Like most Fridays, we are treated to a full slate of 15 games today. The primary featured slate starting at 7:05 ET will cover only 12 of those contests, and those will be the focal point of today’s article. Best of luck to all playing today!
Starting Pitchers
Shane McClanahan ($11,000) leads the top of the pitching board following an early exit last start. All systems appear to be ready to go, and so should he if you’re willing to spend up. The Mariners have been bad against lefties all year and have the 2nd worst K% (28.3%) over the last 30 days when facing Southpaws. James Paxton ($10,300) and Pablo Lopez ($9,900), Freddy Peralta ($9,700), and Jose Berrios ($9,500) are in the next tier of starters after Shane. Paxton also left his last start early and draws the Blue Jays who mash lefties. I don’t mind him tomorrow even in this matchup, but there might be better options to target. Pablo Lopez is also in a tough one against the Orioles who have the t7th-best wRC+ (113) against righties across the last month.
Freddy Peralta is probably my favorite of the expensive bunch thanks to who he faces. The Pirates have been abysmal at the dish over the last month with the 4th worst wRC+ (78) against righties. He just faced them two starts back and finished with nine punchouts in six innings of two-run ball. He should be able to replicate that sort of performance today. Berrios has righted the ship after his atrocious start to the season, but I still have a hard time trusting him even in this decent matchup against Boston, largely due to his price tag.
Bobby Miller ($8,900) faces the lowly Royals and despite his recent form, he should shove. Kansas City is that bad and have the 5th worst wRC+ (79) when facing righties over the last month. Dean Kremer ($8,100) is my value pick of the day with the Twins coming into town. They have the highest K% (29.1%) and are 20th in wRC+ (92) across the last month against righties. Luis Severino ($7,400) could also be a solid value flier given that he just shut down one of the best lineups in all of baseball last start. The Rangers failed to score in his six innings of work. St. Louis has turned it on offensively lately (113 wRC+ over the last 30 days), but we’re calling this a value pick for a reason.
Bats
Picking what bats to target is always a struggle in my opinion. There’s so much variance around batters. They can hit one on the screws and it will lead to nothing, and that’s why I tend to stay away from wagering on batter props. With that being said, there is a plethora of weak starting pitching today.
Stacking either the Tigers or the Rockies is a great place to start. Neither Michael Lorenzen nor Austin Gomber is imposing whatsoever. For as poor as these offenses might seem, Coors Field will always cure any offensive woes. The vast majority of these squads will be relatively inexpensive, so mix and match in this game that has a betting total of 11.5.
I understand if you’re reluctant to do it, but the Yankees have some bargain bats heading into St. Louis after dismantling the A’s. the last two days. They have been downright awful without Aaron Judge around for a while now, but maybe they just found something after back-to-back double-digit run outputs. Matthew Liberatore rates miserably in the vast majority of metrics with a 23% CSW% and bottom 1% xERA/xwOBA. Harrison Bader ($3,600) is a bat worth looking at in his return back to St. Louis for the first time. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500) could also be in a buy-low spot here.
The Dodgers should stack up nicely facing Kansas City who has Alec Marsh making his Major League debut. He’s there 2nd best overall prospect, but will definitely be a part of his outing and the Dodgers are no easy task for a rookie, no matter how poor their form is right now.
Lastly, a fade of Carlos Carrasco and the Mets is a great look as well. Cookie has been throwing cookies to hitters all year evidenced by his 5.27 xFIP and bottom 5% xERA/xwOBA stats. San Francisco isn’t doing anything all that inspiring at the plate over the last month, but they don’t really have to be facing Carrasco right now.
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