Happy August, everybody. I have to say it’s strange putting the “08” in the title of this post, as the season feels like it’s breezed by. I remember when players like Joey Wiemer were being covered in this article. Oh, how time flies. This week we have three really interesting players who have been on fire, especially as of late. It’s always interesting to see this late-season push for many players, as their teams are often fighting for positions in the postseason. The All-Star break also can really change the fortunes of many players, as some fall off entirely following it while others set out to prove they should’ve made the team. With all that said, here are three players who have stuffed the stat sheet in early August.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B, OF, BOS
So far, so good in the second half for Ceddanne Rafaela. In fact, I’d say it’s been a lot more than good.
The reason I highlight the second half is that Rafaela’s season derailed after the All-Star break in 2025. He had a 115 wRC+ in the first half of the season, and then a putrid 59 in the second half. Many were wondering if this would happen again, but so far it’s been the opposite. Rafaela has been a monster post-ASB. He has a slash line of .316/.333/.658 since the Midsummer Classic and is tied with Drake Baldwin for the 12th-best wRC+ in that span. It’s great to see this production, and it’s really contributing to a Red Sox squad that looks simply unstoppable. This all adds up to what looks to be a career year, as he’s one home run away from tying his previous high (16), and if the season ended today, it would be his first campaign with an above-average wRC+.
However, some people may question this hot streak, as it does have all the makings of a bit of a fluke. He has the highest gap between his wOBA and xWOBA among qualified hitters, which does raise some red flags. However, this also can be written off, with Rafaela using his speed to run out plays and his pulled flyball profile to outperform his expected home runs. Still, this falls apart a little bit when you look at his plate discipline. It’s not good, and it’s going to limit his ability to perform like this consistently. He’s walked once since the All-Star break, which, between that and a single hit by pitch, you can see why despite an excellent batting average post-break, his on-base percentage is only .333.
Ceddanne Rafaela’s Process+ visualized
Verdict: Probably Not Legit. I really like Rafaela, and he definitely isn’t the 59 wRC+ player of last season’s second half. He’s a solid contributor between his decent contact skills and solid power. However, his discipline hasn’t looked great during his hot streak, or really at any time this season. This is his ceiling with his current decision-making, and it’s great to see him excelling for the Red Sox, but be wary that it could fall apart quickly.
Gavin Williams, SP, CLE
Has Gavin Williams officially ascended into ace-dom? It’s certainly looking like it. He’s had five straight outings of double-digit strikeouts,
The engine for Williams has always been his four-seam fastball. It has one of the highest whiff rates of any starter’s heater, as it combines great velocity with 7 feet of extension. It’s basically the same pitch as last season, though he’s learned to lean on it a lot less. When he first came into the Major Leagues, he threw it 55% of the time. In his second season, that number was 51%. Now, he throws it 25% of the time, making it not even his most thrown pitch. His sweeper has taken over in that regard, and it’s nasty. He has a 23% swinging strike rate on it, which is one of the best marks of any sweeper in the Majors. He also throws a nasty curveball with a ton of drop for strikes, as well as an excellent sinker that grades out as one of the better ones amongst starters. There’s also a cutter in there that he occasionally breaks out against lefties. He definitely could use the pitch even more, as it has a lot of potential. It’s a complete arsenal for Williams, and it’s powering this mid-season breakout that has seen him climb from a volatile arm to a steady strikeout-earning rock in rotations.
One of the concerns with Williams in the past has been control. He had a nearly 12% walk rate last season, which has miraculously fallen to 7.1%. This can be attributed to the aforementioned improvement of his secondaries. Last season, when he threw a breaking ball, it felt like he had no idea where it was going to end up. The strike rates on both the sweeper and the curve have risen drastically, with the curve seeing a strike rate hike of fourteen percentage points.
Gavin Williams’s PLV arsenal analysis
Verdict: Legit. Williams is a new man. He’s been able to maintain his biggest strengths as a pitcher, particularly his fastball dominance, while also tinkering with the rest of his arsenal to become a well-rounded ace.
Trea Turner, SS, PHI
Trea Turner was actually covered in Patience or Panic back in late May, where our amazing Andrew Krutz stated that he believed that Turner’s decline was not quite upon us. While it took a bit of time, it looks like he’s been proven right.
Turner has been on a tear and is back to looking like his All-Star self. It’s a pretty similar trajectory to Rafaela, though with a much worse first half of the season. Since the break, he’s batting .324/.363/.635, with a wRC+ of 167. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a boost in production like this from Turner, as in his first season in Philadelphia, he struggled mightily before a mid-season standing ovation led to him going on a tear to close out the year. We could be reliving this, except without all the fanfare and with a start to the season that was, albeit worse.
Turner’s expected numbers aren’t necessarily sensational, though similar to Rafaela, his incredible speed has allowed him to run out plenty of plays and turn a few groundouts into singles and singles into doubles. His hustling nature makes it so teams feel the pressure when he makes contact, and you’ll see plenty of borderline error plays that go his way because of his ability to turn on the jets. Interestingly enough, despite getting on base more since the All-Star break, he only has one stolen base in that time period, which is a bit disappointing for a player who was drafted with speed and aggression in mind. This will certainly change, though, as Turner seems good to cash in 25 steals each season, no matter how the rest of his game is panning out.
Verdict: Mostly Legit. There may be some similarities in the raw basic stats between Turner and Rafaela; however, Turner’s track record and better overall process make it seem like the good production is going to continue. He’s had a bit of a surge in gap power recently, and this could continue down the stretch. His decline is coming, for sure, and seasons like this show that there is some risk in drafting him moving forward. Things are looking up in Philadelphia right now following a major skid, and Turner is playing a major role in that.
