In September, I wrote an article determining every team’s best player in the second half. It focused on both hitters and pitchers and included defense and other intangibles. In other words, it wasn’t necessarily fantasy-focused.
I’ve set forth to single out a few hitters from that list that deserve your attention for the upcoming fantasy draft season. How will this differ from the article I wrote mere months ago? Well, it’ll focus more on each selection’s fantasy production and why they deserve your attention in the draft room.
While these hitters won’t be considered sleepers, their performances in the second half hint at a higher ceiling that they may be able to carry over for a full season in 2024. Remember these hitters when drafting because you may be getting a discount due to full-season numbers not accurately reflecting the hitter these selections became by the end of 2023.
Here are four hitters with hot second halves that deserve your attention.
2nd Half Stats (211 PA): .317 AVG | .417 OBP | .617 SLG | 32 R | 15 HR | 38 RBI | 0 SB | 14.2 BB% | 23.7 K% | 175 wRC+
Casas had some growing pains in his first full season in the big leagues as he batted just .225 with a sub-league-average wRC+ in the first half. The All-Star break gave him just enough time off to make the necessary tweaks needed to return to crushing baseballs.
The most notable change was that he began to use the whole field. After pulling the ball more than 44% of the time in the first half, he pulled the ball less than 31% of the time in the second half, leading to a stretch of baseball unmatched by any rookie post-All-Star Break.
Maintaining his all-fields approach will be integral to the continuation of his success in 2024. Still, entering his age-24 campaign, we may have just witnessed Casas figuring out how to hit big-league pitching.
While that second-half surge increased his draft hype, it hasn’t gotten completely out of hand. Among Draft Champions drafts on the NFBC platform from the beginning of December to mid-January, Casas has an ADP of 112, making him the 10th first baseman off the board. At that point in the draft, he’s a steal if he can live up to his upside in the average department.
Steamer projects Casas for a .259 average and 29 long balls, but his late-season liftoff suggests an average that could live in the .275 range with room to go up from there. Even if we account for the .365 BABIP that boosted his numbers, he’d still be a monster of a fantasy contributor while lopping off 40-50 points of batting average.
Steamer projects 7 1B to hit .259+ with 26+ HR:
Matt Olson: .269, 40 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr: .285, 36 HR
Bryce Harper: .283, 30 HR
Triston Casas: .259, 29 HR 👀
Paul Goldschmidt: .269, 28 HR
Freddie Freeman: .302, 26 HR
Andrew Vaughn: .263, 26 HR 👀— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) January 12, 2024
If Casas attains his ceiling and he’s a .280 hitter with 30-35 bombs, he should be in the range of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is going off the board at 35 as the number five first baseman. If his floor is closer to the projections, he’d still be worth the draft slot at his current ADP. A clear alteration of his approach at the plate gives me confidence to suggest the former is more likely.
Don’t shy away from Casas by letting the projections fool you, he’s a talented young hitter who is about to explode in 2024.
2nd Half Stats (277 PA): .279 AVG | .339 OBP | .522 SLG | 36 R | 15 HR | 39 RBI | 0 SB | 6.1 BB% | 22 K% | 131 wRC+
An all-or-nothing power hitter with the White Sox with whom he batted just .214 but blasted 25 homers, Burger altered his skillset by becoming more contact-oriented with the Marlins. He batted .303 with nine dingers following his trade to Miami, but it wasn’t the change of scenery that led to his change in approach.
As Scott Chu has noted, Burger’s transformation from slugger to advanced hitter began before the trade. His decision-making on swings improved throughout the season, leading to a strikeout rate that declined consistently as the season wore on. Additionally, while his home run totals dipped, his power potential was still on display.
Double 🍔
Jake Burger homers for the second time today! pic.twitter.com/QWCwTdj1iI
— MLB (@MLB) September 2, 2023
Burger barreled the ball over 19% of the time in the first half and saw that drop to over 14% in the second half, a mark that still would’ve placed him in the top 30 in MLB among qualified hitters. With more contact, he should be able to make more use of his power than he did when he was striking out over 31% of the time with the White Sox.
I see Burger as the next Max Muncy. He’ll provide 30-home run power with batting averages that won’t hurt your team. The run production numbers won’t be there, but he has proven that his new average floor is higher than what Muncy is producing in his later years. Burger is going off the board at pick 161 in Draft Champions drafts on the NFBC platform from the beginning of December to mid-January. That makes him the 13th third baseman off the board, just nine picks ahead of Muncy.
If he lives up to his Steamer projections of a .249 average and 27 homers, he’ll be a perfectly serviceable starting third baseman for fantasy managers who waited to get him. However, he displayed a ceiling that was well above that baseline. Carrying over his improving decision-making could lead to a hitter that bats closer to .265 with more than 30 balls going over the fence. That production makes him a lot more similar to Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado who are going off the board around pick 100.
The run production numbers are likely to leave fantasy managers wanting more, but the potential ceiling similar to that of the aforementioned Casas should have intelligent managers itching to draft him at his discounted ADP.
