Hit the Jac Pot

Jac Caglianone (KCR): 2-5, HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, BB.

The Kansas City Royals hit the Jac Pot against the Toronto Blue Jays last night with a huge 20-1 blowout to prevent the Jays from clinching a playoff spot (boooo). Caglianone barreled a three-run shot in the seventh inning for his seventh big league home run and 27th of the season across all levels.

Since returning from a hamstring strain on September 3rd, Caglianone appears to have hit his stride.

The 22-year-old outfielder has picked up two home runs, a .217/.333/.370/.703 slashline, and a 98 wRC+ over 15 games. This is hardly the ceiling for the 6th overall pick in the 2024 draft, but it does represent a big step forward since his debut earlier this summer. He’s also jumped up to a 92.2 mph average exit velocity and 51.5% hard hit rate after coming off the IL, which is much more in line with his projected skillset.

The small sample size is undeniable, but the reality is we have to work with the data we have and not the data we want, unfortunately. A larger sample is just around the corner in 2026.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Friday:

Spencer Steer (CIN): 2-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.

I featured Spencer Steer once already earlier this year, or I may have featured him here today. Yesterday’s pair of dingers put Steer up to 20 home runs for the third consecutive season, albeit with a drop in stolen bases this season. I’m rarely shy to admit when I’m wrong, and it appears my earlier recommendation to buy Steer was indeed unwarranted. Since the last time I wrote about Steer on June 27th, he’s put up 11 homers, one steal, a .233/.326/.437 triple slash, and 108 wRC+. Certainly production that’s worth rostering in almost any format, but likely not worth the cost of acquiring him.

If we dig a bit deeper, 36 of Steer’s 65 career home runs have left the yard in Great American Ball Park. While his career wRC+ is comparable (103 at home vs 104 on the road), his home/road splits have drifted apart this season. In GABP, Steer has put up 12 homers, a .263/.332/.465 triple slash, and a 111 wRC+. Meanwhile, on the road, he’s only managed eight homers, a .222/.293/.368 triple slash, and an 85 wRC+. This is definitely going to be a trend worth watching going into 2026, as his ability to perform on the road will determine whether Steer is a perennial five-/six-category stud worth drafting in the middle rounds or a Coors Field-esque platoon bat who can deliver home runs with middling ratios, as long as he’s playing at home.

 

Juan Soto (NYM): 2-3, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 BB, SB.

Just Juan Soto doing Juan Soto things. Soto’s “Combo Meal” is just the latest entry in his recent hot streak. Since August 1st, he’s recorded 17 homers, 19 steals, a .304/.431/.637 triple slash, and a 192 wRC+. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to wrench the NL MVP away from Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber, but that has more to do with the parity of the National League than Soto’s performance this season.

 

Nick Kurtz (ATH): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.

There’s absolutely no parity when it comes to the AL Rookie of the Year race, however. Nick Kurtz has already locked down the AL ROY award, but added his 33rd home run of the season yesterday for good measure. Kurtz leads all rookies in home runs, runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and wRC+, while also coming in Top 10 in batting average and OBP. In fact, his 171 wRC+ is third in baseball behind only Judge and Ohtani, and his 47-home run pace would put him Top 5.

 

Drake Baldwin (ATL): 2-4, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB.

Atlanta’s second-half surge has been too little, too late to push for a spot in the postseason. Nobody told Drake Baldwin, however, as he notched his 17th home run of 2025 in a 10-1 blowout of the Detroit Tigers. Baldwin has emerged as a Top 10 catcher this year and the frontrunner for the NL ROY award. Baldwin’s power is his carrying tool with a 91.7 mph average exit velocity, 10.6% barrel rate, and 50.0% hard hit rate. However, his 106 Power+ has been outpaced by a 110 Contact+ and 121 zDV+, which bodes well for his longevity as an elite catcher going forward.

In leagues with a two-week or Week 25 championship, it’s worth checking your waiver wires for Baldwin (only 28% rostered on Yahoo and 69% on Fantrax).

