Dynasty Days of Christmas: Eight Maids A Milking (Prospects We’re Selling)

Adam Lawler continues the Dynasty Days of Christmas by looking at 8 MLB prospects that we are selling and their value in dynasty/keeper leagues.

Recently at Pitcher List, we have been releasing a bunch of dynasty and prospect content because we know that side of fantasy baseball never rests! With the Holiday season now upon us, we thought it would be fun to put together a dynasty series based on the 12 days of Christmas. Today, “eight maids a milking.” To put it simply, we have identified eight of prospects getting love or having received considerable name recognition that we’re selling. Get it, because you’re milking the value out of them? I don’t know. We tried.

Monte Harrison (OF, Miami Marlins) Age: 23, Level: AA

Coming into 2017 it was hard not to be excited about Harrison. The only thing that matched his ultra athleticism was his ultra rawness.  Still, it was hard to ignore a player who had realistic 30 HR/25 SB upside. The helium grew larger as he seemed to make the necessary adjustments during last season’s Arizona Fall League, displaying patience and walking more when ahead in the count.

Then, as it was for many of us, 2018 decided to treat Harrison in a pointed, unkind way. After being traded from Milwaukee in the OF Christian Yelich deal with OF Lewis Brinson and 2B Isan Diaz, Harrison was the name I was most excited about getting a fair shake after being blocked in a deeply talented Milwaukee Brewers organization.  Unfortunately, the 1B/DH Chris Davis like strikeout rate of  36.9% underscored by a Southern League-leading 17.8% swinging strike rate lead to a .316 OBP which could have been far worse had the incredible .368 BABIP not supported him.  All this points to a lack of pitch recognition, which is extremely concerning to a dynasty owner.  Even if Harrison could get marginally better and sport a .260 AVG, he would be a monster. Sadly, I’m not sure he has it in him.

Taylor Trammell (OF, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 21, Level: A+

Another ultra-toolsy prospect whose name has lined industry top 100 lists over the last year. This is largely inflated by a coming out party at the futures game where he looked a little like Atlanta Braves young star OF Ronald Acuna.  A dual-sport athlete who had the opportunity to play college football at Georgia Tech, Trammell who is pictured above opted to sign with the Reds instead. The time spent playing football allowed scouts to give him the benefit of the doubt for being perhaps a step behind his contemporaries as he refines his approach and gets used to higher-level pitching. He adjusted well initially, but he didn’t take the steps forward that many expected in 2018 and that concerns me slightly.

I notice a lot when reading scouting reports of Trammell, that they are riddled with qualifiers. There will “probably” be more power. He “may” become more efficient on the base path. While the bat to ball contact is there and there is a lot to like, I get Toronto Blue Jays OF prospect Anthony Alford vibes from the field reports. There is a real chance that he never taps into that raw power puts him in the high teens for dingers and while speed is nice, it doesn’t always translate to the big leagues, especially as he fills out and ages. See Pederson, Joc.

Cole Tucker (SS, Pittsburgh Pirates) Age: 22, Level: AA

Are you looking for a serviceable MI bat for your 16 team league?  Does that MI bat need a little bit of speed with pretty average contact skills?  Are everyday at-bats valuable to you? Do you like to describe your player as, “I guess he’s OK? I think. I don’t know. I haven’t looked at his line in a while.”? Does a slight faster Brandon Crawford get you a little excited?

If you answered yes to any of these questions, Cole Tucker is your guy.

Christian Pache (OF, Atlanta Braves) Age: 20, Level: AA

I could have waited and used Cristian Pache in the 10 Lords a Leaping piece. His glove is the carrying tool and will easily carry him to the majors where he’ll end up being an elite defender. All that said, there isn’t a ton to love in Pache’s hit profile.

For starters, it didn’t go well during his 387 PAs in A+ ball. Of all qualified batters, Pache had the 7th worst BB/K ratio (.18) in the Florida State League. Perhaps more alarming was the anemic .311 OBP and 2nd worst infield fly ball rate of 33.7%. Yet, the Braves decided an aggressive promotion to AA would remedy some of these ills. It didn’t really. The K rate spiked to 25.7% while being supported by a below average 14.1% swinging-strike rate, and the OBP dropped to .294.  To me, it seems like a Kevin Keirmaier glove carrying a Juan Pierre without speed bat.  Gross.

Dan Vogelbach (1B/DH, Seattle Mariners) Age: 26, Level: AAA/MLB

Well, I have a soft spot for the fluffy fella in the Puget Sound.  That may be why I’m writing about him as a prospect still while he’s technically a major leaguer. It’s my article, you can’t stop me.

