First basemen have traditionally been known as the power sources for major league teams. That’s no different in fantasy. While there are plenty of other ways to add pop to a fantasy lineup, no position has the depth in terms of power potential that first base does. While it’s rare to find a player that can affect fantasy lineups in every way (see: Freddie Freeman), there’s a plethora of potential sluggers ready to make an impact at the big-league level. Here’s a look at the floor and ceiling of some of the names poised to enter the spotlight in the next few years.
Dynasty Ceiling: 2015 J.D. Martinez
.282 AVG | .344 OBP | .535 SLG | 38 HR | 3 SB | 27.1% K% | 8.1% BB%
Before we get started, no ceiling/floor comparison in this article is going to be “perfect”. Are Martinez and Eldridge comparable in terms of physical stature? No. Are they the same “archetype”? No. That said, Eldridge’s skill set is a good match for the production Martinez put up over a decade ago. The power ceiling is around the same. Martinez posted two 40+ home run seasons and three 30+ campaigns. Eldridge’s frame and batted ball numbers (108.4 EV90, 16.8% barrel rate in AAA) indicate he could reach those heights, too. Eldridge was on pace for 36 (assuming he played in 150 games) last season. With consistent playing time in the heart of the Giants’ order, he could even threaten 40+ with the insane power tool he possesses.
Dynasty Floor: 2024 Michael Toglia
.218 AVG | .311 OBP | .456 SLG | 25 HR | 10 SB | 32.1% K% | 11.8% BB%
The concern with Eldridge, like it is for many power-first players, is the swing-and-miss already present in his game. The lefty had a strikeout rate above 30% in AAA, and a mark nearing 36% in his brief MLB audition. His swinging-strike rate (15.39%) was in the bottom 22% of AAA hitters last year, and his chase rate wasn’t above average either (28.5%). When he makes contact, he’s going to create damage. He had strong hard-hit rates in both AAA stints and his MLB appearances. The frame and swing will be a constant threat for home runs. The question will be whether he can make enough contact to maintain decent batting averages and on-base percentages.
Realistic Projection
A batting average on par with Toglia’s may have been harsh. He’s a career .279 hitter in the minors and has never posted a mark below .249 at any level. Still, though, the strikeouts are something to be wary of. Eldridge will likely be closer to the 30-35 range in home runs over the course of a full season, although he has the potential to get to 40+ if he makes enough contact. I’m comfortable saying that Eldridge will hit in the .240-.255 range once he’s settled in the big leagues. With his 30-35 home run projection, that would put him in the top-five first basemen in the league in terms of total production. Considering the outlier frame and the track record of being able to hit for power throughout his career, I’m willing to bet on Eldridge being a top-ten player at the position once he gets full-time reps.
Dynasty Ceiling: 2019 Pete Alonso
.262 AVG | .359 OBP | .585 SLG | 52 HR | 1 SB | 26.2% K% | 10.3% BB%
We’re going to have some fun in this article, can’t you tell? Condon is one of nine players currently in the minor leagues that Fangraphs has attributed a 60-grade future game power and 70-grade raw power to. Historically, that hasn’t guaranteed MLB success, although James Wood and Samuel Basallo have reached that mark in recent years. Condon set the NCAA home run record in the BBCOR era with 37 in his final season at Georgia, and was on pace for 20+ in his first full professional season had he played 150 games. Condon’s power tool is special, and his batted ball profile indicates he’ll showcase it often (40% FB, 50% Pull in AA). Over the course of a full season, with the atmosphere of Coors Field behind him in 50% of his games, 40+ homers or higher is not out of the question.
Dynasty Floor: 2021 Bobby Dalbec
.236 AVG | .291 OBP | .477 SLG | 22 HR | 2 SB | 34.4% K% | 6.2% BB%
For as high as Condon’s ceiling is, the floor is just as low because of the swing-and-miss risk with the 22-year-old. Condon’s strikeout rate was comically low in college (13.5% in the final season), but that number has already jumped to 26%, with a 28% mark in 55 games in AA. While his 12.3% swinging-strike rate and 72% contact rate aren’t bad considering his power tool, there’s a lot of room for regression, especially as he’s faced with better competition. Condon’s walk rate dipped by 5% when he reached AA, and his OPS dropped 50 points. If this trend continues, his numbers will look a lot less glamorous when he reaches the majors. His power tool will keep him dynasty relevant, but if he can’t adjust to the elite arms he’ll face in the majors, he may be resigned to a wRC+ in the 100-110 range.
Realistic Projection
Condon signing with Colorado, on top of some injury issues, has dimmed the shine on one of the best pure power threats to be drafted in recent memory. Despite the Rockies’ struggles with player development and Condon’s strikeout risk, I’m still high on him. His power tool is a match made in heaven for Coors Field, and he’s shown the ability to get to that power against advanced competition in AA. Reaching the heights of Alonso’s historic rookie campaign (in which he was 7th in MVP voting) is admittedly a pipe dream. That said, 35-40 home runs with a .240 AVG and 125+ wRC+ doesn’t feel outlandish. Even if he doesn’t have the buzz around him that he did on Draft day, Condon should still be considered one of the best power hitters on the cusp of the major leagues.
Dynasty Ceiling: 2021 Joey Votto
.266 AVG | .375 OBP | .563 SLG | 36 HR | 4 SB | 23.8% K% | 14.4% BB%
Clifford’s hit tool is better than he gets credit for. While he only managed a .219 average against AAA competition, he did so with an 84.5% zone-contact rate and 23% chase rate. Those are signs of a player with a good understanding of the strike zone and the ability to put the bat on the ball. The batted-ball profile looks solid too (64.2% line-drive plus fly-ball rate, 42% pull rate in AAA), and his average exit velocity (93.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (53.1%) were among the best at the level. The mix of power potential in his smooth lefty swing and good instincts at the plate gives Clifford an incredibly high ceiling.
Dynasty Floor: 2024 Rhys Hoskins
.214 AVG | .303 OBP | .419 SLG | 26 HR | 3 SB | 28.8% K% | 10.3% BB%
This is the projection for Clifford’s production if the issues in his game aren’t addressed. While he does well at minimizing his chases and makes meaningful contact, he can be passive in the zone. Clifford’s swing rate (42.1%) and zone-swing rate (63.1%) are both in the bottom 33rd percentile. Against big league pitching, especially those with plus control, that passiveness can be exposed on the edges of the zone. It’s a possibility that Clifford makes the adjustments necessary and neutralizes that weakness, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s say he doesn’t. At least in the early stages of his career, it’s not out of the question for a career .240 hitter in the minors to struggle to get going in the majors.
Realistic Projection
Average-wise, I expect Clifford to remain in the realm he’s been in throughout his minor league career. Anywhere from .230-.250 seems likely, as the passiveness undermines his plus hit tool and solid ability to create meaningful contact. That contact will be key to his overall production, though. Clifford has the skills and the frame to consistently be a threat for 30+ home runs. Before writing this, I had Clifford a solid tier below Eldridge and Condon in terms of first basemen rankings. After this exercise, he’s firmly in that tier and has the potential to have a comparable career. A 3+ WAR output with a 125 wRC+ seems like a fair target for him as he joins a stacked Mets lineup.
