Lights, Camera, Jackson

Jackson Merrill (SDP): 1-3, HR, R, RBI.

He’s done it again! After hitting two dingers Thursday night, Jackson Merrill endeared himself to Mets fans with another home run, a solo shot to right in the fifth (396 feet, 101.8 EV), which was the only offense the Padres could scrap together against Sean Manaea and the Mets pen.

Merrill’s skills are impressive, especially for a 21-year-old. He’s striking out at a 14.6% clip (121 contact ability via PLV; 100 is average). His power is about league average (59th percentile xwOBACON, 104 power via PLV) at the moment. But as we’ve seen the last two nights, he brings some projectability to that department that should enthuse dynasty leaguers. He’s also shown good speed with nine steals on 11 attempts.

The one area in which to look for improvements is better swing decisions. His 74 decision value via PLV is almost two standard deviations below the average. His 4.9% BB rate is a bit low too. However, if Merrill can improve his plate approach, there’s no reason he can’t eventually work his way up a spot or two in the order. I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see a player who could be really good in the not-too-distant future. As is, Merrill’s combination of high-contact, average-ish power, solid speed, and rough-around-the-edge plate approach might not be all that different from Michael Harris II.

Let’s see how the other hitters did Friday:

Alex Verdugo (NYY): 3-5, 2B, HR, R, 4 RBI.

Verdugo’s return to Fenway couldn’t have gone better for the Yankees. The first pitch he saw was a 97.6 mph sinker from Brayan Bello and he sent it 406 feet to straightaway center. He torched Bello again in the fifth with a slicing line drive that just evaded Jarren Duran’s glove, clanging off the Monster for an RBI double. Verdugo doesn’t have much pop (85 via PLV; 100 is average) but as usual, he’s making a ton of contact which should lead to plenty of RBIs as the Yankees’ cleanup hitter in four of his last five games. He’s hitting .266 with a .751 OPS, not too far from his career marks of .279 and .764.

Anthony Rizzo had his first multi-hit game since May 31st and don’t look now, but he’s riding a modest three-game hitting streak.

Lane Thomas (WSN): 2-5, HR, R, 3 RBI.

Thomas slugged a three-run blast to left in the third off righty Shaun Anderson (379 feet, 100.5 EV). He’s hitting .231 with a .654 OPS, underwhelming relative to last year’s marks of .268 and .783 respectively. However, he entered the night hitting .281 in 17 games since returning from the IL, so the results have been falling his way. Regardless, he’s boosted his value a ton with 16 steals in only 40 games; that’s tied for sixth with Julio Rodríguez, Jarren Duran, Maikel Garcia, and Ronald Acuña Jr. 

Joc Pederson (ARI): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB.

After hitting his first grand slam since 2017 on Thursday night, Pederson went yard again tagging a 3-2 sinker from Michael Soroka 424 feet to right (106.5 EV). Taking a page out of Jesse Winker’s book, he’s now just two stolen bases away from matching his career-high back in 2016. Pederson doesn’t play against LHP but he’s crushed RHP with a career .836 OPS, not all that different from Kyle Schwarber’s .870. Alright, fine at the very least I don’t think there should be a big gap between Ryan O’Hearn’s roster % and Pederson’s. His results the last two years were muted playing in San Francisco but he has a bit more upside hitting in Arizona making him a very good bat for daily formats.

Andrew McCutchen (PIT): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI.

McCutchen’s ninth of the year was a shot to center (448 feet, 107.4 EV) off Ryan Feltner that broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth. Sure, it was Coors Field but don’t overlook McCutchen. He’s making exceptional swing decisions (128 DV via PLV) and adding power (119). The man can still hit.

Pedro Pagés (STL): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.

Pagés, a 25-year-old Venezuelan right-handed hitting rookie, broke a scoreless tie in the eighth by banging a hanging 2-2 sweeper from Hayden Wesneski just over the ivy in left (362 feet, 102.5 EV) for his first career homer. He’s started four of the last five games at catcher for the Red Birds at the expense of Iván Herrera. Pagés only played in seven games in Triple-A this year before getting called up. Last year, he hit .267 with a .805 OPS over 117 games with Double-A Springfield. However, Willson Contreras might return sooner than expected from his forearm injury, potentially pushing them to the background.

TJ Friedl (CIN): 3-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Friedl started the scoring in the third, knocking a 93 mph fastball from Freddy Peralta 385 feet to right (101 EV) for his fourth of the year. Friedl’s .299 xwOBACON last year was nothing to write home about (.364 is league average) but he should remain a good source of steals and runs at the top of the Reds order thanks to his career .342 OBP.

Jeimer Candelario also went yard again after hitting double dingers two days ago. He’s gone yard four times over his last five games.

Heliot Ramos (SFG): 2-3, HR, R, 3 RBI, 2 BB. 

Ramos banged a hanging slider from Roansy Contreras, whom the Angels acquired from the Pirates about four weeks ago, 421 feet to center (108.5 EV). The three-run shot put the Giants back into the game but the Angels hung on 8-6. Ramos hit .296 with a .953 OPS across 30 games with Triple-A Sacramento and the hitting has been as advertised with a .929 OPS since getting the call (30 games). The only downside is a 29.3% K rate that might eventually pull him down.

Mitch Garver (SEA): 1-2, HR, R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.

Garver’s eighth came on a hanging slider from Andrew Heaney (397 feet, 105.4 EV). Heaney giving up home runs, color me stunned. Anyway, Garver’s passive approach and pulled flyballs should keep his batting average in the basement but he’s shown good power (108 via PLV) making him a tolerable option at C in leagues that value walks.

Austin Riley (ATL): 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

Jesse Winker’s relentless rampage on the basepaths aside, one of the year’s biggest surprises is this man hitting .230 with a .653 OPS 54 games into the season. Riley makes all the sense in the world as a buy-low based on his track record but I’m obliged to report that it is not simply a shut-and-closed case of underperforming either; his 102 power via PLV is down relative to last year’s 120. Still, I think Riley will figure it out sooner or later. He’s too good and he’s shown a good eye while making good swing decisions. (114 DV, 124 SZ Judgement). Let’s see if last night’s big dinger against Zach Littell (421 feet, 107.3 EV) can get him going.

Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)