Yeah, it’s one of those slates. Thursday’s main slate features just four games. Without further ado, let’s see what Thursday has in store for us.
Today’s Pitching Options
Luis Castillo, similar to Taillon, has rebounded a bit after a rough start. In his last outing against the Phillies, Castillo returned an impressive 35.8% CSW across six and two thirds against the Phillies. At $8,500 on DraftKings, there’s plenty of room for profit considering his opponent, the Marlins who have just a .298 team wOBA (27th) and 26.1% team K rate (second highest). Castillo has also gone over 100 pitches in six of his last seven starts.
Bats and Stacks
- NYY (6.6) vs John Gant (RHP) 2.9% K-BB, .354 xwOBA, 1.38 WIP, 5.52 xERA: In a blockbuster deal, the Twins and Cardinals swapped weekly stack against targets in J.A. Happ and John Gant. Sure, why not. Anyways, John Gant isn’t fooling anyone with his 3.49 ERA considering it’s supported by a 5.52 xERA and a K-BB% approaching zero. It’s not difficult to see a potential incoming implosion hence Vegas siding with the Yankee offense by installing them with the slate’s highest implied run total by far. This year Gant has allowed a .371 xwOBA to LHB and .340 to RHB. Rosters should center around the highest upside power bats in Aaron Judge (.410 xwOBA), Giancarlo Stanton (.343 xwOBA), Anthony Rizzo (.362 xwOBA), and Joey Gallo (.361 xwOBA). The key for tournaments will be, as always, trying to find a unique combination that could mean targeting Luke Voit (if the Yankees happen to start Stanton in the OF) or Rougned Odor near the bottom of the order.
- LAD (5.4) vs Taijuan Walker (RHP) 13.7% K-BB, .326 xwOBA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.57: Walker was very good in his last start against this same Dodgers lineup as he threw six and a third innings with eight K’s backed by a 32.3% CSW. His velocity was up and his splitter returned a 33.3% CSW, all good signs. But, I’m still siding with the Dodgers offense in this one considering the strength of their lineup, the fact that they’re facing him for the second time in a row, and that on the year as a whole Walker is most likely overperforming a little bit. In shallow formats, the Dodgers make the most sense as complimentary pieces to fit in with Yankee bats. In which case, Corey Seager (.364 xwOBA this season) and Max Muncy (.431 xwOBA) make the most sense considering their dominance of RHP. In tournaments, a Dodgers stack certainly has the upside to tilt the slate. In which case if you’re looking to be different that might mean targeting Cody Bellinger near the bottom of the order. A.J. Pollock is another potential target here too, he has been phenomenal posting a .447 wOBA since July 1st, fourth among hitters in that split (100 PA min).
- CIN (4.6) vs MIA (TBD): Since July 1st, both Joey Votto and Jonathan India have been among the most productive hitters in baseball with wOBA of .456 and .417 respectively. That is to say that the top of this lineup can do a lot of damage against whomever Don Mattingly picks to start especially considering the home run friendly venue that is the GABP. If it’s a righty, expect to see a ton of Mike Moustakas on FanDuel at just $2,500, where he is also 2B eligible.
- MIL (4.8) at STL Jon Lester (LHP) 5.8% K-BB, .345 xwOBA, 1.62 WHIP, 5.20 xERA: Lester has allowed a .359 xwOBA to righty bats this year, so Avisaíl García (.366 xwOBA), Willy Adames (.327 xwOBA), and Eduardo Escobar (.326 xwOBA) make the most sense on paper.
- Tournaments: With so many likely on Taillon, the Twins could be a way to get some leverage in tournaments. In which case, both Josh Donaldson (.384 xwOBA) and Jorge Polanco (.340 xwOBA) stick out the most as potential values in DraftKings tournaments, both priced at $3,200.
- The Dodgers are going with a bullpen game, that usually deflates roster percentages for opposing hitters. In which case Pete Alonso (.370 xwOBA), Michael Conforto (.358 xwOBA), and J.D. Davis (.354 xwOBA) all have power upside relative to their salaries.
Value Bats
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