The Minor League season is now in full force as the Complex leagues have finally kicked off beginning on May 4th, 2024. For full-season leagues, approximately 35 games have been played, and while the sample sizes are small-ish, we have a realistic idea of who the early standouts are. Each month, I will provide a brief recap of the players outlined in the previous edition of the article, followed by players who identified as current risers and fallers. If you’re MLB dynasty-focused, a Major League edition of this report will also run monthly.
RECAP
Risers
Jonny Farmelo, SEA: The Mariners must be elated with Farmelo’s early performance. He’s up to a .270/.410/.383 slash with three homers and 12 steals. After a sluggish start to April (.233, 32% K rate), Farmelo settled down in May. This month, he’s batting .309 with 14 walks to 16 strikeouts. He has yet to homer this month but does have a .457 OBP and six steals.
Spencer Jones, NYY: Jones began the 2024 season on the IL with a stiff neck but returned on April 13th. In 26 games, Jones has slumped to a .229/.229/.343 slash with a 35.2% strikeout rate and just two homers. The metrics aren’t good early. His contact rate is down over 9 points to 64%, and his Whiff rate is up 5 points to 32%. I’m not overly concerned with Jones. With his size and long-levered swing, higher strikeout rates are inevitable, but I want to see that contact rate back to 70% or better.
Fallers
Zac Veen, COL: Nailed it! Just kidding. Give me an early L on Veen, he’s been incredible. Since the initial article was published, I’ve been anxiously anticipating the write-up for this month. Veen is scorching hot and doing what I said he wouldn’t do, hitting home runs. In 27 games, Veen is batting .337 with five homers, nine steals, and a 191 wRC+. He leads the prospect-laden Eastern League in batting average, ranks second in OBP, and is third in SLG and OPS. Hartford is a notorious pitcher-friendly environment, but Veen is not phased. Veen has been so good that I considered putting him back on the list this month as a riser.
George Valera, CLE: After missing the first 30 games with a hamstring injury, Valera returned on May 1st and is hitting .214 with two homers. In a small sample, Valera has an 18.8% walk rate, and entering play on Friday, he had reached base in ten straight games.
RISERS
Cole Carrigg, COL
Carrigg is a name that will be on everyone’s radar, particularly those who love high-energy guys with significant carrying tools. The switch-hitting outfielder was selected in the Competitive Balance round last year with pick 65 overall. Carrigg starred at San Diego State, where he slashed .313/.403/.482 during his junior season with two homers and 24 steals, earning First Team All-Mountain West Honors. Following the Draft, he debuted in Rookie ball but ascended to low-A Fresno. Carrigg played 36 games to close out 2023, hitting five homers with 13 steals while maintaining a sub-20% strikeout rate. So far this season, Carrigg has three homers and 14 steals in 25 games at High-A. His strikeout rate has dipped to 12%, with a walk rate north of 10%, albeit in a small-ish sample.
Carrigg’s has two carrying tools in fantasy. He profiles as a good source of batting average and has plus speed. Carrigg is making contact at an 82.3% clip this season after posting a nearly 80% mark last year. His line drive rate is down from 26% last year to 20% in early action, but I’m hoping for a regression back to the higher number. With that would come an improvement on his 46.3% ground ball rate, which I’d love to see if he’s playing his games at Coors Field. On the base paths, Carrigg has proven to be both efficient and effective. In 33 attempts, he has converted 27 in stolen bases (81.8%) and does not appear to be slowing down. We’ve seen the Rockies’ have an organizational push for stolen bases in the Minors recently (i.e. Zac Veen, Brenton Doyle) and have great success doing so. Given the aggressive nature of Carrigg’s style of play, I’d anticipate his stolen base output to reach the next level. In addition, Carrigg is considered an above-average defender at multiple positions, including the outfield, shortstop, and catcher, and has a consensus 70-grade arm.
I have been as aggressive with my ranking of Carrigg as he is on the bases, moving him into my Top 125 prospects. My lone question about Carrigg is what his power looks like. His production (8 homers in 233 at-bats) is nothing extraordinary, and we have limited data on the quality of his contact. We know his swing is violent, provides a ton of bat speed, and makes consistent contact. His propensity to hit the ball on a line indicates his power may not reach a peak of more than 10-15 homers, but he still has value as a Dynasty asset. Carrigg has exciting upside as a base stealer and is the prototypical leadoff hitter who will play in a favorable hitting environment in Colorado.
