Little Jacked Hoerner

Nico Hoerner (CHC): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB.

Little jacked Hoerner
Sat in the corner
With zero home runs to his name.

Then it became June
And he changed his tune
And smacked one in yesterday’s game.

I’m not sure how familiar you all are with this 18th century English nursery rhyme, but I swear that’s word-for-word how it goes. And yesterday Nico Hoerner proved it to be quite prophetic by going 3-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB with his first home run of the season.

Chances are, if you drafted Hoerner, it wasn’t for the power. But even so, rostering a full-time player with a goose egg in the home run category can be a bit rough, so it was nice for him to add one to his ledger.

While you shouldn’t expect to see too many more of these rest-of-season—he’s rocking a customarily low 1.9% barrel rate on the year—he’ll likely make up for it in the batting average category thanks to his 7.2% strikeout rate, which currently ranks as the third-lowest among qualified hitters behind only Jacob Wilson and Luis Arraez. And if the stolen base in yesterday’s game is a sign of things to come, there’s still a chance of him eclipsing the 40-stolen-base mark again. Though without the power of ancient English prophecy on his side here, there’s of course no guarantee.

Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday

Masyn Winn (STL): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

Winn scored one of these runs tagging up from second base on a deep flyball where centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong forgot how many outs there were. And he scored the other when he hit a grand-bomb-y salami (Note: I just made that term up, feel free to use it and help make it a thing. I’d like ‘grand-bomb-y salami’ to be associated with my legacy). Winn hasn’t quite flashed the power or speed most expected from him to begin the year, when he was pegged as a potential 20/20 contributor, and it seems unlikely he’ll get there at this rate.

Joey Ortiz (MIL): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

After posting a .727 OPS and flashing some speed in his first extended taste of the majors last year, it seemed like Ortiz had a chance of being a solid fantasy contributor entering the year. Unfortunately, he hit the ground… crawling to begin the season, to the point where it looked like he had a real chance of losing his grip on the shortstop job. However, he’s started to turn things around in a big way recently, slashing .292/.352/.427 over his last 30 games with 3 homers and 4 stolen bases. Ortiz certainly has the tools to be a decent fantasy contributor across the board, and is in the midst of a hot streak, so he may be worth your attention in 14+ team leagues.

George Springer (TOR): 3-5, HR, 3 R, 4 RBI.

News of George Springer’s demise seems to have been greatly exaggerated. Springer is currently sporting a career-best barrel rate (16.6%), walk rate (12.9%) and Hard Hit rate (46.9%). What’s interesting to note, however, is that his recent hot streak has coincided with a notable dip in his xwOBA. Still, with the other peripherals backing up everything he’s done so far, there’s lots of reason for optimism for a strong second half as long as he can stay healthy.

Michael Conforto (LAD): 2-5, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI.

Conforto has offered the Dodgers very little confort that he’s going to turn things around this season, even after this performance. He’s slashed .168/.292/.295 over his last 30 games and has somehow been worse against righties (.547 OPS) than lefties (.639). If there’s a silver lining, it’s that a lot of his numbers (K%, BB%, HardHit%, Whiff%, Z-Contact %) are pretty much in line with his career averages. Maybe this performance propels him to a stronger second half, but I wouldn’t be holding my breath.

Seiya Suzuki (CHC): 3-5, HR, R, 3 RBI.

This was Suzuki’s 21st home run—tying his career-high—and he’s now smacked 4 homers over his last 7 games. Suzuki has been slightly more aggressive this season, and while that’s resulted in a dampened walk rate, it’s worked to his advantage in the power department. He currently ranks in the top 10% of all qualified players in Max EV, xSLG, and xwOBAcon.

Lane Thomas (CLE): 2-4, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB.

I was once told I look like Lane Thomas. This year, it kind of seems like I might be able to play baseball as well as him, too. Lane, give me a call if you ever wanna pull a The Prince and the Pauper and switch lives for a few days. This was a nice performance, and the Guardians have been giving him a long leash in terms of playing time. But he’s yet to reclaim the form that made him such an appealing fantasy contributor when he was on the Nationals, and he’s probably worth avoiding pretty much everywhere.

Caleb Durbin (MIL): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

Like teammate Joey Ortiz, Durbin possesses good contact ability, a tiny bit of pop, decent speed, and has really hit his stride over the last month, slashing .286/.358/.438 during that span. We haven’t quite seen the 50-60 stolen base upside he flashed in the minors yet, but if he continues to reach base at this clip there’s a chance it shines through in the coming weeks.

Riley Greene (DET): 4-5, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI.

This performance pushed Greene’s triple-slash over the last 30 games to .319/.366/.549, and he’s hitting a casual .536 with three homers over the last week. The strikeouts remain an issue, but the power is legit, and he can go on a hot streak like no other. Enjoy.

Nolan Gorman (STL): 3-4, HR, R, RBI.

Not every Gorman massacre has to be heartbreaking. Just as it looked like Gorman was poised for a big June, he started to cool off a bit, so this home run—his second in as many days—was very welcome. Gorman’s carrying tool—his big-time power—has taken a dip this season, as his 10.4% barrel rate is a far cry from the elite 16% rates he was rocking the past two years. While he’s managed to drop his strikeout rate below 30% for the first time in his career as a result, it doesn’t seem like a tradeoff worth making, as his xBA still stands at a paltry .215. Barring a big-time rebellion against the way he’s been doing things, he’s likely better off lost to the dark side forever.

Christian Moore (LAA): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

The 2024 first-rounder has had a bit of trouble acclimating to the majors in the early going, but he certainly looked the part yesterday, smacking two home runs, including a walk-off shot to win the game for the Angels. Moore has flashed some tantalizing power in his extremely brief minor league career, and certainly has the tools to be a fantasy asset. However, as is the case with most hitters from the 2024 draft class, you may need to endure some growing pains as they adjust to the majors this year.