8-8 with two walks and a couple dingers before a groundout in the fifth inning on Monday ended his streak. He stands at 8-10 with three walks, and no strike outs. He didn’t even have a good spring. He slashed just .150/.261/.350 and struck out 11 times in 40 spring at bats. He also has not been a good MLB player thus far. He has a career .218/.293/.386 line over 183 games since he debuted in 2023.
And yet, the 27 year old outfielder has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 season. For what it’s worth, Wiemer’s underlying rates look just as good as his game level stats so far. He’s sporting a 20% barrel rate, a 50% hard rate, an exit velocity over 91 MPH, no K rate, and he’s walked more than our three fallers combined. His bat speed looks great and is improved over last season too.
It is also worth noting that Wiemer posted excellent exit velocity, as well as hard hit and barrel rates last year in a small sample (61 plate appearances). His 61% hard hit rate in particular jumps right out at you. He also has a tremendous fly ball pull rate over the last three seasons, which is a big indicator for home run potential. His big issue last season was plate discipline. He recorded chase, whiff and K rates all north of 33%. A Joey Wiemer breakout doesn’t sound right, but I can’t find any evidence to dispute it. Vargas rule this one and ride him while he’s hot.
Colt Keith, First Base, Second Base and Third Base, Detroit Tigers – 17% Rostered
At first glance it might not look like Colt Keith made much of an improvement between his first and second MLB seasons. His batting average took a small dip from .260 to .254, his homer total held steady at 13, and his combined runs and RBI dipped from 115 to 110. He also missed a bit of time to injury, appearing in just 137 games after playing in 148 as a rookie. However, his OPS jumped from .689 to .746 and his underlying rates improved as well.
Back in 2024 Keith’s exit velocity clocked at at 87.4 MPH, while his barrel rate and hard hit rates came in at 5.6% and 35.3%. All three rates sat right around the league’s bottom 25%. In 2025 he got his exit velocity all the way up to 90 MPH, while bumping his barrel and hard hit rates up to 9.2% and 43.7%. All three of those rates sat right above league average. His K rate increased a bit, but was under 22% and isn’t concerning, plus his walk rate increased from 6.5% to 10.3%. Those are huge gains, nearly across the board.
He’s picking up ahead of where he left off in 2026. So far, Keith has averaged a robust 94 MPH exit velocity, with a 10% barrel rate and 40% hard hit rate. His bat speed has clocked in a couple MPH higher than last year, he’s walked 12% of the time and struck out at a 25% clip so far. He’s started three out of four games, has multiple hits in each of his starts, and had two plate appearances in the game in which he came of the bench. Keith didn’t get the cover this week (because I wanted a player with lower roster %) but there is real breakout opportunity here and he qualifies at three positions. Second base is especially shallow this year, and Keith could end up being a big asset at your keystone this season.
Toby Joseph Rumfield, First Base, Colorado Rockies – 3% Rostered
Keith might be my favorite player in this week’s edition of DLRF, but with just a 3% roster rate, TJ Rumfield is the more actionable player. Also, I’m more of a scotch guy, but Logan Scotchmoor is a fake player I just made up. All joking aside, Rumfield is a 6’5″ lefty hitting first baseman the Rockies acquired from the Yankees back in January.
Rumfield had a nice season in AAA last year slashing .285/.378/.447 with 16 dingers and a 70:108 K:BB ratio over 499 at-bats. Note that low K and nice walk rate. He won the Rockies first base gig with a strong .286/.359/.554 line and five dingers in spring training. Hunter Goodman did the same with the catcher job last year, and I already mentioned how well that worked out in this week’s introduction.
Rumfield is off to a hot start. He’s batting .357 with his first MLB homer, three runs, three RBI and a 2:4 BB:K rate over his first 16 plate appearances. He’s batted 5th and has started all four games at first base thus far. His 10% barrel and 40% hard hit rate are just above league average right now, but his exit velocity is a bit low at 87.4 MPH. His 40% chase rate and 30% whiff are a little concerning. The Rockies also have a big time first base prospect in Charlie Condon at AAA right now, but they don’t have anyone holding down their DH spot on regular basis, so Condon isn’t really a playing time concern in my opinion.
With his career .365 OBP across 430 minor league games, Rumfield is likely an even stronger play in OBP leagues than standard formats, but I would strongly consider him in all leagues. I can see a .275/.350/425 season with a Coors aided 20 homers even without squinting.
Woohoo! It’s great to be back. Thank you as always for reading, and good luck out there deep leaguers!
