Vlad Swoon Rising
Vladimir Guerrero (TOR): 3-5, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Dingers. That’s what you want from your first baseman, right? In that sense, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a touch underwhelming, going yard 13 times in 377 at-bats. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Nick Kurtz has 19 in 141 fewer at-bats. Shoot, Ryan O’Hearn has a dozen in 292 at-bats. I think we are waiting for the return of the Vlad who banged 48 home runs in 2021. Alas, Vlad’s Power+ of 111 is good but not all-world good, and down about a standard deviation relative to last year’s 125.
Vlad, of course, remains a unicorn, mixing 98th percentile bat speed with an 85th percentile whiff rate and a 90th percentile chase rate. No one can doubt he is Toronto’s engine. Last night, he got the Jays on the board with a double off Reese Olson in the sixth inning of their 11-4 win over the Tigers. Have you noticed the Jays have the lowest team K rate at 17.4%? The Royals are second at 18.6%. They have been an almost menace, handing Jacob deGrom, who has the third-best PLV among pitchers with at least 1,500 pitches thrown, the first strikeout-less performance of his career back on May 25th. At home in the Rogers Centre, their K rate drops to 16.5%. I’m thinking they might be dangerous with home-field advantage come October.
Vlad is slashing .289/.393/.448 with a 135 wRC+, the latter one point off his career mark and illustrating that he, of course, remains a tremendously impactful player despite his home run swing having gone quiet, so far, at least, because we all know dingers are lying dormant in his bat waiting to be unleashed. It’s inevitable. In the meantime, his penchant for putting the bat on the ball will suffice. Case in point, he hit into a fielder’s choice that brought home the go-ahead run in Wednesday’s huge win over Max Fried and the Yankees. Sure, it wasn’t pretty, but putting the ball in play with runners aboard is a proven way to pressure the other team. It’s a big reason why the Jays are soaring with the best record in the AL.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Thursday:
Brendan Donovan (STL): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Down 2-1 in the second, Donovan ripped a line drive into the right field seats for a go-ahead, two-run bomb off Yu Darvish (385 feet, 109.6 EV). The 28-year-old lefty won’t rack up steals or home runs, but he remains a points league stalwart, his 13.3% K rate ranking 19th-lowest among qualifiers. He also entered the night with a 122 wRC+ while hitting a career-best .292.
Steven Kwan (CLE): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Down 3-2 in the fifth, Kwan socked a curveball from Charlie Morton into the right field seats (371 feet, 98.6 EV). The Guardians lost, but, yes, in case you were wondering, that was indeed the first multi-home run game of Kwan’s career. Cleveland’s leadoff hitter entered the afternoon hitting .285 with a 110 wRC+, the latter a far cry from last year’s 131. However, he is one stolen base away from tying last year’s dozen.
Ernie Clement (TOR): 2-4, HR, R, 4 RBI.
After giving up a game-tying double to Vlad in the sixth, Reese Olson intentionally walked Addison Barger. Big mistake! Clement, hitting sixth, then swatted a hanging curveball into the left field seats for a go-ahead, three-run shot (396 feet, 101.8 EV). Clement has been a tremendously important player for the Jays, playing at least a dozen games at each infield position, excluding catcher, while hitting .281 with a 95 wRC+. However, an unexciting track record leaves the 30-year-old utility man as a deep-league play only.
Lefty outfielder Nathan Lukes hit leadoff for the Jays and also socked one out, a two-run shot in the eighth inning.
Iván Herrera (STL): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Chances are, we would be talking about Herrera a lot more if not for two stints on the IL, which have limited him to 49 games. Last night’s solo shot off lefty reliever Wandy Peralta was an absolute tank (412 feet, 111.5 EV), putting an exclamation point on a 9-7 Cards win. He entered the night hitting .305 with a 146 wRC+; the latter would rank third among qualified catchers.
Angel Martínez (CLE): 1-3, R, BB.
Not the most exciting line, but the 23-year-old switch-hitter has hit first or second in each of Cleveland’s past six games. He has made the rounds on the waiver wire lately, hitting .254 with nine homers and six steals across 313 PAs with a 90 wRC+. Martínez has demonstrated good contact; however, his swing decisions (64 DV+) and lack of power raise questions about how long his role at the top of the lineup will last.
Ramón Laureano (BAL): 1-5, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Laureano cracked the scoreboard of yesterday’s 4-3 win over Cleveland with a first-inning, two-run jolt off lefty Logan Allen to deep right-center (414 feet, 105.3 EV). The 31-year-old righty entered the afternoon hitting .277 with a 136 wRC+ across 259 PAs. His 14th home run ties the most he has hit since 2021 in Oakland, and PLV doesn’t think it’s a mirage either, ranking his Power+ 116, a standard deviation above average.
Nick Kurtz (ATH): 3-5, 2 2B, RBI.
Kurtz entered the night hitting .281 with a 160 wRC+; the latter would rank fifth among qualifiers, trailing Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Will Smith, and Shohei Ohtani. Last night, he doubled off Astros righty George Costanza Jason Alexander, pushing the A’s further ahead 3-0 in the fourth. He is also riding an 11-game hit streak. Not bad for a 22-year-old rookie.
Taylor Trammell (HOU): 3-4, SB.
You might remember Trammell as a prospect with the Mariners a few years ago. He has led off for the Astros two consecutive nights, and I have no idea if that will last. However, he could be someone to monitor in deep leagues, given that he has shown ability in the past, most recently a Triple-A assignment with the Yankees last year, during which he hit .256 with 18 home runs and 20 steals, and a 129 wRC+ across 407 PAs.
Julio Rodríguez (SEA): 2-5, HR, R, RBI, SB.
Rodríguez tied the game 1-1 by going oppo on an elevated 95 mph fastball from Yusei Kikuchi (376 feet, 103.3 EV). He hasn’t had the season many had hoped for, hitting .252 with 14 home runs and a 108 wRC+, the latter of which would be the lowest of his career. PLV doesn’t paint an exciting picture, grading his Contact Ability+ at 91, his Power+ at 104, and his Process+ at 101. Still, there are maybe a handful of players who can match his upside. Case in point, last night, he became the first player in history with 20 steals and 15 home runs in each of his first four seasons.
Randy Arozarena (SEA): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Arozarena had what turned out to be the game-winner in the fifth inning, lining a slider from Yusei Kikuchi just over the right-field fence (376 feet, 110.4 EV). The two-run shot was his 19th of the year, and also his 11th since June 30th, tied for the most in baseball with Eugenio Suárez. He is also four away from tying his career-high two years ago with the Rays. PLV confirms, peak Arozarena has been something else.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X) and adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