He’s one of the first prospects I fell in love with when getting into dynasty formats. He belongs in my beer league. Like a proud papa, I want him to succeed. Unfortunately, it looks like Dipoto wants to trade everyone but Vogelbach and I wish he would. It’s not fair to watch him yo-yo’ed between AAA Tacoma and Seattle while… (checks depth chart, vomits in mouth, swallows vomit) … OF Jay Bruce gets the everyday DH at bats.

The sum of this information is why I am selling. He’s no longer a prospect and yet he’s stuck in the minors despite a very respectable and eerily similar line to 2018 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion. If you have the bench spot to spare and you’re in a super deep league, I get it. You want to hold him. That said, it’s time to start looking around and wondering if you could find Dipoto’s number to see the acquisition cost for your adult softball team to roster “Vogey.”

Luis Garcia (SS, Washington Nationals) Age: 18, Level: A+

Luis Garcia is the type of player I love to love.  Aggressively promoted, sports the ability to go 20/20, long-term outlook positive at short, billed as the next Juan Soto.  This article is about prospects we’re selling and not every one of them has to be bad.

In the next month, Garcia’s name will continue to receive amplification across sites and his value will skyrocket into the stratosphere.  If you own Garcia, good for you!  This is your opportunity – especially in situations where you are competing now – to take a relatively green prospect and use him as the headliner to acquire a bonafide star.

For those of you acquiring Garcia?  He’s worth it. He’s going to be very, very good. He’s a cornerstone of a young roster full of promise.  That said, any site that promotes an ETA any earlier than 2020 is full of it. Trea Turner has short and Carter Kieboom is waiting in the wings to man the keystone.  If you’re angling for a competing window in 2021 and beyond, Garcia is one of 3 pieces you should be seeking for your SP2/OF2.

Nolan Gorman (3B, St. Louis Cardinals) Age: 18, Level: A

Gorman is one of those prospects who was largely undervalued, became a known commodity within prospect circles, and is now overvalued. When scouts drop a 7 on the raw power, it’s hard not to take notice.  Even more so when that player is occupying the hot corner. Still there’s a reason Gorman has a 20 grade hit tool.  A 36.4% K rate at Single-A, paired with a worse-than-Dee Gordon OBP rate is no Bueno.

It was an aggressive assignment and Gorman was much younger than his A-ball contemporaries, 3.3 years younger than league average to be exact.  I can understand giving him a little more leash and eyeing 2019 as a year of growth. Yet, when eyeing the value of other 3B prospects not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the list gets pretty long when thinking of who I would rather have before Gorman.  Nick Senzel of the Cincinnati RedsAlec Bohm of the Philadelphia PhilliesAustin Riley of the Atlanta BravesMichael Chavis of the Boston Red Sox, and Ryan Mountcastle of the Baltimore Orioles all have more value when considering floor and proximity. Hell, Gorman isn’t even my favorite 3B prospect named ‘Nolan’. That award goes to Cleveland Indians prospect Nolan Jones.

Pavin Smith (1B, Arizona Diamondbacks) Age: 22, Level: A+

I don’t know what you want me to say. Those of you who drafted Smith in your first-year player drafts may have made a mistake. The hit profile is meh. The power profile is ehh bordering on woof. In more analytical terms, he didn’t hit for power in the California league. That is not easy to do. And, while he controls the zone and could probably hit for average, do you really want that in a first basemen?  He’s giving me the bad kind of Josh Bell vibes and the ETA is 2020.

You can see the writing on the wall, but you need someone to tell you what to do.  You called me up.  Fast forward a few hours and we’re at the bar. After a couple of drinks and some heavy sighing, I’m looking you dead in the eye and saying, “You deserve better.”

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportwire)

Adam Lawler

Fun dad. Generally tired. Follow me @TheStatcastEra.

One response to “Dynasty Days of Christmas: Eight Maids A Milking (Prospects We’re Selling)”

  1. theKraken says:

    I actually like Cole Tucker at his price, which is nothing. You certainly can’t sell him for anything and he strikes me as a guy who could potentially have some development left as a tall goofy kid with enough athleticism to play SS. He has a big frame and a lot of athleticism – you could a pick a worse demographic. He is close too which is often undervalued – this could be a year he takes a step forward and if he doesn’t then toss him back to the abyss. He is a flier for sure, but he is probably free. I am pretty much with you on the rest. Maybe I’ll chime in with a few of my faves below… motivation pending. I think Huira is the best sell-high of them all. No speed, no defensive value to give him a long leash, power and hit are oversold. People conveniently forget that he was the most polished college bat in his class – hitting in A ball really is not much for him and in AA he looked fairly pedestrian. Don’t get me wrong, he looks fine, but the comps and general banter around a guy with a pretty slim path to value are all over the place this off-season.

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