Center field, shortstop, catcher … Cole Carrigg gets after it.
The @Rockies' No. 8 prospect — who has quite the defensive résumé — lays out to make a stellar grab for the @spokaneindians. pic.twitter.com/LgkIsmktbV
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 16, 2024
Justin Crawford, PHI
Being the son of an ex-MLB All-Star is a daunting task. Although some players have succeeded (Bo Bichette, Bobby Witt Jr), many have struggled (Cavan Biggio, Druw Jones). Crawford is the son of Red Sox legend Carl Crawford (sorry, I had to) and was the 17th overall pick in the 2022 Draft. The skill set is similar to his dad’s. He is an outstanding athlete with elite speed and rates well as a defender. The remaining tools are still developing, but if nothing else, Crawford is a blazer on the bases. In 87 games last season as a 19-year-old, Crawford batted .332 with three homers and 47 steals, playing across two levels of A-ball. His advanced approach showed up in a sub-20% strikeout rate and an on-base percentage shy of .400. In early action this year, Crawford has two homers and 11 steals, playing his second season at High-A Clearwater after 18 games there to close 2023.
The big shove for Crawford is his consensus 70-grade speed. Even if he added bulk to his frame in the future, I believe he would remain a viable threat on the bases. Early estimates are looking at a guy who consistently can steal 30+ bases. His combination of speed and defensive prowess should keep him in the lineup every day, even if the bat is slower to come along. One of the most encouraging signs for Crawford early this season is that in-game power is showing promise. He already has two homers this season, and with his max exit velocity reaching 108mph, I think it’s coming. It’s important to consider that Crawford is already making better-than-average zone contact, improving to nearly 82% this season, up from 78% last year. Half the battle for young hitters is to make contact while the rest of the profile fills in. While there are some underlying batted ball issues that I’ve outlined below, I think they’ll improve with continued maturity in the box.
Crawford does not come without risk. One obvious downside is hitting the ball on the ground too much. And by too much, I mean A LOT. His groundball rate is 68.8%. While it’s an improvement over last season, that mark is horrifically high. If there is a silver lining, it’s a career .391 BABIP due to his speed. However, that’s not a sustainable rate in the big leagues. The other concern is his spray chart, which has proven inconsistent since his debut. The distribution has fluctuated from predominantly opposite field, heavy to the pull side and back. Crawford had a near-even distribution last season but has regressed to over 50% opposite field early in 2024. I’m hopeful the distribution evens out or leans more to the pull side, where his power will peak. With just over 500 at-bats in the Minors over three seasons, it’s premature to label Crawford as a slap-hitter or lacking pop. The skill set for the 20-year-old is intriguing, and added power would only improve his value. I’m comfortable ranking Crawford inside my top 75 prospects with a watchful eye on continued growth in the 2024 season.
Justin Crawford triples to the opposite field alley and eventually scores on an Otto Kemp sacrifice fly … We won’t talk about the slide into third pic.twitter.com/Ird8mrro2a
— Mitch Rupert (@Mitch_Rupert) April 25, 2024
Honorable Mention
Robert Calaz, COL: The Rockies have a solid core of young outfielders in their system, which includes Carrigg and Robert Calaz. Calaz is a big, physical 18-year-old from the Dominican who had a very impressive 2023. In 43 games, Calaz slashed .325/.423/.561 with seven homers in the hitter-friendly DSL. He profiles with plus raw power and above-average speed playing exclusively in centerfield. Calaz will make his stateside debut in the Arizona Complex League and should be a fast riser in that program.
Luis Baez, HOU: Baez had a ton of helium entering 2024 after a strong showing as a 19-year-old in A-Ball last season. The Astros paid Baez just over $1M in January 2022, and he has yet to disappoint. At 6’1, 225 lbs, Baez is already physically developed, evidenced by his easy power and atypical exit velocities. There are definite swing-and-miss concerns with Baez, but his home run upside is too tantalizing to pass up.
