One of the exercises to deploy when drafting your fantasy team is a rather simple one, and most of you probably do it in one way or another. Ask yourself not exactly what you’ll get from a particular player, but try to assess his range of outcomes and not only the likelihood of each of them but the requiring factors for each of them.
Tyler Glasnow could be an SP1 if he stays healthy, but how much am I going to bank on that? Pete Alonso will inevitably give me 40-ish homers and solid counting stats, barring a disaster, health-wise. It’s a give-and-take game, and we each share certain peculiarities in how we go about things.
So much does change from year to year. There is the stuff we do see coming, like the natural progression of Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson into all we hoped they could be (rightfully so), but also the stuff we don’t. Consider Cole Ragans turning into one of the more exciting young arms in the game. Sure, some people saw the potential, but for every Ragans that flourishes, you have a Sixto Sánchez, a Roansy Contreras, and a Gavin Stone, (the latter hoping to bounce back).
Sometimes, though, one can look at a change from one year to another and not find enough reasons to justify it. This, to a certain extent, is the case with the Padres third baseman, Manny Machado.
Manny Machado might feel older than his 31 years of age due to the fact he’s been around forever, but strictly speaking, he should have a decent level of gas still left in the tank. Yet, if we go to his ADP on NFBC, the former Oriole and now Dodger has taken a dive from his days as a mid to late second-round pick. Currently, Machado comes in with an ADP of 63.87, selected as early as 28th overall and as late as 128th. The closest hitters to Manny in terms of ADP are the likes of Matt McLain, Nico Hoerner, Mike Trout, and J.T. Realmuto.
When writing up his blurb on the Hitter List and placing him in the 34th spot, our good friend Scott Chu started with the following statement:
“A down year for Machado is 30 home runs, 91 RBI, and a .258 batting average, it seems.”
It’s important to keep in mind that Machado played hurt last season, as the right-handed hitter dealt with an elbow issue for much of the season and underwent surgery which should resolve the issue and have him ready for Opening Day, even if he ends up as the DH for a bit, early on.
What are some of the things that concern us regarding Manny in 2024? That’s an exercise I try to make, and there isn’t a lot to preach caution in my opinion. In the worst of outlooks, we still saw reasonable pop with 30 homers and a decent batting average, even if not spectacular by any means, coming in at .258.
I have this theory about the Padres. Coming into last year, the hype was through the roof, to the point that prognosticators were split on who was the favorite to win the NL West. A year later, that seems like a lifetime ago. Juan Soto is gone and some depth issues of this San Diego roster were exposed. There are major concerns about the surrounding talent around Machado, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. coming off a healthy albeit unspectacular campaign and Xander Bogaerrts still in town. Not to mention the man who moved Bogs off SS and into 2B, in Ha-Seong Kim.
Those question marks make us wonder about the ceiling of Manny’s counting stats. It’s true, he still managed 91 RBI last year, but that was down from the 100+ he had in both 2021 and 2022. As far as runs scored, that was the big letdown, with Manny only scoring 75, his lowest mark in a full 162-game season.
Yes, San Diego isn’t likely to have a particularly powerful offense, but that’s never been the norm for Manny’s teams. The primary point is that no, they aren’t the difference-making Atlanta Braves, but they’re also not the Oakland Athletics to bring him down to desperate levels.
For all their struggles in 2023, San Diego scored more runs (752) than they did in 2022 (708) and 2021 (729). All three times, the Padres landed in the middle of the pack in the National League. In the two previous seasons, Manny averaged 96 runs scored and 104 RBI.
This isn’t to chop things up to absolute luck, but there’s a decent chunk of it involved. The 75 runs that Manny scored last year are the worst of floors for him in a healthy season, and health has never been an issue since he joined the big leagues. For a little context, Manny’s RS% (percentage of time a baserunner scores a run) came in at 26%, after three straight seasons of 33% or higher.
The easy analysis to do is to project continued regression to the point of lowering the tier he occupies, but he did play hurt last year, and that still didn’t thoroughly impact his value. The homers were there, the average not so much, but with a BABIP (.268) well below his career average (.298), you can expect some positive regression. In fact, most projection systems have him hovering around a .270 batting average.
Assessing the consistency with which Machado produced over the last three years, it’s difficult to be too skeptical about a positive outlook for him. The quality of contact was still pretty good. The plate discipline numbers held up. There isn’t a ton to be negative about, not in a way that gives you the same risk of Bellinger not following up on his bounce back or McLain’s near 30% strikeout rate leaving him a tad exposed.
With Manny, we all know what we’re getting, and it doesn’t take a lot of optimism to see him back to his top form. Anywhere after pick 60 it’s an easy selection to go with the Friars’ third-baseman.