Wicked Horwitz of the AL East
Spencer Horwitz (TOR): 2-5, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Spencer Horwitz went 2-for-5 Thursday, hitting his fourth home run of the season off Giants starter Jordan Hicks, crushing a low 78.6 mph sweeper 405 feet into McCovey Cove. While Horwitz might not have had the most flashy game Thursday, he is a perfect case study of perceived vs. actual fantasy value that would be interesting to explore further.
After a cup of coffee in the majors in 2023, Horwitz had a poor spring and Toronto elected to let him start the 2024 season in the minors. After slashing .335/.456/.514 for Triple-A Buffalo, Toronto finally called him up and he made his 2024 season debut for the Blue Jays on June 8 batting second. Not bad for someone who spent the first two months in the minors! But looking at his Statcast page, Horwitz fits the profile of a lineup table-setter.
Horwitz hasn’t played long enough to qualify, but his 16.3% Whiff%, 14.6% K%, and 13.6% BB% would all be near the top of the league. He takes walks, he doesn’t strike out, and he gets on base. Horwitz has become an everyday play for the Blue Jays, usually batting first or second, and is hitting .322/.435/.500 since his call-up, along with collecting four homers, 13 runs, and 10 RBI.
We’re over a month into his consistent play, yet Horwitz is only 21% owned in Yahoo! leagues. The man bats first or second every night, he gets on base nearly 50% of the time, and he qualifies at 1B and 2B. What gives?
Part of it might be Toronto’s underperforming offense this year. But most of it comes from Horwitz’s lack of power. Far too often fantasy managers equate a player’s power profile with fantasy value. Unless you play in the shallowest of leagues, that’s a grave fantasy mistake. Horwitz could have singlehandedly raised your team’s BA and OBP over the last month more than most waiver wire CI or MI, and probably more than most of the mid-tier players on your team.
You can always find a power bat to stream any given week, but Horwitz’s ratio-boosting skills are critical for success in both Roto leagues and weekly leagues. 21% owned is criminal. Pick this man up!
Let's see how the other hitters did Thursday.
Cal Raleigh (SEA): 3-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI.
Cal Raleigh felt one two-homer game this week was not enough, so he blasted two more against the Angels on Thursday. Oh, and he homered from both sides of the plate in both games! The man’s on fire now, hitting righties and lefties out of the park. Raleigh’s season-long numbers are poor, but his 53.9% HardHit% is in the 96th percentile, and 12.9% better than 2023.
Tyler Stephenson (CIN): 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI.
Another catcher was hit double dongs earlier in the day over in Cincy. Tyler Stephenson had his third straight game with a homer, this one with two of them. After a brutal June where he hit .223/.303/.353, Stephenson is loving life in July. He won’t hit homers every night, but the counting stats opportunities are there batting fourth or fifth in a Reds lineup that has scored five or more runs in nine of their last 10 games.
J.P. Crawford (SEA): 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI.
J.P. Crawford also went yard in Seattle’s rout of the Angels, adding a single and double to his stat line as well. Crawford hits leadoff for Seattle every day and hasn’t found much success lately, or at all this season. The shortstop is batting .212 in 2024 and is best left on the wire.
Brandon Marsh (PHI): 2-4, 3B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Everyone’s favorite oily long-haired Phillie Brandon Marsh smacked his ninth home run of the year and added an RBI triple in the Phillies’ victory over the Dodgers. Marsh has been red-hot in this Phillies-Dodgers series. He went 5-for-10 with two home runs, helping the Philly sweep the three-game series. It’s nice to see Marsh get some consistent success after battling injuries early on in 2024. At only 23% rostered on Yahoo! he’s a great pickup for deeper leagues or those who start four or more outfielders.
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA): 3-4, HR, R, RBI.
Bryan De La Cruz quietly hit his 16th home run of the season for the Marlins. That’s 16 homers in 365 PAs, well on his way to crushing his 19 homers in 579 PAs from 2023. De La Cruz’s .247 BA and .295 OBP are poor, but the power is real, and his Barrel% is up from 8.8% in 2023 (39 barrels) to 11.5% in 2024 (30 barrels). He’s also slashing .333/.379/.444 in the last week.
Riley Greene (DET): 3-4, R, 3 RBI.
Riley Greene had a solid game for the Tigers, smacking three singles and collecting three RBI. Greene has 14 home runs, 54 runs, and 48 RBI heading into the finals days before the All-Star break, but his counting stats tend to come in spurts. As the 23-year-old matures and the Tigers offense as a whole improves around him, his game will become more consistent and less streaky. Greene is an excellent buy in Dynasty formats, especially in OBP leagues, as Greene’s 12.3% BB% is in the 96th percentile.
Heliot Ramos (SFG): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Heliot Ramos slugged another homer on Thursday, his 14th of the season. Ramos might be the top waiver wire pickup of the year so far. His actual stats are phenomenal. His Statcast page is dark red in all the right places. A true league winner. Feel lucky and grateful if you snagged him.
Randy Arozarena (TBR): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Randy Arozarena hit his 12th home run, helping the Rays beat the Yankees in Tampa. Arozarena is having a terrible season and has been a fantasy bust for his owners. He’s still 94% rostered on Yahoo! even though his BA is .203 and was .171 as recently as June 13. He has been hitting better lately, slashing .275/.364/.471 in his last 30 games. However, his Barrel% is down 3.3% this season, and his HardHit% is down 6.6%. His expected stats are also not much better than his actual stats. Arozarena might be trending in the right way, but his underlying metrics are still a red flag for anyone trying to acquire him.
Masataka Yoshida (BOS): 3-4, HR, R, 4 RBI.
The Red Sox are having a great season, and a lot of it has to do with the surprising offensive outputs of players like Connor Wong and Wilyer Abreu, who both homered on Thursday. Masataka Yoshida was supposed to be an OBP and power threat in this offense but has struggled mightily this year. Yesterday Yoshida hit his fourth home run and had a four-RBI game against the A’s. Maybe fantasy managers ditched Yoshida earlier in the season during his cold streak and subsequent injury, but those who kept their faith have seen the outfielder slash a more expected line of .321/.377/.482 over the last two weeks, with three homers and 12 RBI, mostly out of the six-hole. Check your wire!
