From Dusk Til Sean

Old roundup.

We have to talk about Sean Manaea. After holding a 3.24 ERA and 8.80 in his previous 15 starts, Manaea was finally getting a good schedule ahead of him. Things were looking up and we all celebrated as he was set to face the Jays, Giants, Mets, and Angels. To our dismay, he’s held a 6.63 ERA with a paltry 5.21 K/9 in that time, amplified by yesterday afternoon’s 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Dude, what is this. You push the rock up the hill for so long and now that you get near the top you’re letting it crush you. He’s been struggling with his Changeup – the pitch he’s been throwing about 25% of the time – and turning to his Slider less often, bringing down his whiff rates. Speaking of that Slider, he’s normally burying that down-and-in to right-handers, but has lately lost the feel for that, featuring more in the middle part of the zone and beneath it. With both secondary pitches failing him, he’s simply not getting the strikeouts as before and it’s gone poorly. I want to say that this can come around and I doubt there is a better option on your wire, though I completely understand benching him for the Orioles next. My gut says that he’ll figure it out there, but it’s the wise move to treat this like a stash until he gets it together.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Clayton Richard – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayon!*  *That looked like the real Clayton. For once.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. So Ryu spent his days off in a Hazmat suit and managed to pitch this game against the Mets, which was as luscious as we could have ever hoped. I like to think this stream made up for the string of ties I put together prior. Now he gets the Padres next and you have to start him there too. Streamer Record 58-40-14. 

Chris Archer – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. You guys do realize he holds an 11.05 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9, right? Yes, 3.80 ERA is higher than we want, but a 3.24 FIP and 3.40 xFIP make me believe he’s better than that questionable number. Anyway, enjoy your Gallows Pole with 18 whiffs.

Jeff Hoffman – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. This was the first start in 11 that he’s had a whiff rate above 10%. Back on June 10th. Jeeeeeez. All it took was a date with the Phillies inside of Coors.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Pfffft, 12 baserunners and 1 ER? I guess you’re bound to have some good luck if you keep putting yourself in these situations.

Jake Junis – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. After allowing 20 ER in his five starts (the last one coming on June 29th), Junis gave us this lovely evening in his first start back in the rotation like the two-faced man he is. Oh lord, are you really bringing that back again? Yes, because I’m confusing him with Janis Y’ALL NEED TO SUFFER. For the record, you don’t want to to take this chance. Yes, he threw more Sinkers than ever in this one while cutting back with his Slider. Seeing that in one start isn’t enough for me to believe it, especially when he got a 5.3% whiff rate. Womp womp.

Jimmy Nelson – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Him and Nola are on such crazy runs.

Aaron Nola – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. See? And this one was in Coors. Aces gonna ace. I love you Easy A.

Luis Severino – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. So The Bear has left the rotation and has been sent to Triple-A to conserve his innings. This affects Severino as well since he won’t get as much rest in a five-man rotation as he would in a six-man. He’s at 139.1 innings now after tossing 151.1 last season. 180-190 seems like the limit but then there’s also the playoff run to consider…You have to think he gets one skip in the rotation in early September where Jordan Montgomery will step in for a start or two, right? DON’T JUST STAND THERE, SAY SOMETHING GIRARDI.

Jose Urena – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I know, I know, three of his last five games have been just 1 ER. The other 2 were 5 ER as he holds a 6.22 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9. Do you really want to make that Grave Mistake? Look at Nick, asking the deep questions. You guys deserve it.

Marcus Stroman – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Talk about getting Singled Out. It’s never easy facing the Astros (unless you’re Aaron Nola) and you’ll have to endure that near 2.00 WHIP for his solid ERA and 6 Ks. Don’t hesitate throwing Stroman out there moving forward.

Jameson Taillon – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. For all of you wanting to drop Taillon, it’s good that we got over that meltdown. Now please learn from that emotional moment and never do that again. Taillon, welcome back.

Patrick Corbin – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. It looked worse in the box score with three extra unearned runs, but overall here Corbin did well with his VPQS as you got 10 Ks to celebrate. Too bad he gets the Cubs next, the same team he allowed an 8 ER clunker to last time he faced them.

Danny Duffy – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks.  Oh man…So you guys know I joke about #DuffyVelocityWatch2017, right? It’s normally been around 92.5mph to 93mph, which is already lower than his ~94.5 from last year’s breakout. Well, that’s down to 92mph. yesterday, as he got his strikeouts via Changeups and Sliders. In fact, he threw just 40 heaters and 63 secondary pitches in this one. Smart man. Can’t wait to be low on Duffy next year.

Doug Fister – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Doug, is your goal this year to make all of my terms created in your name to become irrelevant? THat’s 12 Ks in two starts as you hold a 7.55 K/9. Lower that like two points, okay? Oh, and no you don’t want none of his 4.35 BB/9, 5.03 ERA, 4.83 xFIP and 15.5% soft/35.0% hard contact.

Jon Lester – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Yeah, I’m cool with this. Not spectacular, but 7 Ks and a solid WHIP work.

Jeff Samardzija – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhhh, I want more Samardzija. I know it was Arizona and this is actually decent against them, but now you get the Nats and I wanted to feel a little better about you before benching there, you know?