 

Yandy Díaz (TBR): 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.

Yandy Díaz hit his 25th home run last night as his resurgent 2025 campaign continues. While he barreled a dinger in the third inning, it was actually a 113.6 mph double in the first that set a new season-high maximum exit velocity. Díaz has not only bounced back from a disappointing 2024 season but has set new career highs in home runs and RBI.

He’s shown no signs of slowing down either, as he’s been a Top 10 hitter since the All-Star break with 11 home runs, a .328/.410/.551/.960 slashline, and 166 wRC+.

 

Carson Williams (TBR): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.

Carson Williams‘ major league debut has been a mixed bag. The good news is Williams hit his fifth home run in 79 plate appearances last night, showcasing the power that allowed him to hit 23 homers in Triple-A earlier this year. The bad news is that it was barely classified as a barrel at 98.5 mph. His below-anticipated 85.0 mph average exit velocity, 36.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in the majors have led to a .189 batting average, with only one stolen base, and a 77 wRC+.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been letting Williams start every day, which will give him plenty of time to get acclimated to major league pitching, as is often necessary for a young shortstop of his profile. Patience is key here, as a breakout may not be imminent, but it will be worth the wait when it happens. Just don’t expect that to be in 2025.

 

Denzer Guzman (LAA): 1-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.

The Los Angeles Angels called up Denzer Guzman this week, with Zach Neto going to the IL. Guzman has made a quick impact as he mashed his second home run last night with a 104.9 mph, 415-foot bomb in the second inning. Early returns have the 21-year-old shortstop notching 12 strikeouts in his first six games, but a 22.0% chase rate, 125 oDV+, and 136 Strikezone Judgement leave room for that number to drop closer to his minor league career 25.3% strikeout rate. It remains to be seen if Guzman will be able to hit well enough to earn a starting role in the Angels’ lineup, but he did make 23 starts at third base in Triple-A this season.

Maybe I’m just being optimistic here about the possibility of Mike Trout playing in the 2026 postseason, but Guzman’s profile is certainly intriguing in this latest Angels rebuild.

 

Nate Eaton (BOS): 2-4, 2 R, RBI, BB, SB.

For those interested in a look behind the scenes, I actually cut Nate Eaton from last week’s Batter’s Box. It looks like his playing time is secure, however, as the Boston Red Sox have opted not to call up Kristian Campbell. Since Roman Anthony hit the IL on September 2nd, Eaton has started nearly every day in right field as he siphons playing time from Rob Refsnyder. Despite a career-high 16 home runs in Triple-A last season, Eaton likely won’t hit for power much in Fenway Park. Speed and contact are his calling cards, as Eaton’s seven steals in 81 plate appearances aren’t completely unreasonable with his 29.7 ft/s Sprint Speed (97th percentile). Especially with a 107 Contact+ that has resulted in a .315/.370/.411/.781 slashline and will allow him to maximize his stolen base opportunities.

Take advantage now if you have the need for speed, as there’s no telling how the Red Sox’s outfield logjam will be resolved in the offseason, and for better or for worse, Eaton may wind up in a different situation in 2026.

 

Carter Jensen (KCR): 3-7, 3 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Carter Jensen continued his reign of terror since being called up at the start of the month with a trio of extra-base hits. In the first inning, Jensen recorded 105.6 and 106.7 mph doubles as the Royals turned the lineup to force Max Scherzer from the game early. The biggest of his three XBH came in the bottom of the third with a blistering 108.3 mph two-run double that put the Royals up 9-1.

Jensen’s gaudy stats have been buoyed by a small sample size and .391 BABIP. However, when a player debuts with a 100.1 average exit velocity, 16.0% barrel rate, 72.0% hard hit rate, 15.8% walk rate, and an 18.4% strikeout rate, it can’t be ignored. When those numbers are coming from a 21-year-old catcher, I’m buying first and asking questions later.