The Dynasty Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.
The Inaugural Major League report for the 2024 season will set the foundation for this monthly series. Each month, I will provide a brief recap of the players outlined in the previous edition of the article, followed by players who I’ve identified as current risers and fallers. If you’re prospect-focused, a Minor League edition of this report will also run monthly.
Any mention of rankings in this article is directly from my personal Top 350 Dynasty Rankings.
RISERS
Spencer Steer, 1B/3B/OF, CIN
When the Reds traded RHP Tyler Mahle to the Twins at the Trade Deadline in 2022, they committed a heist that would inspire any great bank robber. In that deal, the Reds nabbed top prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand, a left-handed reliever, and utilityman Spencer Steer. Mahle pitched just 41 innings in two seasons for the Twins, and Spencer Steer is a budding star for Cincinnati. At 26 years old, Steer is a versatile defender for the upstart Reds, but his offensive production has been the biggest surprise. In 2023, Steer slashed .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers and 15 steals en route to finishing in the Top 10 for NL Rookie of the Year.
Let’s dive into Steer. His Statcast page is meh. He ranks in the 78th percentile for chase rate and 72nd in walk rate. Aside from those categories, Steer is 60th percentile or worse in everything else. His 88.7 average EV is league-average, while his 37.1% Hard Hit rate, 6.7% barrel rate, and expected BA and SLG were well below the median line. Most people feel Steer is a clear beneficiary of Great American Ballpark, where he posted an .805 OPS with 10 homers and a 111 wRC+ last season. The flaw in that argument is that on the road, Steer was better. His .835 OPS, 13 homers, 124 wRC+, .487 SLG, and 47 RBI all eclipsed his home totals. So maybe he’s just good?
Ahead of the 2024 season, a lot of talk surrounded the Reds and their need to thin out their roster, particularly in the infield. Steer, a natural third baseman, has transitioned to the outfield exclusively and hasn’t missed a beat. Early in 2024, Steer has a .406 average with three homers and two steals. His daily inclusion in a productive Reds lineup is a huge benefit, in addition to his positional flexibility for your fantasy lineups.
On most fantasy platforms, Steer is eligible at first, third, and in the outfield. He currently ranks just outside the Top 100 in my dynasty rankings, pushing toward the Top 30 outfielders. As the Reds lineup continues to produce, Steer does as well and could ascend inside the top 100 overall and move towards a top 25 OF. I think Steer is worthy of our attention as a very good player, not just a guy who plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Spencer Steer – Cincinnati Reds (2)
pic.twitter.com/KfNpxGA6TU— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 5, 2024
Chas McCormick, OF, HOU
McCormick, like Steer, is a player significantly undervalued in fantasy circles. To be clear, McCormick was a platoon player before his breakout 2023 season, in which he played 115 games for the Astros. With that in mind, I see a scenario where his value has not ascended as quickly as his production. McCormick had a fantastic 2023 season, batting .273 with 22 homers and 19 steals, finishing as OF34, according to the Razzball player rater. While his counting stats (59 runs, 70 RBI) were mid-tier in 2023, I think McCormick’s best days are ahead of him.
Much like Steer, McCormick is not a Statcast darling. One thing that Chas has a decided advantage in is his ability to find the barrel. Last season, he posted an 11.1% barrel rate and a 38.4% Sweet Spot rate. For clarity purposes, SweetSpot% measures the amount of batted ball events with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees. At 38.4%, McCormick ranked in the 91st percentile, which means he’s making ideal, productive contact more often than not. When you combine his barrels with an in-zone contact rate of 81.3%, there are some encouraging signs for continued success.
On the flip side, he has work to do with his approach. If you add an “E” to his first name, you’ll find his biggest flaw: CHASE. At just over 30%, McCormick chases too often, which is to blame for his walk rate dipping by 3% in 2023. Making some tweaks to his approach and improving his plate discipline would give McCormick a bump in OBP and a chance to increase his counting stats in the loaded Astros lineup.
Speaking of the lineup, McCormick has moved into a prominent role for the Astros. Once a platoon bat, he has taken on a much larger volume of work and hits just outside the heart of their order. With Yainer Diaz and Alex Bregman hitting ahead and José Abreu and Jeremy Peña behind, McCormick should thrive from the 5 or 6 spot. It’s not unrealistic to see McCormick as a 20-20 guy with the upside to reach 25 to 30 homers based on his ability to find the barrel. In my upcoming Dynasty rankings update, McCormick has jumped near OF50 and is inside the Top 225 overall.
