DFS Daily Breakdown – June 27

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! Today’s DFS slate features an 11-game slate starting at 1:07. This should be a really fun slate as we have aces on the mound in Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler, and Sandy Alcantara. However, on the other side of things, we have Chi Chi González, Jorge López, and Jordan Lyles. So there are plenty of spots to choose from on both sides of the spectrum. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!


Implied Run Totals


Looking at the chart, one number stands out above the rest – 6.7. The Blue Jays team total is a full run north of any other team on this slate, making them our primary target to stack. The only question is, can we fit them in with one of our high-priced aces? Let’s take a look at our starting pitchers for the day.


Starting Pitchers


As I mentioned in the intro, there’s a quartet of aces up at the top that is certainly in play for our cash game lineups. Those aces are Gerrit Cole ($11.100 DK, $11,000 FD), Max Scherzer ($10,700 DK, $11,200 FD), Zack Wheeler ($10,700 DK, $11,000 FD), and Sandy Alcantara ($8,600 DK, $9,600 FD). Because of their prices, it’s likely that I’ll only be rostering one of these options on DraftKings. I’m adding Marcus Stroman ($9,500 DK, $9,800 FD) to our table also since the Phillies implied total is just 3.7 runs and Stroman is priced up a little. All five opponents have implied run totals of 4.1 runs or less, so let’s take a look at the breakdown to see if any of these options rise to the top:


Aces Matchups (Last 30 Days)


I wish I could look at this table and be like, “That’s the top option!”, but sadly, that’s not the case. The first thing that stands out is that Wheeler has the toughest matchup, which makes him a GPP option for me. Stroman actually looks like he may have the safest matchup, especially if Bryce Harper is out of the lineup. The only problem with Stroman is that the Phillies have the lowest strikeout rate, he has the lowest strikeout rate of the starters in the chart, and he’s coming off a hip injury that forced him to leave his last start after just one inning. That does not scream “safe cash option” to me.

Next in line for me would be Alcantara followed by a coin flip between Cole and Scherzer. With wanting to pay up for the super expensive Toronto bats, I’m actually happy to be pivoting down to Alcantara from Cole/Scherzer, but if you feel the need to pay up for one of those options, I’m definitely in for that.

On the cheaper starting pitcher front, there are two options that are priced down and have matchups that have implied totals of 4.0 or below – Jake Odorizzi ($6,900 DK, $7,600 FD) and Eric Lauer ($8,100 DK, $6,400 FD). Let’s take a look at their matchups to see if one of them pops:


Lower Priced Pitcher Matchups (Last 30 Days)


I’m not in love with either of our cheaper pitching options from a cash game perspective, but if I’m forced to choose one, my lean is to Odorizzi because of the strikeout upside.


Hitter Stacks


As I mentioned earlier, the team that I absolutely want to stack is the Blue Jays, who have an implied run total of 6.7 runs. The top three bats in the lineup of Marcus Semien ($5,600 DK, $3,700 FD), Bo Bichette ($5,900 DK, $4,300 FD), and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. ($6,200 DK, $4,800 FD) are all priced up, but luckily for us, the rest of the hitters are quite affordable. We might only be able to fit in one of the pricey bats, but feel free to do whatever you have to in order to get a five-man Blue Jays stack today.

While the Blue Jays stand out as the clear top stack, there are six other teams on today’s slate with an implied total of 5.0 runs or higher – Astros, Reds, Yankees, Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals. Let’s break down the matchups to see if one of those teams stands out above the others:


Matchups Over Last 30 Days


If there’s a team that can compete with the Blue Jays for the top stack of the day, it’s the Astros. Over the last 30 days, they’ve been as hot as anyone. Like the Blue Jays, their top bats are priced up but do provide some value in Michael Brantley ($4,300 DK, $3,700 FD), Kyle Tucker ($4,300 DK, $3,500 FD), and Abraham Toro ($3,400 DK, $2,500 FD).

The Yankees and Twins stand out as cash game eligible as well and do not hate the idea of cherry-picking the value bats from the Astros, Yankees, and Twins to complete your lineup after a 5-man Blue Jays stack. From the Yankees, everyone not named Judge, Stanton, and LeMahieu are all priced at $4.4K or below on DraftKings. The Twins are also quite cheap outside of Cruz and Donaldson. The Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals make for decent GPP stacks.


Value Hitters


Finally, here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned in the stacks that I noticed when combing through the lineups:


Value Plays

Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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