Each week we’ll look at a handful of different players whom fantasy managers should consider picking up in deeper fantasy baseball leagues. Many of these players will have the most value in larger leagues where waiver wire options aren’t as plentiful. Still, they could also occasionally be useful additions in other, more standard-sized leagues depending on your options at their position.
All roster percentages mentioned in this column are via FantasyPros as of Friday afternoon.
All 2024 stats are as of the beginning of play on Friday.
Pavin Smith – 13%
Pavin Smith has arguably been baseball’s most in-form hitter at the plate in the month of September.
Among batters with at least 50 plate appearances this month, just 10 had more home runs than Smith (five) as of the start of play on Friday.
Just six had a hit for a higher average than the first baseman and outfielder (.375).
Just three – Shohei Ohtani, Tyler O’Neill, and Kyle Schwarber – have a better barrel rate than Smith (23.3%).
No batters have a higher wRC+ (253).
Overall, Smith is batting .375 in 50 September plate appearances, to go along with the aforementioned five home runs and 253 wRC+, the slugger has added 16 RBI, 11 runs scored, nine walks, and five doubles while logging a .480 on-base percentage, and a .500 ISO.
Furthermore, the 28-year-old finishes with a reasonably fantasy-friendly slate in terms of ballpark venues.
The headliner is three games in Milwaukee starting Friday and running through Sunday.
Per Statcast, only four Major League stadiums have had a higher home run park factor in the last three years.
Following that, Smith finishes out the year with six at home against the Giants and Padres (three each). And while those aren’t the most hitter-friendly matchups on paper, both at least come at Chase Field, as opposed to Oracle Park and Petco Park.
Per Statcast, only six Major League ballparks have a higher overall park factor in the last three years than Chase Field, but the Giants and Padres’ respective home parks rank among the bottom five in the league in terms of overall park factor.
Suffice it to say, if you’re looking for a potential fantasy league winner in the season’s final week, it’s Pavin Smith.
Hunter Goodman – 11%
Speaking of hitters in a fine run of form at the plate, Hunter Goodman has been on a tear for the Colorado Rockies as of late, hitting .333 with a .368 on-base percentage, four home runs, a 1.056 slugging percentage, nine RBI, and six runs scored in his last 19 plate appearances.
Goodman’s season-long metrics (which include a .193 average, a .293 xwOBA, a 31.8% whiff rate, and a 28.1% strikeout rate) don’t paint as rosy of a picture. Still, the power is very much legit, with the 24-year-old’s barrel rate sitting at 13.6%.
He’s also benefited lately from playing so many games at home, a place where Goodman has thrived at the plate this season.
And while there are only nine games left on the schedule for the Colorado-based franchise, the Rockies will play their final six at home. The only three games not at Coors Field will come at Dodger Stadium with a three-game set starting Friday.
Dodger Stadium, it should be noted, has the second-highest park factor for home runs in the last three years, per Statcast, trailing only Great American Ball Park.
Otto Lopez – 14%
Another hitter enjoying a productive stretch at the plate, Lopez is batting .308 with a .364 on-base percentage, three home runs, and 11 stolen bases in his last 184 plate appearances dating back to August 1.
With a 19.6% strikeout rate and a .377 BABIP, there’s a bit of unsustainability but not too much where his batting average is suddenly going to plummet when the statistical regression kicks in.
But here’s the thing, there’s only a week left. That statistical regression might not ever kick in, potentially leading to Lopez playing a key role in fantasy championship matchups in the coming weeks.
Especially if he continues to log multi-hit games. Lopez has collected multi-hit games in six of his last 13 contests and has gone hitless in a game just once during that span.
And while Lopez has mostly hit either fifth, sixth, or seventh for the Marlins as of late, he’s also been providing quality fantasy value in the form of stolen bases.
The infielder has 11 since August 1, a number bettered by just 12 players as of the start of play on Friday.
Grant Holmes – 2%
With streaming options, it can all come down to opposition, especially this time of year.
And Holmes has a good one lined up on Sunday against a Marlins team that, despite Lopez’s run of form at the plate, is in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ since August 1. Miami also has the sixth-lowest ISO (.143) during that span, as well as the league’s highest ground ball rate (49.6%) and the sport’s seventh-lowest barrel rate (7.2%).
It’s an ideal spot for many pitchers from a potential fantasy production standpoint, but particularly for someone like Holmes who has quietly turned in a strong season for Atlanta both in terms of generating swings and misses, but also limiting mistakes.
In 58.2 innings this season, the 28-year-old ranks in the 83rd percentile league-wide with a 5.7% barrel rate while also limiting opposing batters to just a 5.3% walk rate.
What’s more, he ranks in the 80th percentile or better in whiff rate (29.6%, 80th) and chase rate (32.9%, 89th) all the while inducing rounders at a 45.5% rate.
At a time in which one pitcher win could make the difference in winning a fantasy championship matchup or taking home the title in a Roto format, Holmes is a must-add for fantasy managers ahead of this weekend.
Photo by Adobe Stock | Adapted by Carlos Leano.