Welcome back again Deep Leaguers. We are either three or four weeks into our fantasy seasons (depending on how you treated the short opening week), and hitters are starting to near the 100 at-bat plateau. This is a significant point in the season because around 100 at-bats is where we see walk and strikeout rates stabilize. We’ve also gotten to see our first mini-round of call-ups, which is always exciting. Just remember that not every prospect hits the ground running, and even the ones that do start hot can have a bad second or third week. Some of them even end up as…
Fallers
Rece Hinds, OF, Cincinnati Reds – 2% Rostered
I foreshadowed Hinds’ Week 5 DLRF appearance last week while discussing Spencer Steer. I even had a “Golden Hind” thing all queued up. Rece was destined to appear in this article one way or another. Alas, Hinds slashed just .143/.174/.238 with 1 walk and 8 strikeouts over 6 games. He managed only three hits in 23 plate appearances, but 2 of them were doubles and he did manage to chip in 5 RBI.
Obviously, 23 plate appearances isn’t much data at all, so I’m not going to throw all the underlying rates at you, just most of them. Hind’s didn’t record a barrel, but did make some hard contact. His big problems in his small sample have been his 40% chase rate and 51% whiff rate. Hinds had 61 minor league plate appearances before his promotion. His AAA chase rate sat at 31% and his whiff rate at just 27%. He was also tearing the cover off the ball, slashing .354/.475/.771 with 5 dingers.
I also want to point out that all of Hinds’ hits and RBI came over his last 3 games. In those three most recent contests, he went 3-11 after starting 0-9 through his first 3 games. He’s also started against both right-handed and left-handed pitching, and the Reds only have 3 hitters with an OPS above .663. None of those hitters plays outfield.
Hinds didn’t produce immediately, but has heated up a bit after his frosty start and I think he’ll continue to get chances. He’ll have the benefit of Great American Small Park for all of his home games and gets to bat in the same lineup as Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. If you added Hinds last week, I recommend patience. Rece could use some extra patience at the plate too.
Sam Antonacci, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox – 7% Rostered
Antonacci earned his promotion after slashing .313/.500/.479 with two homers and 5 stolen bases over 67 plate appearances at AAA. The two early dingers are bit out of character since Antonacci has hit just 7 in 153 minor league games. The steals, though, are entirely in character. Sam has swiped 60 bags in those 153 games.
Antonacci mostly profiles as a strong batting average and on-base player with a ton of stolen base potential. He’s tremendously patient and disciplined at the plate. Antonacci had one of the lowest swing rates in the minors and carried elite chase, whiff, strikeout and walk rates before his promotion. Of those four metrics, only his whiff rate sat outside the top 10% of AAA hitters, and by just a single percentage point!
Despite his seemingly slow start, ( 2 hits in 16 at-bats and one caught stealing), Antonacci’s patient approach has carried over. His chase rate has jumped a bit to 34%, but his whiff rate remains impressive at just 11.4% and he’s only struck out once while drawing two walks. He’s also made four starts in left field, which could add to his positional eligibility. The one big caveat is that he did take a seat when the Sox faced a lefty starter. Antonacci doesn’t need any more patience at the plate, but like I did with Hinds, I suggest you should have patience with this young hitter.
Josh Smith, Everything but Catcher, Texas Rangers – 6% Rostered
Smith might not be the most exciting hitter, but he has been a useful utility player in deeper leagues. We can’t always be chasing the high ceiling guys. Over the last couple of years, Smith has given us double-digit homers and steals. He’s boosted our on-base percentage in OBP leagues and at the very least, hasn’t hurt our batting average. On top of that, his tremendous positional versatility lets him take over for whoever might be out of your lineup that day.
However, he’s started the season slashing .185/.284/.200 with no long balls, one stolen base and an 8:15 BB:K ratio. To my surprise, Smith’s quality of contact is actually a bit better than it was last season. His 87.2 MPH exit velocity is exactly where it was last year and his 5.9% barrel rate and 37.1% hard hit rate are both up from 2025. Even with the improvement, though, all three of those metrics sit right around the league’s bottom third.