2nd Half Stats (265 PA): .306 AVG | .377 OBP | .549 SLG | 45 R | 12 HR | 36 RBI | 1 SB | 10.2 BB% | 20.4 K% | 154 wRC+
It had been a while since Kepler’s 2019 breakout and we were getting awfully close to writing that campaign off as a juiced-ball-induced success. A healthy season and playing time in the outfield afforded Kepler a shot at recovering his abilities at the plate.
Despite hitting just .207 with 12 long balls in the first half, there were obvious signs that a second-half breakout was on the horizon for the German slugger. He produced a barrel rate north of 10% and severely underperformed his expected Statcast metrics.
In years past, a pull-heavy hitter like Kepler wasn’t guaranteed to improve upon his .213 BABIP from the first half. However, with the rule changes restricting infield shifting, the left-handed hitter was finally able to find success on balls in play.
His BABIP in the second half was nearly 50 points higher than it had been from 2018-22 and was a direct result of the shift ban. On top of that, he improved his batted ball metrics, barreling the ball 13.7% of the time with a hard-hit rate nearing 51%. Penciled into the middle of the Minnesota order, he has the opportunity to take advantage of the lack of shifts for an entire season if he can carry over his hard-hitting ways into 2024.
It’s not as if Kepler is always swinging for the fences either. That would be indicative of a player who is destined for a low batting average. On the contrary, he has produced a strikeout rate below 19% for his career, which suggests he’s making contact more often than the typical pulled-fly ball hitter. Unlike someone like Isaac Paredes (.250 AVG and 31 HR in 2023) who makes the most of his limited power by pulling everything, Kepler uses the whole field more often and displays legitimate force when he makes contact. His average floor should now be in the .250 range and his home run potential should be north of 30 given the barrel rates he posted in the second half and throughout his career.
Hitter #BloomBoards📊 on this fine Friday. Just 13 hitters with:
✅ An above-average strikeout rate (<22% K%) from 2021-23.
✅ Above-avg barrel rate (>8% Brl%) from 21-23.
✅ Going outside the Top 200 in recent drafts.Decent crop of boring old guy/rebound targets… pic.twitter.com/WlAoxjAn5L
— Ryan Bloomfield (@RyanBHQ) January 5, 2024
Kepler is, without a doubt, the biggest sleeper on this list. Among Draft Champions drafts on the NFBC platform from the beginning of December to mid-January, his ADP is at 287, making him the 67th outfielder off the board. If he hits at the levels Steamer projects him to (.250 AVG, 22 HR), it’s a perfectly safe ADP. In a better-case scenario, that could be a steal of a pick late in drafts. He’s proven that he could be a .270 hitter with 25-30 homers, production that would easily make him a top-150 pick.
Don’t buy in on him too late. Fantasy managers may catch on later in the draft season as more deep dives are done on players taken after pick 250. Come for the floor and stay for the ceiling.
2nd Half Stats (218 PA): .299 AVG | .335 OBP | .539 SLG | 31 R | 10 HR | 29 RBI | 1 SB | 5.5 BB% | 19.3 K% | 129 wRC+
Fantasy managers and Pirates fans alike have been waiting anxiously for Hayes to break out offensively ever since he gave us a taste of his offensive potential in 2020. As is the case with many players who show potential early on but take a while to grasp it, Hayes was a player who needed to pull the ball in the air more often, akin to the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yandy Díaz.
That’s exactly what Hayes did in a breakout second half in 2023. Interestingly enough, he actually started to make the change early in the season but didn’t reap the fruits of his labor until after the All-Star break. The 10 homers he hit in the second half would’ve been a career-high by themself. If you’re interested in the changes Hayes made on his way to attaining his true potential, check out the article I wrote about him last August.
Ke'Bryan Hayes is a Future All-Star. pic.twitter.com/PYr1JaV9jp
— District Baseball (@DistrictBSB) January 9, 2024
Locked into the top of the order every day due to his stellar play on the defensive end and the level of play he displayed in the second half, Hayes will be a machine who is going off the board at the perfect spot. Right now, his ADP is at 164 in Draft Champions drafts on the NFBC platform from the beginning of December to mid-January, making him the 15th third baseman off the board.
That seems fair given that projection systems are actually believing in his flyball renaissance. Steamer projects him for a .267 average with 17 homers and 17 stolen bases. That’s certainly an exceptional floor to shoot for in the middle portion of the draft. Unlike the three hitters mentioned previously, Hayes will be more of a floor play. I don’t see his ceiling being too far north of a .280 batting average and 25 long balls. The silver lining is that he could continue to improve as a hitter.
His 50.6% hard-hit rate in the second half would’ve placed him inside the top 20 of qualified hitters. If we witness a continuation of that level of power prowess combined with his newfound affinity to pulled fly balls, Hayes could find either or both of his batting average or home run ceilings skyrocket.
Even without another leap in production, Hayes is unlike any other third baseman due to his ability to hit the ball hard and steal bases. With a new-and-improved approach that paid off in spades in the second half and leading a lineup that is sure to improve in 2024, Hayes is set to have one of the most successful full-season breakouts of the 2024 campaign.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)
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