Honorable Mention
Mookie Betts, OF, LAD:
It may not seem like much, but Betts has jumped into the OF2 position, moving him to number 3 overall. Betts is a stud, and adding SS to his positional eligibility is a bonus. Mookie is off to an incredible start in 2024, batting .447 with five homers in his first ten games. Betts is on pace to score 240 runs this season, which won’t happen, but I think he scores 150, which hasn’t happened since Jeff Bagwell in 2000.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr, OF, ARI:
This is the second consecutive hot start for Gurriel after he started 2023 with guns blazing, particularly in May, where he hit eight homers with a 1.130 OPS. Unfortunately, his production fell off in the second half. Gurriel looks comfortable in the desert, and the Diamondbacks offense is chock-full of high-end talent. Gurriel may finish with another 25-homer season for the Snakes, but if he can maintain consistent production throughout the season, he has a shot at his first 30-homer season. He has moved near the OF60 position and is firmly inside the top 250 overall.
FALLERS
James Outman, OF, LAD
Shoutout to Alex Tranakis in the PL Discord for bringing up a large discrepancy between James Outman and Jack Suwinski in my rankings. The profile is almost identical, although Suwinski makes hard contact at a higher rate and has better plate discipline. With that said, Outman gets a boost from the star-studded Dodgers lineup, but enough to make him OF34 versus OF72 for Suwinski? Especially when you consider that Outman was ranked 106 overall. What was I doing there? After digging deeper, Outman is a faller in the rankings, not because I don’t like the player, but because he’s reverting to where he should be.
In 2023, Outman finished with a .248/.353/.424 slash with 23 homers and 16 steals. That came with a 37.5% strikeout rate and a 36.6% Whiff rate. Considering his inconsistent contact skills and elevated strikeout rates, his floor could be dangerously low. There are a few more things to note. Outman hits 7th or 8th most often and could platoon despite having serviceable splits against LHP, although the Dodgers outfield is a weakness. In a best-case scenario, Outman is a .250 hitter, which could be problematic for your rosters.
With all this said, I still like Outman. His power-speed profile is enticing, and if you can stomach the strikeouts, he is a viable option as an OF3/OF4. However, I lost focus on the players around Outman in my rankings and got caught up in the Dodgers hype. Outman is now in the McCormick range, settling around OF50 and just outside the top 200.
Kris Bryant, OF, COL
I continued to hold out hope on Bryant, ranking him inside my top 300 at OF67 in my initial rankings. Unfortunately, the tank is running empty for Bryant. At the tender age of 32, the former fantasy stud is a mere shell of himself. Injuries have ravaged Bryant, limiting him to 266 games over the past four seasons. When he has been healthy, Bryant has been semi-productive, often hitting for a high average, but with sapped power and limited fantasy value. In 80 games last season, he hit .233 with 10 homers despite playing in a favorable home park.
As a “not qualified” hitter, Bryant boasts a pastel-colored Statcast page. His expected stats in 2023 were a .245 xBA and .413 xSLG, with a putrid 85.7 average EV. His strikeout and walk rates have been good, but the fantasy production is not there. The underlying issue is, and will always be, poor health and the inability to stay on the field. Despite hitting in the middle of the Rockies lineup, his quality of contact metrics continue to plummet, leaving Bryant incapable of getting a boost from Coors Field.
My love of Bryant as a player is unending, but his fantasy viability has been done for a while now. I know I’m late to the party, but he’s not viable. Aside from NL-only leagues, it’s hard to roster Bryant even in the deepest mixed leagues. It’s sad to see the former MVP fall on hard times, but Cubs fans will always have 2016.
Kris Bryant heard some boos in Colorado after a strikeout pic.twitter.com/9xGw3NDAWn
— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) April 5, 2024
Honorable Mention
Esteury Ruiz, OF, OAK:
Ruiz is a polarizing figure in Roto leagues as an elite source of stolen bases, but you can’t steal first base. Ruiz hit a respectable .254 last season, but in almost 500 plate appearances, he walked just 20 times. His batted ball data was extremely poor, as he finished at, or near the bottom, of all measurables. Ruiz was demoted to Triple-A already, and if the lowly A’s cannot keep you on their MLB roster, that doesn’t bode well for your dynasty value.