Adam Wainwright – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks. Man, I’m so happy Waino is back and Luke Weaver is out of the rotation. So happy.

Erick Fedde – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. The Feddes, they ruin everything!

Mike Fiers – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. This was really close to restarting the Fiers hype train, but I think it’s best if we head to another station.

Lucas Sims – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Can’t say this one is a major shock. Sims is a bit of a Cup of Schmo. The best one out there, but not a proper Spice Girl like his good friends.

Jose Berrios – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. A pair of HRs did Berrios in as he raised his ERA to 3.86 with a 8.28 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9. Kinda disappointing given that he definitely deserved his earlier success (those who are pointing at his xFIP in that time, his xStats told a different story). He’ll be taking another hit again later today in The List, and I’m thinking of slotting him in the mid to late 30s. It’s hard not to when he hasn’t fanned more than six since June 26th and he’s allowed 4+ ER in every other start.

Carlos Carrasco – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Wow, this is his third start in his last five that he’s allowed exactly 5 ER. That’s terrible. I want to say that I can believe he’ll recover and be consistent down the stretch, but that’s a tougher and tougher bet to make. Still, I’m starting him against the Rays and Twins next, and I have to think he’ll not be this bad, right? For all we know, he could go 1 ER and 8 Ks next time out.

Marco Gonzales – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I consider Gonzales a Young Gun, which means ignore him for this season but don’t forget the name next season as he gets more time on the bump.

Nick Martinez – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Nick, stop giving us a bad name. It hurts. A lot.

Steven Matz – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. At least he got you seven strikeouts this time!

Ricky Nolasco – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. #JustNolascoThings.

Erasmo Ramirez – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. This is why we don’t trust Erasmo. For every decent start that makes you say “hmmm”, he’ll give you one of these. RIGHT IN THE KISSER.

Mike Pelfrey – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Well, yeah, it’s Pelfrey.

Anibal Sanchez – 3.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Nothing like a near 4.00 WHIP. I feel like you need to try to make that happen.

Homer Bailey – 3.1 IP, 10 ER, 10 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Bailey made a good bid at the WHERST but ultimately came up short. He can’t even succeed at being terrible. It’s possible he pulls it together down the stretch, but there’s no way I’m investing it that.

Today’s Streamer

Brent Suter vs. Minnesota Twins – Just seven games on Monday, and with the few choices I’ll go with Suter despite not liking him much at all.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Sal Romano vs. San Diego Padres – There’s nothing else to turn to, so I’ll go with a strikeout threat against one of the most strikeout prone teams.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jerad Eickhoff vs. Atlanta Braves – I could imagine someone also rolling with his opponent Sean Newcombbut Eickhoff has the better floor.

Game of the Day

Max Scherzer vs. Miami Marlins – On a day with seven games, let’s go with the best pitcher of the lot.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

16 responses to “From Dusk Til Sean”

  1. Chris of Good Takes says:

    I know baseball can be a game of if’s and butt’s, but Carrasco was SO close to getting out of the 6th mostly unscathed when Abe Almonte lost a ball to right that ended up being Ellsbury’s bases-clearing triple. Ellsbury was then also brought home after Carlos exited the game. Brutal way to get a 5 spot on a day where he was mostly dealing.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Good point Chris, probably should have gone into that in the Roundup. It’s always a bit different seeing a pitcher get so close to escape damage than one who labors through the full game.

  2. Jeremy says:

    Think better options to Manaea at least on my wire could be Chacin or JC Ramirez. Who’d you prefer? Former has the tougher schedule ahead but at the same time has already proven effectiveness vs some of these top 10 teams, ie CIN, LAD or WAS. Thereafter Chacin looks to get STL, SF…hmmm

  3. Patrick says:

    Would you keep Manaea or drop him for Taillon?

  4. David Johnston says:

    I want to pick-up McHugh but can’t figure out who to drop…in my one league I was considering dropping Gausman or Manaea and in my other league thinking about dropping Duffy, Castillo or Berrios? Is McHugh better option than any of these guys?

    Though I guess your list later today should give me some insight into your response…. Where will McHugh climb to….stay tuned…..

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to own McHugh + Gaus right now over Manaea.

      My gut says it should be Manaea > McHugh > Gausman rest of the way though.

      Hold Duffy/Berrios/Castillo.

  5. Soggy Arm says:

    I shamed myself by picking up Cashner and Kuhl for the week. Nothing out there. I probably will have to move away from Clev, I’m assuming. Who to pick up– Jaime Garcia or Hoffman? I know, horrible. Somehow, I’m in 2nd place.

  6. Chucky says:

    I may be wrong, but……. two start Kennedy over the suddenly horrific Carasco?

  7. Asher Dratel says:

    Anybody who was about to drop Taillon doesn’t deserve him!

    • Facenda says:

      Respectfully, he had a 7.36 ERA in July, and currently sports a 9.00 for two August starts. Awful WHIP too. I like his potential, But a good start against the Padres isn’t enough to convince me that he’s a good option for this season.

      • Nick Pollack says:

        Well…let’s be a little a fair here. It’s really just two starts – one in July and one in August – that are causing those swings. Obviously that shouldn’t be ignored, but to throw ERA numbers over a larger period of time when it’s just two starts is a bit misleading.

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