A Tork in the Road
Spencer Torkelson (DET): 1-1, HR, 2 R, RBI, 4 BB.
Spencer Torkelson’s 2024 was just about as awful as you could draw up. One year after swatting 31 home runs, he hit just ten in 381 plate appearances while hitting .219 with a .295 wOBA. His strikeout rate climbed from 25% to 27.6%. His barrel rate crashed from 14.2% to 6.8%. Things got so bad, he found himself in Triple-A Toledo for about six weeks.
Last night, though, we saw a glimpse of the hitter the Tigers thought they were getting when they drafted him first overall out of Arizona State in 2020. In the bottom of the seventh, he yanked a 92 mph heater from LHP Alex Vesia over the wall in left (108.5 EV, 422 feet), pulling the Tigers to within one. Torkelson has always shown a discerning eye; last year’s 25.5% O-swing rate (82nd percentile) was probably the only good thing in his profile. He showed it last night with four walks. In case you’re wondering, Torkelson’s opening day line was historic.
Torkelson’s struggles threw a wrench in his career trajectory. He began this past offseason as a 25-year-old former first-round pick with a tenuous role. But he had an excellent spring and forced A.J. Hinch’s hand. Injuries have also opened the door wide open. He’s shown ability before and has a great opportunity for redemption; sometimes that’s all it takes.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Thursday:
Kyle Manzardo (CLE): 3-4, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, BB.
Last year, Manzardo didn’t show the pop you look for in a first-base prospect; he went yard just five times while hitting .234 with a .303 wOBA and 98 wRC+. And his batted ball data wasn’t great. But it was just 156 plate appearances and he had a very good spring, meaning his post-hype appeal remains alive and well. Yesterday’s dinger came on a 97 mph sinker from LHP Angel Zerpa (106.4 EV, 424 feet), which might be a good sign considering the Guardians seemed hesitant to deploy him against same-handed pitching.
Wilyer Abreu (BOS): 3-3, 2 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, BB.
Abreu’s first home run came against Nathan Eovaldi in the fifth, a solo shot that tied the game 2-2. However, his second home run came in an even bigger spot, tagging Rangers RHP Luke Jackson with a go-ahead, three-run shot in the ninth (110.7 EV, 393 feet). Abreu showed good pop last year, posting a .336 wOBA and 114 wRC+ over 447 plate appearances with 15 home runs. The 25-year-old lefty also swiped eight bags. He struggled against LHP, though, hitting .180 with a .241 wOBA, and a 48 wRC+ across 67 plate appearances, putting him on the strong side of a platoon. Regardless, he’s a terrific defender, and that’s always a plus for gaining playing time.
Austin Wells (NYY): 1-3, HR, R, RBI, BB.
Wells received some buzz this spring as a candidate for the Yankees’ leadoff hitter. He didn’t disappoint, hitting the first home run of Opening Day off Freddy Peralta, who was otherwise brilliant. However, this home run was the definition of a Yankee Stadium special with Statcast saying it would’ve stayed in the yard in baseball’s 29 other venues. Wells showed off a pretty solid 11.4% walk rate, giving him a good shot to stick high in the order, and his above-average fly-ball rate gives him a reasonable path to 20 home runs. It’ll be interesting to see if he can improve his splits against LHP.
Tyler O’Neill (BAL): 3-3, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, 2 BB.
Safe to say the British Columbia native enjoyed the homecoming. Then again, the entire Orioles lineup enjoyed their Opening Day in Toronto. O’Neill went oppo on a sinker from José Berríos in the third; the three-run shot extended his MLB record sixth consecutive opening day with a homer. The yoked outfielder belted 31 home runs last season with Boston in 473 plate appearances and had the barrels to back it (16.9% / 98th percentile). However, his xBA of .195 wasn’t exactly ideal. Still, it’s fun to imagine what he might be able to do if he could finally play 140 games, especially in this lineup.
Lars Nootbaar (STL): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Nootbaar bashed a changeup from Pablo López to deep right for a two-run shot. He was a popular breakout candidate last season but lost about a month to an oblique strain before finishing with an underwhelming .244 average with 12 home runs across 405 plate appearances. Still, his incredible batter’s eye (18.8% O-swing rate, 99th percentile) and hard-contact rate (91st percentile according to Statcast) make me want to believe there’s a worthwhile ceiling he hasn’t reached yet. He also showed strong numbers against LHP last year (.348 wOBA, 125 wRC+ over 109 PA).
Tyler Soderstrom (OAK): 2-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Soderstrom broke a scoreless tie in the fifth, swatting a first-pitch slider from Logan Gilbert over the wall just to the right of dead center (431 feet, 108.7 EV). The 23-year-old lefty played tiebreaker again in the eighth, yanking a cutter from RHP Trent Thornton over the right field fence (361 feet, 111.4 EV). Like most rookies, he didn’t hit the ground running, hitting .233 with nine home runs last season while posting a .322 wOBA and 114 wRC+ across 213 plate appearances. His ground-ball rate was high last year (80th percentile), but last night we saw the immense power that drove his prospect profile.
Ian Happ (CHC): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.
Happ’s first of the year came in the fourth on a 92 mph heater from Zac Gallen, landing just over the right field fence (365 feet, 109.3 EV). Happ did yeoman’s work in 2024, tying a career-high 25 home runs while swiping 13 bases. He’s not going to help your batting average, but his 12.2% walk rate worked well in OBP leagues. He started most of his games in the leadoff spot last season (66 games; 305 PA) and was there again last night against the righty Gallen. We’ll see him lower in the order against LHP. (.314 wOBA / 104 wRC+ vs. LHP last year).
Vinnie Pasquantino (KCR): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI.
The Pasquatch was back in action as the DH after a hamstring strain threatened to delay his 2025 debut. He broke a scoreless tie in the third, crushing a three-run jack to right off RHP Ben Lively (389 feet, 104.1 EV). Pasquantino’s calling card is his low strikeout rate (95th percentile) making him a bankable source of RBI. However, it’ll be interesting to see if he can tap into more power after hitting a career-high 19 home runs last year.
Nolan Arenado (STL): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.
The subject of countless trade rumors this past offseason, Arenado entered the year looking like he was in serious decline after posting a .314 wOBA and 102 wRC+, his lowest output across 500 or more plate appearances since his rookie year. Yes, he’s not exciting and probably only moves the needle in batting average. But this home run was impressive as he dismantled a high and tight 98 mph heater from Griffin Jax, one of last year’s best relievers. The homerun’s swing speed came in at 75.5 mph according to Statcast, quite the outlier from Arenado’s average of 70.7 a year ago.
Jorge Polanco (SEA): 3-3, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Batting left-handed against RHP José Leclerc, Polanco unloaded on a deep drive to straightaway center, breaking a 2-2 tie in the eighth (104.1 EV, 413 feet). Unfortunately, we haven’t seen Polanco healthy in a while; last year, a hamstring injury cost him about a month as he finished with a career-low .287 wOBA and 92 wRC+. His career-high 33 home runs in 2021 seem like a fever dream at this point. Still, Polanco was productive in 2023, hitting 14 home runs in about half a season with a .340 wOBA and 117 wRC+. He’s worth keeping tabs on in deep leagues.
Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)