Smith’s biggest problem so far has been his elevated chase and whiff rates. His chase rate is up from 25% last season to over 33% this year and his whiff rate has jumped from 19% to over 27%. Those are big leaps, and its almost shocking that his K rate is only up one percent over last season, and is still above league average at just 19%. His 10.8% walk rate is even higher than his 2025 mark.
I hate to sound like a broken record, but I’m going to keep preaching patience. Josh Smith doesn’t appear to be broken. He doesn’t even appear to be a fundamentally different hitter than we’ve seen him be for the last couple of seasons. He’s still drawing walks, and his early-season .235 BABIP suggests a bit of bad luck on balls in play, compared to his career .282 mark.
Risers
Moisés Ballesteros, C, Chicago Cubs – 17% Rostered
Faithful DLRF readers know I absolutely love it when players who have already appeared as fallers get back in here on the other side of the ledger. Ballesteros has the honor of being our first faller to come back as a riser this year (Jung was a faller too, but he got the featured graphic, so Ballesteros appears first). Back in week three, I was unimpressed with Ballesteros’ 3-16 performance over his first five games. But my real bugaboo was that he was out of the Cubs’ starting lineup for the next five games and had not played the field at all.
But since April 7th, Ballesteros has started in 10/12 games for the Cubbies, and has batted a ludicrous .560/.571/.960. with 3 homers. He even played catcher one game! His overall line now stands at .378/.420/.600 through 50 plate appearances. He probably won’t hit over .350, because no one hits over .350, but his underlying rates look almost as good as his game-level production.
Ballesteros has a nearly 14% barrel rate, a hard hit rate near 60% and an average exit velocity just under 93 MPH. His 20% K rate is better than the league average and his 8% walk rate is palatable. I will note that he still isn’t starting against lefties. Also, depending on how many starts your league requires to gain or maintain positional eligibility, Ballesteros may not end up qualifying as a catcher next season. That’s something to monitor in dynasty and keeper leagues but for now, enjoy the ride. This is already one example of early-season patience paying off.
Austin Martin, 2B/OF, Minnesota Twins – 3% Rostered
Martin has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s slashed .357/.500/.571 over the last two weeks. and has an overall line of .311/.484/.444 over with one homer and two steals over 45 at-bats. He has more walks (14) than strikeouts (10).
Martin’s underlying rates reinforce what we’re seeing in game. His 10.8% chase tops the league and his 14.9% whiff rate isn’t far behind. His 16% K rate is in the league’s top 20% and his walk rate is in the 99th percentile. His power metrics lag behind his plate discipline, though, as his exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates all rank below league average.
There is one issue. Martin is mostly on the wrong side of the platoon. He has 45 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season but just 17 against right-handers. However, while Martin’s line against lefties is superior to his line against righties, he’s still slashing .308/.471/385 against right-handers. With 79 steals in 315 minor league games, and strong on-base skills, Martin looks like he could be helpful in batting average, OBP, and stolen bases. Managers with an opening in their middle infield should be all over this.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers – 17% Rostered
Jung was the very first player I covered this year. He began the year in an 0-17 funk that included 7 Ks and an average exit velocity that wouldn’t warrant a speeding ticket. The Rangers’ third baseman has been hotter than the summers in Kansas City over the last two weeks, slashing .378/.442/.730 with two homers, 6 runs scored, and 7 RBI. His overall line is up to .290/.342/.478.
Jung looks much better under the hood than he did a few weeks ago, too. His 55.4% hard hit rate is in the league’s top 10% and his exit velocity has jumped all the way to 91.1 MPH, good enough to join the top quartile. He’s chasing and whiffing less and has dropped his K rate under 19% too. Take a gander at the upward trend in his process plus chart. ( I did warn you we were heading into chart season).
Jung is still just 28 years old, looks to be healthy (he has started ten consecutive games) and if he remains that way, he could finally deliver on the potential he showed during his 23-homer rookie season. The theme of this week is patience. Sometimes you need to wait a week or two to see how playing time works out, sometimes you have to wait a few years for a breakout you thought was imminent.
Good things coming to those who wait may have been our theme this week, but you don’t have to wait too long for your next DLRF fix. I’ll be back next week. Same Deep time, Same Deep Place. Thanks for reading!
