The weather is heating up around the country and so are some of the top outfield bats in the minor leagues. Several high-end talents have made their MLB debuts this season, including Nationals’ outfielder James Wood and All-Star Jackson Merrill of the Padres. Speaking of the All-Star break, teams are returning to action this weekend following the midsummer classic. With the July 30th trade deadline looming, I’d anticipate plenty of prospect movement before next month’s report.
RECAP OF v4.0
Risers
Aidan Smith, TBR: Smith was shipped to the Rays organization in the Randy Arozarena trade last month. Since his arrival, he’s batting just .154 in four games. Ultimately, this is probably a neutral move for Smith, as the Rays player development is on par with the Mariners among the league’s best. I love Smith long-term and anticipate a mid-2026 arrival for the 20-year-old.
Jhostynxon Garcia, BOS: Garcia continues to rake regardless of where he plays, including Double-A Portland, his new home after his recent promotion. Since August 1st, Garcia has a .383/.455/.596 slash line with seven extra-base hits in 47 at-bats. On the season, Garcia has a .294 average with 21 homers, 15 steals, and a .950 OPS.
Henry Bolte, OAK: Bolte was also promoted to Double-A recently, moving from Lansing to Midland. Since the move, Bolte is batting .215 with four homers and 10 steals. With the surface stats comes the 43% strikeout rate. There are skills to like in Bolte’s profile, but his floor remains lower unless the swing-and-miss improves.
Fallers
Samuel Zavala, CHW: The 20-year-old outfielder continues to struggle at High-A. Zavala debuted at the level last season, playing in 14 games with uninspiring results. His repeat season hasn’t gone much better. Zavala is hitting below .200 with seven homers and 13 steals. His strikeout rate is around 27%, but his walks have continued to impress. Zavala is approaching 100 walks for the second consecutive season, which has generated a 22.8% walk rate and .342 OBP despite his poor average.
Jakob Marsee, MIA: Stolen base impact is a significant factor in Marsee’s value as a fantasy asset, but even a 70-steal pace doesn’t hide the batting average woes. After a monster 2023 that culminated with an MVP award in the Arizona Fall League, regression has come. His average has dipped below .200, while the power output has dropped significantly after a ballpark change.
Carlos Jorge, CIN: Jorge was starting to turn it around late in July, but a sprained thumb has him on the IL, and he will miss the rest of 2024. Most of my concerns with Jorge revolve around his contact skills and strikeout rate, which is 30% for his career. But he hit 12 homers with 43 stolen bases this season and doesn’t turn 21 until September.
RISERS
Max Clark, DET
There were many people concerned with the early results of Max Clark in his brief pro debut last Summer, and admittedly, I was among them. As an 18-year-old, Clark struggled initially at Rookie ball/Low-A, including a 28% strikeout rate. The results shouldn’t have been alarming. It was more that the Tigers opted for Clark at #3 overall instead of Wyatt Langford, who was setting the minor leagues on fire following the draft. One year later, Langford is still a budding superstar, but Clark has made a name for himself and is rocketing up the prospect charts.
Clark, who turns 20 in December, was promoted to High-A West Michigan in late July with an overall slash line of .289/.381/.433 on the season. In 92 total games, he has eight homers with 27 steals, a manageable 22% strikeout rate, and an excellent 14.7% walk rate. Even more exciting for Clark is that he’s making contact at a near-80% rate and has a 25% line drive rate. His barrel rate is low (2.8%), and exit velocities (86.5 avg, 106.7 max) are middle-of-the-road, but optimism is that his power will continue to increase with age.
As if the talent was enough for Clark, he has an 80-grade personality and plays the game hard at all costs. His in-game interview during the 2024 Futures Game showed just how much character Clark has, and his star power extends beyond the white lines. With the influx of talent graduating from the Top 10 prospects, Clark has the talent and upside to claim a Top 5 spot as early as this fall.
