DFS Daily Breakdown – Aug 16

Swan breaks down the DFS slate for Monday.

Happy Monday! It’s a 10-game slate with two openers going, giving us plenty of SP options. However, only a strict few should make their way into your lineups. This means you’ll need to fade the chalk and find the right stacks to build with your core of SPs. Additionally, the only genuine concern in the weather department is CHC@CIN. We should see some showers before the game that would cause a delay. As always, keep a close eye on that 7:05 PM EST lock time! Enjoy!


Implied Run Totals


We’ve got a matchup in Coors Field that stands out like a sore thumb. Roster% tend to lean that way in these types of slates. So, I would suggest looking elsewhere for building lineups. I mean, c’mon, are the Rockies a 5.7 Implied Run Total (IRT) team? I don’t think so, either.

The offenses look very uneven today, and we could see a blowout or two coming. My focus would shift to getting the pitchers right and finding enough bats to squeeze into stacks. The “Value Hitters” section might be paramount to today’s success.


Starting Pitchers


Pitching Matchups (Last 14 Days)

With two games having openers, the SP field is only down to eighteen. Furthermore, we can eliminate both SPs (Ryan Weathers and Antonio Senzatela) from Coors Field because it’s just not worth the risk. Continuing with the avoids, I want no part of Touki Toussaint at his salary. Sure, he was under $6K, but at $8400 on DK is out of this world. Overall, there are quite a few SPs I’d much rather avoid on that roster. So, keep it slim and pull from the six listed.

The first tier I would look at is Kevin Gausman and Gerrit Cole. They are certainly pricey, but both have terrific matchups and massive strikeout potential. While I wouldn’t say I like starting SPs coming off of IL stints like Cole, we can overlook that with someone of his skillset. Using either or both of these SPs should set you up nicely for any build, but you should use a stack that won’t be as chalky. That means no Coors stacks.

The second tier is Frankie Montas and Wade Miley. Between the two, I prefer Montas quite a bit more. When his splitter is working, the Ks come in bunches, and so can the DFs points. However, the field knows this, and due to the lack of depth at the position, I’d expect him on many rosters. Therein is why Miley is intriguing. His matchup against the Cubs is very favorable as they are a shell of the Opening Day roster. Additionally, Miley is giving up minimal hard contact to batters from either side of the plate.

My last tier is the under-priced tier with Cal Quantrill and Jake Odorizzi. First, Quantrill’s salary is much better on DraftKings and should leave plenty of room for error. However, FanDuel’s $8500 makes him the fifth highest-prices SP, which is tougher to get behind. What I can get behind are his 24% K-rate vs. left-handed bats and 3.66 SIERA vs. righties. Next is Odorizzi, who has a terrific matchup against the sputtering Royals. This is a pitcher with the capabilities to put up tier one points because he dominates left-handed bats, and the Royals have minimal power from that side.


Hitter Stacks


There is so much suspect pitching on the slate; I recommend sticking to two stacks that should smash and filling in with one-offs in good spots. If we are already going to get a little different in SPs anyway, a chalkier stack can pair nicely with them.

Hitting Matchups (Last 14 Days)

San Francisco Giants (at LHP Rich Hill)

  • My top stack is the Giants for a couple of reasons. First, with Coors in play, we might see them on fewer rosters. Additionally, they add another solid bat back in Evan Longoria to an already potent lineup. Furthermore, the salaries seem a little low-not one batter is over $5K on DraftKings. Lastly, Rich Hill is a good pitcher, but he is getting crushed by right-handed bats this season. Core stack targets: Kris Bryant, Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, and Wilmer Flores.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. LHP Steven Brault)

  • While there is no line listed for the Dodgers yet, I am pretty confident it’ll be a solid number. We’ve got Steven Brault facing them, and he isn’t an outstanding pitcher. On the flip side, the Dodgers have a lineup you’d make in a video game. The salaries are a little on the heavy side, but I could see the roster% in a large field GPP being under 10% for all of them. Core stack targets: Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Corey Seager.

Miami Marlins (vs. RHP Touki Toussaint)

  • This is not a stack for everyone, but rather someone that paid heavily for SPs. Furthermore, the Marlins have the fifth-lowest IRT on the slate. However, they get a matchup I want to exploit. Toussaint does a lovely job of striking batters out, but his erratic fastball command leaves him vulnerable to get crushed, specifically against right-handed bats. The Marlins have a few right-handed power bats to focus on. Core stack targets: Jesús Aguilar, Lewis Brinson, Jorge Alfaro, and Miguel Rojas.


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the “value hitters” or “punt plays” are meant to be players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Due to the slate size, we are stretching the threshold slightly.

Value Plays

Good luck!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Dave Swan

Dave Swan is an avid Chicago Cubs fan that enjoys all aspects of fantasy baseball-especially DFS. He would trade his right arm for a GIF library of Greg Maddux pitches. Swan's baseball thoughts are available at @davithius.

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