The middle infield position always feels like a top heavy one. Routinely you see a handful of the top fantasy performers occupying a middle infield spot, especially shortstop, but then there is usually a significant drop off from there. Let’s dive in to see which MiLB players are trending up or trending down to start the year.
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Dynasty Risers
Orelvis Martinez, INF, TOR
Martinez has seemingly been a Top-100 prospect since the dawn of time. Over the past several years, his stock has been up and down, but the arrow is certainly pointing up as we approach the end of April.
Somehow only 22-years-old, Martinez is off to an absolutely scorching hot start. The shortstop(?) is triple slashing .333/.392/.681 with six home runs through his first 18 Triple-A contests in 2024. This isn’t his first taste of the highest level of the minors – Martinez spent 55 games there to close out 2023, hitting .263 with 11 long balls.
There is no doubt that Martinez will be able to hit for power once he eventually makes it to the majors, but his ceiling will be determined by how much contact he will be able to make. He’s posted some low batting averages at multiple stops in the minors so the high batting average in .333 is a welcome sight, as is his 76.5% contact rate, which would his best since Rookie ball in 2017. If that contact rate holds then this could be a true breakout for Martinez, one that will reward managers who held him through his down periods.
No. 2 prospect Orelvis Martinez just hit a grand slam 469 feet(!) in extra innings down in Triple-A. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/slNVgZjV6t
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) April 17, 2024
While Martinez is listed as a shortstop, his long-term home is a bit more uncertain, and with Bo Bichette manning that big-league spot for the foreseeable future, a move to second of third is the most likely outcome. Martinez has primarily been playing second base this season which could indicate Toronto’s plans for him moving forward.
Cristofer Torin, 2B/SS, ARI
There aren’t many players in the minors that are off to a hotter start than Torin. Through his first 13 games, the righty middle infielder is triple slashing .364/.517/.523 in Single-A. He’s added a home run and a steal, while also walking at a 22.4% clip and striking out just 13.8% of the time. He’s boosting a well above average 81.8% contact rate. Torin has a bat over power profile, and right now the bat is really playing.
This isn’t necessarily new for Torin – he triple slashed .333/.465/.434 in 50 DSL games back in 2022, and put up very similar production (.320/.437/.427) in 26 CPX games in 2023. That performance earned him a promotion to Single-A to close out last season, where for the first time in his professional career he struggled, hitting just .236. He was just 18-years-old though, playing against much older competition.
While Torin doesn’t have a ton of power, he does project to add value on the basepaths. In 2023, he swiped 21 bases in just 66 games, while getting caught just four times. For now he’s looking like a bat that should advance quickly though the minors, but whose ultimately ceiling will be determined by whether or not a power surge develops.
Jefferson Rojas, SS, CHC
Rojas emerged as a name to know, and borderline Top 100 prospect, with a very productive 2023 at Single-A. As an 18-year-old, the shortstop triple slashed .276/.345/.404, while recording seven home runs and 13 steals in 70 games. Like Torin, Rojas was young for the level. But despite playing against older competition, the teenager didn’t struggle with strikeouts (19.9%) or contact (76.9).
Well the promising young middle infielder has been off to an even better start at a higher level in 2024, hitting .328 with two home runs and three steals through 14 High-A contests. His strikeout rate and contact rate have both improved, and continued production like this will cement Rojas as an easy top-100 prospect. The window to buy him in your league may be closing.
Honorable Mentions
Carson Williams, SS, TBR: It’s difficult to put Williams as a true “riser” as he was already considered one of the top prospects in the game. Unlike a lot of “shortstop” prospects, Williams is well-regarded for his defensive abilities so shortstop should be considered his long-term home, which is always a plus for fantasy purposes.
Williams is off to a scorching start at Double-A, triple slashing .357/.400/.625 with three home runs and four steals through 13 games. He has the potential to be a fantasy star, as this type of performance is indicating, but there is still some profile risk here given his strikeout tendencies (28.3% so far).
