14 games are on our plate to digest this Friday with four of them coming a smidge earlier at 6:40 PM ET. I sectioned those off from the other 10 games in the main slate in my analysis. Let’s dive right into it.
Starting Pitchers
Of the pitchers in the earliest time slot, Zach Eflin ($10,500) and Jesús Luzardo ($10,1000) lead the bunch in pricing for obvious reasons. The Rays and Eflin take on the Royals, while Luzardo and Miami play the slumping Pirates. Both hurlers should shove in these respective matchups, but Luzardo has a higher strikeout upside, especially considering his teammate Braxton Garrett struck out 13 Pittsburgh bats yesterday. I’d side with him over Eflin due to that, along with a slight discount in price.
The remaining options are slim pickings, but if forced to take a more inexpensive pitcher, I’d take a chance on Kenta Maeda ($7,200). Yes, it’s his first start off the IL, but he has a phenomenal track record against the Tigers. Their roster has a pathetic 33.3% K% and .263 xwOBA in 69 plate appearances against him.
Diving into the main featured contest, the starters available all have their warts due to matchups or recent performances. Logan Webb ($10,400) sits at the top of the bunch but draws the Diamondbacks who have the fourth-best wRC+ (129) against righties over the last two weeks. Kodai Senga ($10,200) is a hard pass at that price, Logan Gilbert ($9,800) is erratic at the moment, and Lucas Giolito ($9,600) is never someone worth trusting. He faces Boston who has been hot (124 wRC+ vs RHP) at the plate over the last two weeks.
If I were to spend up, I’d look to Shane Bieber ($9,400) or Chris Bassitt ($9,200). Bieber hasn’t been his best, but he’s more than capable of shutting down the Brewers’ lowly lineup. They have the worst K% (28.2%) and second-worst wRC+ (58) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Bassitt gets his former team in Oakland. Need I really say more there? They stink.
Brayan Bello ($8,800) is also a solid play facing the struggling White Sox side who can’t seem to hit these days. They have the second-worst wRC+ (75) against righties over the last month. There’s a lot to be desired for the mid to lower-tiered pitchers, but if I had to take a shot on one it would be Dane Dunning ($5,700). It’s obviously risky, but the Yankees can’t hit the ball without Aaron Judge around.
Bats
Picking what bats to target is always a struggle in my opinion. There’s so much variance around batters. They can hit one on the screws and it will lead to nothing, and that’s why I tend to stay away from wagering on batter props.
Clearly, the best offense to stack in the early slate is the Atlanta Braves in Great American Ballpark. Some value bats on the squad include Eddie Rosario ($3,700), Michael Harris II ($4,100), and Orlando Arcia ($4,100). You can’t go wrong with anyone in that lineup right now. They have the best wRC+ (156) against righties over the last two weeks.
Sticking in that same game, the Reds have been seeing the ball well over their 11-game win streak. TJ Friedl ($4,200) is the best of the value variety from the team. Elly De La Cruz ($5,400) is pricy but might be worth the price tag with how well he has hit since coming up.
In the 10-game slate, the Angels visiting Colorado make for a great stack. Shohei Ohtani ($6,700) is the most expensive hitter on the slate, but Brandon Drury ($5,000) and Hunter Renfroe ($4,500) are a bit more reasonable and have solid numbers facing Kyle Freeland. Andrew Velazquez ($2,800) definitely isn’t known for his hitting prowess, but he has put up some solid fantasy production since being recalled from the minors and makes for a cheap addition to the stack.
Lastly, it’s hard not to like the Padres facing Patrick Corbin. San Diego is hitting the cover off the ball across the last month against lefties. They have the second-best wRC+ (130) over this span. Ignoring the obvious names in that lineup, Ha-Seong Kim ($3,800) has performed well lately. He is averaging a little over nine fantasy points per game over his last eight contests. Gary Sánchez ($4,000) went through a rough week but feels like a decent flier to hit one out against Corbin. He is 1-2 with a HR versus him.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)