We’re at a sweet spot in the fantasy baseball season where hot and cold starts are beginning to look more like long-term trends than small-sample randomness. If you can correctly identify which red-hot or ice-cold players are bound to see their fortunes change and make the corresponding roster move, you’ll have a major leg up on your opponents.
That’s exactly what we’ll be trying to do in this article: find the hitters who have been underperforming their expectations but are still displaying strong swing decisions at the plate. To do that, we’ll be using one of Pitcher List’s own metrics, Decision Value, a plate discipline metric that shows more than a hitter’s ability to judge balls and strikes, but to recognize the pitches he can turn into favorable contact. Decision Value is graded on a scale where 100 is the league average, and every 15 points above or below 100 is one standard deviation.
For a more in-depth description of Decision Value, check out the initial piece in this series. You can support Pitcher List and get access to all our PLV statistics by joining PL Pro.
William Contreras – 126 Decision Value
The first catcher off draft boards this spring, William Contreras, hasn’t lived up to the lofty standards we’ve come to expect from the two-time All-Star. The Brewers’ backstop is still doing a good job at getting on base, posting a .255/.373/.366 slash line through 46 games. What’s notably missing is his power production. He collected 56 and 62 extra-base hits in his first two seasons in Milwaukee but has just 10 so far in 2025.
The good news is that the younger Contreras brother is only getting better at identifying which pitches he should swing at. His Decision Value has risen each of the last four seasons, beginning at 103 in 2022 and peaking at 126 this year. He’s been particularly good at identifying pitches outside of the strike zone, with his oDV of 120 bearing out in his career-high marks in both strikeouts (17.6%) and walk rate (16.1%). His 0.91 BB/K ratio is the 12th highest among qualified batters.
Contreras’ power numbers are down across the board – each of his xwOBA, xSLG, Avg. EV, barrel%, hard-hit%, and bat speed have all tumbled – but there’s a good explanation for the decline in hard contact. It was recently revealed that Contreras has been playing with a broken left middle finger.
The fact that he’s been on the field for 47 of the Brewers’ 49 games (and behind the plate for 41 of those) while dealing with a serious hand injury is astonishing. Contreras hasn’t been dead weight in the lineup either. He’s still been an above-average offensive contributor (110 wRC+) despite the waning power.
Now is a great time to buy low on Contreras if his fantasy manager is frustrated with the lack of power production at the plate. His hand should only continue to feel better, and when you combine health with improved swing decisions, the best catcher in fantasy baseball might get even better.
Ian Happ – 120 Decision Value
Despite being one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last four seasons, Ian Happ’s typically been a slow starter, and that’s been the case once again in 2025. Happ’s slashing .259/.350/.365 on the year, and his story is similar to Contreras’. That batting average and OBP are right in line with what we’ve come to expect from the three-time Gold Glove winner, but his power’s been absent so far. He’s only left the yard three times through 197 plate appearances after averaging 22 bombs per season dating back to 2021.
Happ’s always had a good eye at the plate, but it’s gotten even better in 2025. His 120 Decision Value is a new high-water mark, and also like Contreras, he’s excelled at identifying pitches outside of the zone with his 119 oDV.
You can really see the strength of Happ’s Decision Value in his Process+ chart below. Look at how tall those Decision bars are!
Despite the little power he’s put on display, Process+ still likes what he’s been doing at the plate as a whole, and I think we’re bound to see a resurgence back to Happ’s typical level of production soon. Even his Statcast expected statistics think he’s underperformed. He has an xBA of .283, xSLG of .455, and an xwOBA of .362, all of which best his actual numbers of .259, 365, and .322, respectively.
Happ just returned from a minimum stint on the IL due to an oblique injury and was immediately reinstated as the club’s leadoff hitter, so even if it does take a little longer for his power to reappear as he reacclimates to playing every day, he should remain viable in all fantasy leagues hitting at the top of a potent lineup. Now’s a great time to make a move for Happ, and if you’re in a shallow league, there’s a small chance he’s even sitting on your waiver wire.
Nick Kurtz – 119 Decision Value
Fantasy managers who jumped on the Nick Kurtz bandwagon when rumors started swirling about his inevitable call-up have been disappointed by their early returns, but it seems to only be a matter of time until the A’s rookie masher gets rolling. Through his first 92 big league plate appearances, Kurtz is slashing .226/.272/.381 with just three home runs.
If you’re looking for a reason to buy into Kurtz besides his absolute torching of the minor leagues – a 1.120 OPS across three different levels – how about his 119 Decision Value? That’s the 29th-best mark among hitters who’ve seen at least 300 pitches. Pretty impressive for a rookie debuting with sky-high expectations from day one.
You may be surprised to see Kurtz faring so well in Decision Value with his accompanying 35.9% strikeout rate, but it’s less of a factor of him knowing what to swing at and more of him just not making contact. Kurtz’ 68.9% contact rate is very low, but the poor contact alone isn’t reason enough to avoid him. For reference, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Oneil Cruz, Byron Buxton, and Kyle Stowers are all among the bottom 10 in contact rate and make contact less often than Kurtz does. You don’t want to be on a low contact list, but if you are, that’s certainly not bad company to have.
Kurtz’ less-than-ideal contact ability isn’t exactly a surprise since it was well-documented in many of his prospect profiles, but he’ll need to cut down that strikeout rate a bit and turn the corresponding contact into damage to tap into his true upside. I think he’ll be able to do that as he continues to adjust to seeing the best pitching he’s ever faced, especially because he’s seen some of the toughest pitches of anyone in the game. Another PLV stat, Pitch Runs, tells us that only two other hitters have seen harder-to-hit pitches than Kurtz.
Unless you’re in a shallow league or are loaded with talent at corner infield, I’d be very patient with Kurtz. He should get going soon, and the warm Sacramento weather will turn his home games into slugfests on the regular. Kurtz isn’t likely on the market in keeper or dynasty leagues, but in redraft formats, I’d be checking in to see if you can buy low on a potential top-10 first baseman the rest of the way.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads, @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
