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Holy Monday Batman! The pitching on today’s slate is bananas. And bananas are a good thing. At the high end is beast mode himself, Trevor Bauer. The Reds ace is sporting an insane 43.6% strikeout rate. Following Bauer is a laundry list of good pitchers: Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn, Jesus Luzardo, Merrill Kelly, and Casey Mize. My kids are going to bed early so I can get eyes on as many games as I can. Hitting on the other hand is going to be tough to find. Let’s dive in and find some value with the help of our friends over at FTN. As always, make sure you check their Lineups Page once lineups are out.
Top SP: Trevor Bauer, CIN ($10,200 DK, $12,000 FD) at MIL
What Trevor Bauer has done so far this year is nothing short of extraordinary. He’s currently sporting a 36.2% K-BB% and has limited the hard-hit rate to a career-best 28.9%. Is there anything else that really needs to be said about Bauer? The Reds ace gets a matchup with the Brewers, who have been awful against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Brewers have posted a .252 wOBA against righties. That’s dead last in the league.
Let’s talk about Jack Flaherty. Do I normally love him? Yes. However, I cannot pay top dollar for a pitcher that threw just 41 pitches in this last start. I need to see him built up to a full workload before I save $900 by locking in Flaherty over Bauer.
In Cleveland, we get a really fun matchup between Aaron Civale and Kenta Maeda. Both of these pitchers have been really good, sporting sub-3.00 ERAs. Looking at the hitters in this game, both teams have been good against right-handed pitching, posting team wOBAs of .398 and .345 over the last 7 days. What does all this mean? I’m willing to throw Civale or Maeda into GPP lineups, but I’m not sure I’ll be playing them in cash. If you weren’t aware, our friends over at FTN now have a Projected Ownership page for premium members. That’s a super helpful tool in making your GPP lineups.
Honorable Mentions: Lance Lynn, TEX ($8,900 DK, $9,800 FD) vs. OAK; Merrill Kelly, ARI ($8,700 DK, $8,900 FD) vs. COL
Value SP: Casey Mize, DET ($6,200 DK, $6,800 FD) vs. CHC
For a seven-game slate, there are a ton of value pitchers that I like today. Casey Mize looks like he’ll be more in the category of GPP option, but I wanted to highlight the matchup against the Cubs. If you haven’t seen Nick’s GIF Breakdown of Mize’s first start, you owe it to yourself to go check it out. In his first start, Mize struck out seven White Sox over 4.1 IP. He also allowed three earned runs on seven hits but didn’t issue any free passes. Truth be told it was a mixed bag against a very hot White Sox offense.
Today Mize gets a matchup with the other side of Chicago in the Cubs. Over the last 14 days, the Cubs have posted a .327 wOBA, which is right around league average. However, over that time they’ve struck out 31.2% of the time—most in the league. Last time out, we saw Mize throw 73 pitches. If we can get a solid 80-85 pitches out of the Tigers rookie, I could see him getting close to double-digit strikeouts. At $6.2k, Mize makes for an excellent SP2 in GPPs.
Honorable Mentions: Jesus Luzardo, OAK ($7,400 DK, $7,700 FD) at TEX; Alec Mills, CHC ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD) at DET; Brad Keller, KC ($6,700 DK, $8,900 FD) vs. STL; Framber Valdez, HOU ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD) vs. LAA
OF George Springer, HOU ($5,000 DK, $3,900 FD) vs. LAA
The Astros have had a tough 2020 when it comes to injuries. Verlander, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, and Springer have all missed time and/or are lost for the shortened season. George Springer has returned to the top of the lineup and leads the way today in a decent matchup against Patrick Sandoval. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer has Springer as the top projected outfielder today. The Angels southpaw has allowed a 5.40 ERA over 20 innings pitched, thanks in part to a 54.5% hard-hit rate. After Sandoval, Springer and the rest of the Astros will face the Angels bullpen who’s allowed a 4.32 ERA over the last 14 days. While these are exactly eye-popping “attack” stats, they are actionable on a slate with the good of pitching.
Honorable Mentions: Starling Marte, OF ($4,600 DK, $3,600 FD) vs. COL; Kole Calhoun, OF ($3,900 DK, $3,200 FD) vs. COL
2B Ketel Marte, ARI ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD) vs. COL
I dove into Ryan Castellani and the Rockies bullpen in the “Stack” section below, so check that out for the breakdown. Ketel Marte has been good to start the year, posting a .336 batting average. He has traded some homers for doubles in the early going, but his hard-hit rate is right in line with 2019’s. The only thing that’s missing is the barrels. With Marte’s plate skills, I could see him being a guy where everything clicks and he goes on an absolute tear.
Honorable Mentions: Martin Maldonado, C ($4,200 DK, $2,700 FD) vs. LAA; Carlos Correa, SS ($4,700 DK, $3,100 FD) vs. LAA; Eugenio Suarez, 3B ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD) at MIL
Value Batter: 2B/3B Kyle Farmer, CIN ($2,300 DK, $2,000 FD) at MIL
Before we jump into Kyle Farmer, just a word of warning—the Reds are a platoon heavy team. Don’t be surprised if Farmer or any of the other cheap Reds batters see two plate appearances and then get pinch-hit for. Yes, it’s a small sample, but in 16 plate appearances against lefties this year, Farmer has posted a .467 wOBA. He hasn’t struck out against a lefty yet this year and Milwaukee’s starter, Brett Anderson will probably keep that streak alive. Since the start of 2019, Anderson has struck out just 12.7% of the batters he’s faced. Anderson has been decent to start the year, posting a 3.71 ERA. However, when we dive deeper, we find a 52.7% hard-hit rate which is likely to get him into a lot of trouble soon. Farmer comes at a punt price and has some upside on a slate where decent bats are a little scarce.
Honorable Mentions: Matt Davidson, 1B ($3,000 DK) at MIL; David Peralta, OF ($3,400 DK; $2,900 FD) vs. COL; Michael Brantley, OF ($3,500 DK; $3,200 FD) vs. LAA
Lineup Stack: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (RHP Ryan Castellani)
FTN’s Lineup Optimizer has the Diamondbacks at a slate-high 5.9 projected run total. Over the last 14 days, the D-Backs have posted a team wOBA of .347 against righties. On the hill for the Rockies is Ryan Castellani. The Rockies righty survived his first two starts against the Rangers and Mariners but struggled mightily against the Astros. As he’s giving up a 62.5% hard-hit rate, I expect the struggles to continue. After Castellani, the D-Backs will face the Rockies bullpen, who has posted a 7.75 ERA over the last 14 days.
From the D-Backs lineup, I really like the bats from 1-7. That’s essentially everyone other than their catchers, who have struggled all year. Kole Calhoun ($3,900 DK, $3,200 FD) is on fire and has been leading off against righties. David Peralta ($3,400 DK, $2,900 FD) and Christian Walker ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) are also on heaters, and the Martes—Starling ($4,600 DK, $3,600 FD) and Ketel ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD)—are always in play. Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: Astros vs. Angels (LHP Patrick Sandoval); Reds at Milwaukee (LHP Brett Anderson)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)