Under my Umbrelly, Elly, Elly…

Elly De La Cruz (CIN): 3-4, 2 2B, 3 R, 2 RBI, SB.

Coming into this game in a 1-for-16 mini-slump, Elly broke out of it in a big way with three hits, two doubles, three runs scored, and two RBI. And this is after only seven innings of work–in a lopsided win against the Astros (the Reds scored nine in the first), David Bell pulled several starters.

Elly’s emerged this year as a true five-category superstar, exceeding his loftiest projections (and they were VERY lofty). He’s still prone to slump from time to time (see above), but a monster game is usually around the corner.

So what’s he done to make the leap? Other than run wild on the bases, it’s a lot of little things combining into something larger. First off, the strikeout rate has dropped from a very bad 33.7% to 29.8%. Still not great, but a 4% improvement is significant (that’s 25 more balls in play over a season). His walk percentage has also gotten better, 10.2% this year compared to 8.2% last year.

The contact and power are both improving as well. His barrel rate is 12.5% compared to 8.5% in 2023 and his average EV is up to 92.0 mph, a slight improvement over last year’s 91.2, all leading to an xSLG 54 points higher than last year’s.

And he’s doing all this at both sides of the plate. As a righty in ’23, the switch-hitting Elly slashed .184/.231/.263, for a .494 OPS.  This year he’s up to .222/.314/.351–hardly a tremendous slash line but a big step forward, enough that the talk he should only bat lefty has died down. Speaking of which, as a lefty in 2023 he slashed .255/.328/.471–in 2024, it’s now .280/.358/.535.

So there’s no one answer as to why he’s taken the leap–again, it’s the little things that add up to a lot. And Elly belongs in the first-round discussion next year because this might not be his ceiling.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday

Gunnar Henderson (BAL): 2-2, HR, R, RBI.

Speaking of taking the leap–Henderson hit his 35th homer against the White Sox (surprisingly, the only run the O’s would manage), the most homers by a Baltimore shortstop ever (Cal had 34 in his ’91 MVP season). Henderson had a bit of a down July/August as his slugging was just .407 over that span, but he’s slashing .467/.550/.933 in September’s limited sample size so the page might be turning. He’s in the Top 10% of most Statcast metrics (expected batting average and slugging, bat speed, average exit velo, etc.) and could double last year’s steals (he’s at 17, finished 2023 with 10). He’s having the year Kyle Tucker would’ve had if Tucker was healthy.

 

Dansby Swanson (CHC): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

In a night of blowouts, the Cubs’ was the most impressive by no-hitting the Pirates while piling up a dozen runs. Chicago’s offense has been on fire for a month now and Swanson’s a big reason why, batting .299 since the All-Star break with 10 steals (he only had five before the break in twice the plate appearances). And he’s got two homers this week already, with 10 hits in his last 19 ABs. Now that his wife’s a gold medalist, maybe he decided he had to up his game?

 

Cody Bellinger (CHC): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Few Cubs hitters have exceeded their ADP, and perhaps Bellinger has been the most disappointing. He didn’t hit the ball hard last year but still had tremendous success– which is why he landed on so many bust lists in the preseason. As expected, this year the luck has regressed. His WOBA is down to .317 this year after being a top 10% .370 last year, his ISO is down from .218 to .157, and his BABIP is also down from .319 to .289 (still probably better than it should be). He also got a little lucky on tonight’s home run (it would’ve gone yard in just 3/30 MLB ballparks, Wrigley being one of them), but after missing most of July with a broken finger, Belly might be turning a corner?

 

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.

Okay, one more Cub. PCA somehow reached base three times but didn’t attempt a steal–he’s at 26 in just 293 at-bats, which means he could swipe 50 over a full season. But the steals don’t matter as much when you’re batting over .300 since August 1st and have 20 RBI and scored 22 runs. That is some insane run production. The strikeouts are ticking back up, which may be a bit of a warning sign, but so far the results are still there.

 

Alex Bregman (HOU): 1-2, 2B, R.

Along with a few other Astros, Bregman had a rough start to the season. Batting just .189 as of May 8th, he slowly started turning things around and is now up to .261, in line with his career average. Bregman had a tremendous August with seven home runs (and somehow just 10 total RBI for the month?) with a .303 average and a .947 OPS. He’d missed the last few games with an elbow issue but was back on in this one and smacked a double to right field in his first at-bat. Perhaps most encouragingly, he played third and didn’t just DH. He’d get pulled early in the blowout but it’s a good sign that he’s back and in the field.

 

Wyatt Langford (TEX): 3-4, 2B, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB.

With Corey Seager moving to the IL and possibly out for the season, Langford finds himself in the two-hole and is making the most of it. After walking off the Yankees last night with a ninth-inning grand slam, Langford went 3-4 in this one and contributed to the blowout. He’s hitting .400 in his last four games with a 1.433 OPS, and the run production is off the charts (six runs and seven RBI). After an incredible spring that saw him flying up draft boards, Langford hasn’t quite paid off his investment–but there’s still a month to go and that could change very quickly.

 

Mickey Moniak (LAA): 1-3, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.

Moniak might be the least-respected number-one draft pick in baseball. Drafted first overall out of high school back in 2016, Moniak struggled for years but broke out somewhat last year with an .802 OPS in 311 plate appearances. He also had 113 strikeouts compared to 9 walks but managed to hit .280 with an OPS+ of 113. He hasn’t quite matched that this season, but tonight’s game helped as he crushed a 437-foot bomb off Bobby Miller in the first inning. And the K:BB ratio has improved this year to 97:17, so there’s some potential fantasy relevance worth keeping an eye on.

Victor Robles (SEA): 3-4, 2 2B, 3 R, 3 RBI, BB.

Can you remember when Robles was ranked a better prospect in the Nationals organization than Juan Soto? While their career paths have branched significantly, Robles appears to have found something in Seattle. He’s batting .295 with nine doubles and 16 RBI after the All-Star break, with fourteen steals (not being caught once) in 139 at-bats. That’s a 60-steal pace over a full season.  Robles has never hit for power, but if you need a decent batting average and good speed he will help you.