In the aftermath of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ season-ending, soul-crushing loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Division Series, fans rushed to social media to vent their frustration. From the Phillies’ inability to hold onto a 3-0 lead in Game 1 to Orion Kerkering’s you-had-to-see-it-to-believe-it throwing error to end Game 4 and the season, there was more than a little blame to go around. Even Bryce Harper, the Phillies’ star first baseman and hero of postseasons past, came under significant criticism. It was hardly unwarranted. In a series defined by dominant pitching, Harper’s stat line was not the exception, but the rule. As a team, the Phillies slashed .212/.299/.358 in the NLDS. Harper was about the same. He hit a paltry .200 for the series, only managing a single extra-base hit. He did draw a trio of walks in 18 plate appearances (16.7 BB%) but failed to steal a base in the series (after swiping 12 in 14 attempts during the regular season) and only scored a single run. All told, Harper’s .600 OPS against the Dodgers was simply not enough to push the Phillies over the top in a matchup that was far closer than Los Angeles’ 3-1 advantage suggested.
Needless to say, the response among Philly fans, Redditors, and Twitterati ranged from condescension to outrage. Just a quick scan across social media was revealing: “We need to…accept that [a great player] likely isn’t who Harper is anymore,” one commentator advised. “He’s getting old. He’s going to be 33 next year and in his 15th season of baseball. He has a ton of mileage on him. He’s had a lot of injuries as well.” Another saw the problem as more psychological: “Bryce needs to adjust his expectations. He goes up there hacking for the fences.” The ultimate insult soon followed: “2020 Carson Wentz cough cough. Hero balling when you no longer can.”
The most troubling thing in Harper’s case, however, is that his postseason struggles came on the heels of an ostensibly subpar season. Harper hasn’t hit .300 since 2021, but in 2025, his batting average cashed out at a mere .261, almost 20 points below his career average. Moreover, Harper’s OPS (.844) waned for the second straight season, driven by a near-career-low OBP (.357). It wasn’t just ratios either. 2025 Harper had fewer runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBIs, walks, and total bases than 2024 Harper. Indeed, it is fair to wonder if his various stints on the injured list, including a 2022 Tommy John surgery that saw him miss the first month of the 2023 season and a bout with wrist inflammation in June 2025, are beginning to catch up to him. And yet, with the Phillies unable to win a World Series after four straight playoff appearances, no one in Philadelphia is feeling sorry for Harper — a point attested by the cascade of boos that Harper received at Citizens Bank Park during the Phillies 4-3 loss to the Dodgers in Game 2. To his credit, Harper didn’t shy away from the disparagement: “(The fans) show up for us every day. They spend their hard-earned dollars to come watch us play; they expect greatness out of us, and I expect greatness out of myself and my teammates as well.”
But can Harper be great again? After all, he will turn 34 years old in 2026, and only 11 players in MLB history have won an MVP after turning 35, starting with New York Yankees right-handed pitcher Spud Chandler in 1943 and ending (for now anyway) with St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in 2022. The odds, then, are already stacked against Harper, and perhaps Phillies fans are right to worry about Harper’s expectations of “greatness.” In last year’s NLDS, goodness would have been good enough.
Well, as is the case with all players, there will come a day when Harper’s decline will be certain. But a closer look at Harper’s 2025 season reveals a player who was more unlucky than fading. Harper’s .292 BABIP was his lowest in a full season since 2018, despite the fact that his average exit velocity (91.3 mph) actually increased from 2024. Perhaps a slightly diminished launch angle (11.6 degrees) contributed to this problem, but the underlying data suggests otherwise. Harper’s xBA was 13 points higher in 2025 than in 2024, and xSLG (.512) showed an even greater jump from where it was the year before (.474). In fact, Harper’s xwOBA (.379) was among the best in baseball, ahead of burgeoning superstars Bobby Witt Jr. (.377) and James Wood (.368) and just a few points behind 2025 breakout performers Cal Raleigh (.384) and Nick Kurtz (.382). These numbers already indicate that Harper’s quality of contact was extremely high in 2025, but other metrics are even more convincing. Harper’s 2025 HardHit% was almost 2 points higher than his career average, even as his strikeout rate was his lowest since 2022. If there is a problematic number, it’s probably Harper’s 12.1% walk rate. This represents a significant downtick from his NL MVP year of 2021 (16.7%), but it’s still higher than his 2022 (10.8%) and 2024 (12.0%) walk rates.
In short, Harper remains one of the best hitters in baseball, one who is capable of putting up MVP numbers for the foreseeable future. The supposition that he is in decline is as off-base as Kerkering’s ill-starred toss over J.T. Realmuto’s head. Fantasy owners would be wise to target Harper in the early rounds of 2026 drafts, particularly since he will continue to hit in the same lineup as elite fantasy players Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner. So don’t buy the hype; don’t sweat Harper’s oddball (but amusing) TikTok videos. Harper may wear a T-shirt that says “Not Elite,” but the reality is that he still is.
