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Slate Details
OwnersBox- Main slate (5 games) – starts 6:39 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (5 games) – starts 6:40 PM EDT
Weather Impact
We get a break from Coors and return to tiny, breezy Great American Ball Park (PHI@CIN).
Pitching
Thursdays are always a limited pool of games due to being a travel day for many teams, so we have a small talent pool to pick from- and the term talent is used loosely here.
Last weekend, Nick Lodolo went into Philly and absolutely had the Phillies swinging silly in their home park (and I foolishly overlooked him in my article). Today we get the rematch in Great American Ball Park. Is it the most volatile park of the slate? Yes, of course. It might not matter though, as he’s striking batters out at a decent rate and averaging a 57.7% GB rate on the contact he does allow. Therefore, I think you roll with Lodolo (YOLO) in all formats and go with the popular hot hand.
After Lodolo, SP2 gets a little more uncertain. Joe Ryan is the second-highest PLV darling of the slate, even if the Yankees aren’t striking out as much lately. Jordan Montgomery gets the reeling Pirates trying to recover from the loss of Oneil Cruz. Nick Martinez is in one of the safer pitching environments of the day vs the Brewers, who have been up and down lately.
The Tigers have shown some life in Rogers Centre – and Chris Bassitt has given plenty of reasons to doubt him from his own efforts – so even with the likely run support, he’s a fade for me. Jhony Brito may be worth a passing mention given the small slate and the Twins missing some key bats, but he may not pitch long enough to be worth it. For me, the SP2 rankings are Montgomery > Ryan > Martinez.
Batting
Falter pitched vs CIN in last weekend’s game in Philly, and only one Red got to him – Spencer Steer. He’s likely batting second and still value-priced at the top of the order. Jonathan India is always worth considering vs an LHP in GABP, even though he has cooled off lately.
The next game to target is in Rogers Centre which has featured some fireworks between the Jays & Tigers with the new outfield fences. Daulton Varsho feels due to breakout here vs Spencer Turnbull. Kevin Kiermaier didn’t waste any time getting familiar with the new confines of the park, first stealing a home run from over the wall in center field, then mashing one out to right in the 5th inning of the home opener. I expect him to exceed value even hitting at the bottom of the lineup. All three of the studs at the top of the lineup – George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – have been hitting well at home and any of them can round out your TOR stack based on position or price availability in your lineup.
A key target spot based on PLV is lefties vs Vince Velasquez. Nolan Gorman came alive in Coors over the previous series, hitting HRs in his last two games, and should stay hot at home. Dylan Carlson and his 50% hard contact rate might be worth considering if he returns to the lineup as well.
Even though Nick Martinez was mentioned above in the pitchers’ section, PLV does show some warning signs with him, and if the Brewers choose today to be more up than down, there are two bats to consider against him. Willy Adames has a 50% hard contact rate to go along with his 36% FB rate and will likely do damage if he makes contact. William Contreras is also starting to heat up vs right-handed pitching.
On the other side, there are a number of Padres to consider as they have been hitting lefties well lately. Manny Machado has started focusing more on hitting and less on the pitch clock, Nelson Cruz is trying to be this year’s Albert Pujols, and Ha-Seong Kim had a career day vs Dylan Dodd on Sunday. Lastly, watch for Luis Campusano if he happens to be in the lineup, as he has a ridiculous 80% hard contact rate vs lefties.