This has been a pretty subjectively weird season thus far in terms of player production. Plenty of guys you absolutely knew were going to be a lock for good production have either underperformed or gotten hurt. Plenty of others have come out of nowhere to showcase the ability to reach superstardom. I’m looking at you, Jared Jones.
Now in terms of points leagues, it’s been just as interesting. There have been plenty of guys who’ve struggled unexpectedly. I don’t think any points league players had an almost 30% strikeout rate Julio Rodríguez on their bingo board. By now you likely expected him to have at least five home runs, let alone five total XBH. The same goes for guys like Zac Gallen and Kevin Gausman who’ve each only registered two quality starts through their first six and seven starts.
With that in mind, let’s get back to what this article is all about. This is meant to help those of you in points leagues hone in on who you should be buying and selling right now. When referring to players you should “buy”, they tend to be players over or underperforming whose value should continue to increase. They’re players who I feel will cost you more in the future than they will right now.
When it comes to the “sell” list, that does not mean drop. Please understand that. The players who qualify for the “sell” list are the ones who have reached their maximum value. They may remain good-performing players this season, but their value will never be higher than it is right now. When it comes to your roster it should always be about trying to get better and maximizing the value of your players while you can.
Let’s get into the list.
“Buy Me, Please”
2024 Stats: .235 | 1 HR | 12 R | 15 RBI
Last season I was screaming from the rooftops that Yandy needed to be a must-roster player in points leagues. This season didn’t get off to the same type of start, but honestly, right now he falls back into that category. On the year his ground-ball rate is a career-high (61%) and he’s barreled up only two balls. Despite that, he still has a 50% hard-hit rate and 107.8 MPH 90th percentile EV.
Yandy is still doing all the things you like. He’s limiting strikeouts, not chasing pitches, and making good in-zone contact. He’s still crushing the baseball, he just needs to stop pounding it into the ground. Since April 17th, he has had that same 60% ground-ball rate but has found a way to hit .277 and make zone contact 93.5% of the time.
When trading for him you’re hoping for that groundball rate to rebound, so there is some risk, but everything points to him being the same player he has always been. Let him start barreling the ball like he traditionally does and the rest of the dominoes should fall into place. With him sporting the low average and home run numbers, you may never trade for Yandy Díaz for less than it will cost right now.
2024 Stats: .167 | 1 HR | 5 R | 7 RBI
I’ve heard the rumblings that you guys want some more widely available players on this list. Or at least one person said it in the comments and maybe I took it to heart a bit too much. Either way, that one guy should be excited because Nootbaar is next up. Much like Yandy, not a lot has changed for Lars from 2023 to 2024. Yet, he’s still averaging just 1.3 fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues.
I understand he’s on a pretty rough stretch. He’s walked just twice in his last 13 games which is very unlike the master of plate discipline. The problem is…honestly, I don’t know. I can honestly admit that Nootbaar has me stumped.
| Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | O-Swing% | SwStr% | |
| 2023 | 54.5% | 89.1% | 83.6% | 20.4% | 5.8% |
| 2024 | 55.1% | 89.5% | 83.7% | 21% | 6% |
To say the two batted ball profiles are similar may be an understatement. Not only is everything similar, but his line drive rate has improved to a career-best 22%. He also has a career-best 92 MPH average EV and a 50.8% hard-hit rate. His xBA (.259) and xSLG (.450) are also the highest and second-highest numbers of his career.
Despite all the positives you can find, his hitter performance has seen a pretty crazy plummet down the mountain lately. Use this as the time to try and get a deal on Lars from a frustrated manager who rosters him. Or use it to your advantage to snag him off the waiver wire. Whichever the option is, Nootbaar can literally only go up from here.
“Sell Now While You Still Can”
2024 Stats: .360 | 4 HR | 19 R | 32 RBI
When I said the sell category was for players whose value will never be higher, I was picturing Alec Bohm in my head while I said it. Bohm is, well, he’s a pretty good player who had himself a fun season in 2023 but he tends to be very streaky. Much of his current stat line right now is a result of that exact streakiness.
Bohm had a 10-game stretch against the White Sox, Reds, and not-so-good Padres pitching. In that 10-game stretch, he slashed .548/.578/.976 with 12 extra-base hits and 15 RBI. Impressive, but incredibly unsustainable. Outside of that stretch, in his other 26 games, he’s hitting .252 with just six extra-base hits and a still respectable 17 RBI.
The issue with Bohm is since that incredibly hot stretch, his decision-making and aggression at the plate have taken a turn for the worst.
The more Bohm starts feeling himself at the plate, the more aggressive he tends to get and it’s not necessarily a good thing. He seems to be heading into one of those stretches where his production slows from a great fantasy option to just an ok one. That’s where selling him comes into play. His value right now, coming off of that incredible 10-game stretch, is at its absolute highest. Try and see if you can move him for a struggling star like Corey Seager or Vladimir Guerrero Jr (you may have to add a depth piece from your pitching rotation to sweeten the deal). There are plenty of guys you can find elsewhere that can match Bohm’s production the rest of the season for much cheaper.
2024 Stats: 3-1 | 29 IP | 37 Ks | 2.79 ERA | 0.93 WHIP
Nick Lodolo is a fun pitcher. That’s a pretty good way to describe him. I can’t quite put my finger on whether or not he’s an all-around “good” pitcher, but he’s fun. Part of that comes from the fact that he’s never healthy (just 31 starts total in his three seasons), and the other part comes from the fact that he has the propensity to get shelled. Great American Ballpark sure doesn’t help.
I preach all the time in this article, quality starts are king in points leagues. You not only need a pitcher that’s readily available start after start, but you need one that can consistently pump out quality ones. Not just for the sake of “duh quality starts are better”, either. Traditionally in points leagues, you get points for innings pitched and are dinged for hits, runs, and walks allowed. So pitchers who can consistently give you six innings and three earned runs or less become essential. Typically fewer runs mean fewer hits. You use strikeout-minus-walk rate to find the guys who can capitalize on strikeout points while limiting walks.
I say all of this to point out to you that Lodolo has just 11 quality starts in his first 31 times on the mound. The highs are certainly high, but counting on a guy who you can all but guarantee won’t get you a quality start is tough. Yes, the highs are very high. His seven-inning, one-hit, 11-strikeout performance was exciting and so much fun to watch. His “stuff” is incredible and always will be. But when it comes to being able to get consistent production out of him you just won’t get it.
In the points league universe you’re better off capitalizing on these couple of great starts he’s had to begin the season and move him for a more consistent pace. Someone like Seth Lugo. Much more boring of a player, but much better in the long run.
How about a Tanner Bibee vs Yu Darvish in a 12-teamer? Can’t seem to decide on who to lean on?
Both are tough. Darvish is going to get the innings I’d prefer to see in a points league so I think I lean that way a bit.
Thank you! Love the content overall, keep up the good work!