FALLERS
Chase Davis, STL
I’m willing to bet that many fantasy players are frustrated with Chase Davis, and rightfully so. The cost of acquiring Davis was a 2nd/3rd round pick in your most recent FYPD drafts. Davis has fallen out of favor despite the helium he built after playing at Arizona. Collegiately, Davis posted high walk rates, hit for average, and was above-average defensively. His 6’1, 215 lb frame was athletic, and he showed real upside with the power. Things haven’t clicked for Davis since his selection as the 21st overall pick in July.
The start of his professional career has not gone well. In 60 games, Davis is batting .196 with two homers and a 34.7% strikeout rate. His chase rate is 24%, with a whiff rate of 21%. There has been a history of swing-and-miss since his collegiate days, but for the first time, the numbers mean something. The power has fallen flat as well. His average EV is 84.9 mph with a max of 104 mph and a barrel rate of 2.2%. An 80% contact rate is serviceable, and he’s still drawing walks (14%), which are consistent with his historical data. One thing that stands out for Davis is an ugly infield fly ball rate north of 30%. Regardless of level, a rate that high is concerning. It can mean two uniquely different things: simply struggling to adjust or an injury. Either way, the most frustrating part of the process is that he’s playing at Low-A, a level typically used as a brief stepping stone for collegiate bats on their way up. Davis has yet to progress outside of that level, a clear sign that his lack of development is concerning.
It’s far too soon to predict that Davis is a bust, but that does not mean we cannot flex him down in the rankings. The question remains: Can he fix it? If so, how soon? With the Cardinals’ organization in flux right now from top-to-bottom, Davis will get ample time to get “right“. I’d encourage additional patience with Davis, the type of player who can get hot and ascend very quickly. I still love his skill set and talent, but there are legitimate concerns. Based on his upside alone, he’s worthy of remaining inside my Top 200.
Elijah Green, WSH
The first round of the 2022 MLB Draft is one of the more polarizing in recent history. If you recall, the Jackson Holliday/Elijah Green/Druw Jones FYPD debate was intense, and many opted for the two talented prep outfielders ahead of Holliday. As we know, Jackson Holliday has faired very well, as has fellow Top-10 pick Cade Horton. Things haven’t gone so well for Jones, Green, Kumar Rocker, and Jacob Berry. While Jones has dealt with numerous injuries, Elijah Green has just been bad. Since Opening Day 2023, Green has slashed .206/.327/.329, a line that looks better only because of his 14.1% walk rate, a bright spot in his young career. If his walk rate is the good, his 16% infield flyball rate is the bad, and his 42.5% strikeout rate is the U-G-L-Y. The 42.5% K-rate is pretty misleading. If you consider that Green has a 52.8% contact rate and 22% SwStr%, his strikeout could be worse.
Green’s two carrying tools ahead of the Draft were his 70-grade speed and 60-grade raw power. His speed has delivered, posting 44 steals over two seasons. For Green, his speed will always play. But my favorite adage is “You can’t steal first base“, and that’s going to limit his impact if his plate struggles continue. On the other hand, his power has produced just nine homers. I’ll give him a pass on the home run output. Green has a more important focus, specifically fixing his contact skills before worrying about the power. In his 125-game Minor League career, Green is slugging just .348 with 37 extra-base hits and has just 160 total bases. Not good, Bob.
The career path for Green has not progressed as anticipated, and unfortunately, he’s fallen outside my top 400 prospects. If you are in a league that rosters 350-500 prospects, I could justify stashing Green. In shallow leagues (100-250 prospects rostered), Green is a drop as other players have a better outlook. I’m rooting for Green to figure it out, and I hope he does soon.
Honorable Mention
Yanquiel Fernández, COL: Not everything is sunshine and rainbows in the Rockies’ organizational hierarchy. The helium that bumped 21-year-old Yanquiel Fernández last Summer is hemorrhaging from the balloon. As we expected, his promotion from hitter-friendly Spokane to cavernous Hartford has sapped his power output. In 2022 and 2023, Fernandez finished with 20+ homers and 90+ RBIs playing on the West Coast. Since his move to Double-A, Fernandez is no longer a shining star. Without a favorable environment, the warts in his profile are more apparent. Fernandez’s contact rate is around 70%, while his strikeout rate remains high at nearly 30%. It’s easy to overlook a high strikeout rate when you’re producing like Fernandez was able to in the Northwest League. Be careful not to get caught up with his increased production if he jumps to the PCL, especially with no improvement in the underlying skills.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Cliff Welch/ Icon Sportswire
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