#Rays No. 2 prospect Carson Williams recorded the third two-homer game of his career during Thursday's victory. @USAFRecruiting #AimHigh pic.twitter.com/uJK0xquUMi
— Montgomery Biscuits (@BiscuitBaseball) April 23, 2024
Jacob Wilson, SS, OAK: The A’s took Wilson with the sixth pick in the draft. Coming out of Grand Canyon University, Wilson was considered a glove-first prospect with a hit-over-power approach at the plate. Well it’s only 12 Double-A games but Wilson is showing off some pop, posting a .227 ISO thanks to two home runs and four doubles. I’m still not sure I completely buy this as a true power breakout, but Wilson should be more firmly on radar’s in case he does keep it up.
Dynasty Fallers
Sebastian Walcott, SS, TEX
Walcott is barely 18 years old and yet it feels like his stock value has hit a wide range of highs and lows. Nine months ago, there was some chatter of Walcott showing top five overall prospect potential. From June 24 through July 24, Walcott tore up the CPX, triple slashing .346/.386/.679 with some highlight-worthy titanic home runs. He stumbled a bit from there, and his overall CPX line closed at .273/.325/.524 with seven home runs and nine steals in 35 games. The power and speed were on full display, but pessimists noted that he only walked 6.4% of the time while striking out at a 32.5% clip. Optimists could hand wave this given how young he was.
He closed 2023 with a four-game cup of coffee at High-A, and that’s the level that Texas has decided to start him at in 2024. That’s an aggressive assignment for an 18-year-old, especially one with strikeout issues. So far he has looked overmatched, hitting just .157 with a 35.1% strikeout rate in 14 games. You have to wonder if he would have been better off starting Single-A, and while Walcott will certainly adjust at some point, the strikeout rates consistently being north of 30% is a big red flag. Walcott is also likely to move off of shortstop down the line, perhaps before he even makes it to the bigs.
Kyren Paris, SS, LAA
Paris has been an intriguing prospect for years now, but really cemented himself as a name to know in 2023. As an age-21 player in Double-A, Paris triple slashed .255/.393/.417 in 113 games. Oh, and he added 14 home runs and 44 steals. We all knew that Paris could steal bases (he swiped 28 in 89 games at High-A in 2022), but the shortstop showing off some power elevated his profile to new heights.
Though Paris’ profile has has high strikeout rates throughout his minor league career, they’ve unfortunately ticked up to an alarming degree. It’s only 11 games, so there is plenty of time to turn it around, but Paris is currently striking out 40.4% of the time and his contact rate has dipped to a career-worst 54%. Even if he does turn it around, though, the strikeouts here are a bit too problematic for someone who doesn’t offer elite upside. Ultimately it feels more likely that Paris’ role in the majors may be more of a utility bench piece.
Honorable Mentions
Luisangel Acuña, 2B/SS, NYM: Hmmm Acuña is one of those players that is difficult to get a pulse for. In 2022, he struggled when he got Double-A after demolishing High-A. Then he adjusted at Double-A in 2023, putting up a .315/.377/.453 triple slash while stealing 42 bases in 84 games with Texas before struggling at Double-A after being traded to the Mets.
Now, he’s starting 2024 at Triple-A and he’s hitting just .205. He’s not striking out at an alarming amount or anything and he will likely adjust to the new level in time, but the overall inconsistency in Acuña’s profile has led to a career .777 OPS. That’s fine enough, but it feels like he is value a bit higher than his upside would indicate.
Adael Amador, 2B, COL: Amador has also been a bit of a curious case. He broke out at Single-A in 2022, triple slashing .292/.415/.445 with 15 home runs and 26 steals in 115 games. Amador spent a good chunk of 2023 proving that his previous season was no fluke, hitting .302 at High-A while notching nine home runs and 12 steals in 54 games. He missed seven weeks of the season due to a hamate injury, so we couldn’t get an extended look to see if Amador’s power surge (.212 ISO) was for real.
Amador’s calling card has always been his approach. For his minor league career, he has significantly more walks (164) than strikeouts (137). He simply doesn’t swing and miss often. That still has been the case through 11 games at Double-A to kick off 2024 – the second baseman has logged 11 walks against four strikeouts. The problem is that he isn’t actually doing anything when he puts the ball in play. So far, Amador is hitting just .105, and all four of his hits have been singles. It’s possible that hamate injury is still lingering or that it is going to take him some time to adjust to Double-A pitching, but like Acuña above, Amador is a very solid prospect whose perceived value might be higher than what it is in actuality.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter)