To Happ and to Hold

Ian Happ (CHC): 3-4, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Happ, who got off to a putrid start in April with an elevated K-rate and a .189 batting average. But he steadily locked in as Wrigley Summer came on and the winds have changed.

Since that rough April, Happ’s had at least five homers in every month since, and his lowest monthly OPS was .779 in May. He’s always been a points league stud, with an elite 12.8% walk rate and decent power, but this year he’s become a four-category player. He’s even chipped in 11 steals, three shy of last year’s career high.

 

Happ was moved to the leadoff spot on July 30th and has been locked in at every game since then. In August he’s slashing a robust .267/.352/.556 with six homers, eight doubles, and four steals. That’s a top-25 hitter.

In this afternoon’s epic score-a-palooza between the Cubs and Pirates, Happ came to the plate six times and reached base in five of them, including three hits and two walks. In his first at-bat, Happ lasered a Paul Skenes fastball to center for a double. All four of his batted balls were 96 mph or greater, including a 108.2-mph RBI single. He’d also score twice. All told, just another day at the office for one of the game’s most well-rounded (and underrated) hitters.

 

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday:

Christian Bethancourt (CHC): 3-5, 2B, HR, 3 R, 7 RBI, SB.

Happ benefited from a career day by the Cubs’ number-nine hitter, who drove in a whopping seven runs. Bethancourt’s metrics don’t exactly leap off the page, but he does have decent bat speed and a 39.% hard-hit rate. In a 14-10 game where he’d get five at-bats, he singled (105.9 mph), doubled (99.7 mph), and homered (106.1 mph). He’s also fairly quick for a catcher (59th-percentile sprint speed) and stole third base in the eighth inning. Not bad for a player who had one hit in his first 31 at-bats this season.

 

Yordan Alvarez (HOU): 4-4, 3 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, BB.

They call him Grande, and he lived up to it today. Alvarez hit his 26th, 27th, and 28th homers of the year in epic fashion, helping the Astros romp Philadelphia in a 10-0 blowout. His first homer came down the line against starter Taijuan Walker, and he followed that up with two shots to straightaway center off Michael Mercado. Alvarez also added a line-drive single and a walk to boot. Alvarez’s most impressive stat might be his career-low 14.9% K-rate, which is remarkable for a slugger of his caliber. It’ll be a crowded first round in next year’s drafts, but Grande belongs on the list.

 

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 4-4, 4 R, RBI, BB.

PCA’s hot streak has been well-documented, but consider his last 79 at-bats: a .398 OBP and .980 slugging percentage, with two triples, four home runs and six steals. With speed comparable to Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr, all PCA needs to do is put the ball in play, and he’s starting to do that at an impressive level. Striking out at a 39.1% clip in June, he’s lowered that to 15.2% in August. A highly-touted prospect, the potential is immense. Grab him if you can.

 

Vinnie Pasquantino (KCR): 4-5, HR, R, RBI.

Like Happ, Vinnie P had a lousy start to the season, but there was a good excuse–he was coming off a torn labrum from the season before.  He’s gotten consistently better in every month since, batting .261 in May, .276 in June, and .309 in July, and is now starting to show off the elite contact skills that put him on everyone’s sleeper list two seasons ago. He’s now up to a 96th-percentile K-rate and his hard-hit rate has been steadily climbing all year, now at 46.4%. Batting between Bobby Witt Jr. and a resurgent Salvador Perez, Pasquantino is racking up counting stats as well and is now third in the American League with 97 RBI.

 

Corbin Carroll (ARI): 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI.

Darn right, he’s back. Carroll hit five home runs in 353 at-bats before the All-Star break, and has TWELVE in the 128 since. He’s cut back on the steals, possibly to preserve his shoulder, but it’s also hard to steal a base after you’ve rounded them all (he also has six triples since the break and it’s hard to steal home). Capping this ridiculous run, Carroll took a hanging slider for a ride last night, launching a 397-foot grand slam to win the game. And that was his second dinger of the game. I’ll say it again, he’s back!

 

Lawrence Butler (OAK): 2-5, HR, R, 2 RBI, SB.

After a ridiculous July where he went off with a 1.210 OPS and 10 homers, Butler cooled off significantly, with only one home run in his next 16 games. Well, he’s hot again, launching three no-doubters in the last six (including a 444-foot bomb the day before). Butler isn’t statistically fast at only a 60th-percentile sprint speed, but he’s now up to a 12 steals in 306 ABs and hasn’t been caught once. He’s a potential 25/25 guy next year.

 

Dylan Crews (WSN): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 2 RBI.

Washington’s new outfield of Young/Crews/Wood is special. Crews narrowly missed a home run yesterday with a double off the wall, but put one over in his third major league game with a 105.4-mph bomb off Carlos Rodón. Drafted second overall in 2023, Crews only has logged 135 games in the minors and had 13 homers and 25 steals in 100 MiLB games this season. The ceiling is the sky for this one.

 

James Wood (WSN): 2-4, R, RBI, 3 SB.

With three steals in this one (and nine for the month), Wood is running wild. He’s been caught seven times in 18 attempts this year–so his timing could use some improvement–but he’ll get plenty of chances given his approach. In less than 200 at-bats in the bigs, Wood has shown an elite walk rate (12.6%) and average exit velocity (93 mph), and though he’s striking out a lot (28.8% K-rate) he’s got a .377 OBP. The Nationals might be the most exciting young team in baseball.

 

Spencer Torkelson (DET): 2-3, HR, R, 2 RBI.

Before his demotion to Triple-A, the first-overall draft pick in 2020 had a .201/.266/.330 slash rate.  A couple of months in the minors has done some good as he’s slashing .333/.391/.667 since rejoining the Tigers. He’s also got seven runs and eight RBI in just 42 at-bats, producing in the middle of Detroit’s order. He’s still striking out at around the same rate (12 K’s in those 42 AB’s) but the swing path is much improved and he’s hitting the ball as hard as he ever has in his career. If Tork’s still out there, ride him the rest of the way.

 

Luis Arraez (SDP): 4-5, 2 2B, R.

Luis Arraez has a .310 batting average before the All-Star break. He’s also got a .310 batting average AFTER the All-Star break, including seven hits in his last two games. Arraez has always been considered a one-category wonder (he gets you Batting Average and that’s about it), but he does have seven steals on the season (a career high) and is up to 69 runs scored.  San Diego has been sitting him a bit against lefties but his stats against them aren’t terrible (.265 AVG, 17:6 K:BB) and it’s not like he’s in a full-blown platoon. A .350 BA the rest of the season is not unthinkable–after all, that’s what he hit all of last season.