Max Clark launches his first High-A home run to pull the Whitecaps back to within one run. @jgoldstrass on the call. pic.twitter.com/gijFvAG0G7
— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) August 16, 2024
Colby Thomas, OAK
Thomas is a sneaky play in dynasty leagues, especially in an A’s organization that lacks MLB-ready talent. As a third-round pick in 2022, Thomas has some pedigree in his profile, despite playing his collegiate ball at Mercer. If not for a shoulder injury during his final season at Mercer, Thomas may have pushed into the first two rounds. With the lost time and subsequent fall in draft stock, the A’s were able to grab Thomas and he’s provided nice value since his selection.
In two professional seasons, Thomas has shown a bit of everything, including plus raw power and more speed than expected. In 2023, Thomas hit .286 with 18 homers and 25 steals during two stops in A-Ball. As a follow-up, he’s continued to rake this season, splitting time between Double and Triple-A. In 105 games, Thomas has 24 homers and 14 steals while posting a .278/.343/.558 slash line.
Thomas has a similar profile as Bolte. Thomas is also an aggressive hitter, walking only 7% of the time with an astronomical 47% chase rate. But, his overall contact skills are better than Bolte, and his strikeout rate (24.6%) is considerably lower. I think Thomas and Bolte have similar upsides, but Thomas feels safer in the long run due to his ability to consistently make contact. There is just enough swing-and-miss in Thomas’ game to warrant some concern about how his game translates to the big leagues, but there is a good chance that we will see Colby Thomas in Oakland early in September.
Honorable Mention:
Chase DeLauter, CLE
Chase DeLauter has returned, and he is beautiful. The only knock on DeLauter has been his health, specifically his foot, which is well-documented by myself and others around the industry. DeLauter is a Top 10, possibly higher, fantasy asset when he is on the field. Since returning from his latest IL stint, DeLauter is batting .316 with five homers and three doubles in just 16 games. He’s also drawn five walks to seven strikeouts. The Guardians promoted DeLauter to Triple-A earlier this week, and IF he can stay healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him on the Opening Day roster in 2025.
FALLERS
Rayner Arias, SFG
Arias was a trendy name during the middle of 2023 as the 17-year-old dominated the DSL to a .414/.539/.793 slash line with four homers in just 16 games played. The big allure with Arias was a combination of big exit velocities and a 6-foot-2, 185 lb. frame with room to grow. In fairness to Arias, his numbers looked great, but MLB Pipeline had scouts dreaming of a younger version of Eloy Jiménez (their words, not mine). Once the surface stats were gone, a 66% contact rate with an overall 50% swing rate indicated that Arias had plenty of room for improvement, as expected.
With 25 games in the books this season, Arias has struggled to repeat his dominance playing domestically in the Complex League, albeit in a sample, but larger than the sample we used last season. He has no home runs, and his strikeout rate is approaching 31%. In addition, Arias has an infield fly rate of 28%, which is not good Bob. I still think Arias is going to be fine in the long run, but let’s pump the brakes on having him rest inside the Top 50 overall prospects (that’s a comment directed at me).
Dillon Head, MIA
Dillon Head was one of the more intriguing prep bats coming out of the 2023 Draft Class. As a high-schooler, Head was a rare combination of a better-than-average hit tool and elite, 80-grade speed. The Padres grabbed him with the 25th overall pick, getting him to bypass his commitment to ACC-powerhouse Clemson. The initial foray into pro ball was fine, offering mixed results for Head, including 15 walks to 19 strikeouts and four stolen bases across 27 games. With a small sample to review, 2024 looked like it would provide a better expectation of what he could bring to the Padres in the future.
2024 did not go as planned for Dillon Head. He got off to a decent start in April, batting .241 with one homer and three steals, but that came with a 28.7% strikeout rate. On May 3rd, he became the first player in the class of 2023 to be traded, as the Padres shipped Head and three others to the Marlins to acquire infielder Luis Arraez. Now in his second organization in less than four months, Head was battling the learning curve and a new home when injury struck. In mid-June, Head underwent season-ending hip surgery, which will keep him sidelined until Spring Training of 2025. A lost year of development is detrimental to any player, but for a 19-year-old who has not adapted to the professional level, Head will certainly fall further behind.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Cliff Welch