I had to look up what the official definition of the “Dog Days” of summer was, and it appears that we are past those. We’ve seen the hottest weather for the most part, and now we are inching closer and closer to Fall baseball. Awards races are going to come down to the wire; we will see plenty of young players get a shot to prove they are legit, and fantasy baseball, if it wasn’t serious yet, certainly is now. We all need someone to give us advice on what to do with streaking and slumping players, which is why we hope you’ll continue to tune into this series and its sister, Patience or Panic? Today I have two players who have been incredibly hot in the back half of the season thus far and will be discussing whether or not their breakouts should be taken seriously.
Caleb Durbin, 2B, 3B, BOS
At the start of the season, it looked like the Red Sox lost big time when they shipped Kyle Harrison off to Milwaukee in exchange for a package that included Caleb Durbin. Harrison looked on the verge of ace-dom, while Durbin had one of the worst starts of any hitter in Major League Baseball. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that from March to May, he was a contender for the worst player in the sport. He has turned it around since, and many are wondering: which version is legit?
Since the All-Star break, Durbin is slashing .303/.388/.416, a really impressive line when you look at the batting average and on-base percentages. That balances out to a 128 wRC+ in the second half of the season so far, which is the kind of production you ultimately want from a player filling in at second/third base for your fantasy teams, considering the lack of offensive depth at these positions. It’s interesting to see that Durbin has a low batting average on the season, as that has been his bread and butter in the past. His strikeout rate being so low may have fantasy managers viewing him the same way they would a Luis Arraez-type player, but he doesn’t have the launch angle management that the elite who compete for the batting title every season do. Still, his average probably should be better considering how many balls in play he gets, even if his expected batting average isn’t great either.
Caleb Durbin’s Process+ visualized
Verdict: Possibly legit. The estimator metrics aren’t super keen on Durbin, but his ability to put the ball into play bodes well for him at the very least performing better than he did to start the season. Process+ is similarly down on him, largely because he doesn’t have a lot of boom in the bat and he isn’t willing to take a ton of walks. He does pull the ball, though, which may allow him to be kind of in the Liam Hicks mould of a player with a lot of blue on the batted ball data metrics but is able to put up double-digit home runs. It may seem strange to say that a player with such shockingly low numbers for a multiple-month stretch is a high-floor play, but we certainly won’t be seeing ratios like those again. He’s especially valuable in leagues with a strikeout penalty.
Logan Henderson, SP, MIL
Yeah, that’s a really, really impressive group to be in the same company with. AND Logan Henderson has the lowest walk rate among the batch. He’s on the verge of becoming an ace, but what makes him so special?
A glance at Henderson’s stuff and you may not see how he can be such a potent swing-and-miss type player. His arsenal isn’t super deep, and he doesn’t throw ridiculously hard. Yet, he gets whiffs. The four-seamer doesn’t jump off the page in terms of velocity or extension, but it has quite an intriguing shape. It comes in at a VERY flat attack angle that is reminiscent of some of the other stars like Joe Ryan and Bryan Woo who have unhittable fastballs. He also has surprisingly great vertical movement on the pitch, which just adds to its unpredictability. He pairs the heater with a changeup that gets tons of whiffs as well. It’s one of the very best righty changeups, as it collects strikes at such a high rate due to its incredible movement. There is more horizontal movement on the pitch than any starter changeup, which ups its deception to ridiculously high levels. Henderson also features a cutter that has seen a huge increase in usage this season, as he throws it 19% of the time compared to the measly 8% of last season. He’s showing confidence in the pitch and a willingness to throw it to batters from both sides, and it’s allowed him to become even more formidable. There’s also a sweeper in there that he’s played around with here and there, though mostly to poor results.
One question many may have about Henderson is innings pitched. He’s only pitched 6+ innings this season and hasn’t thrown 100 pitches. This is partially just the Brewers being the Brewers, as they have been known to limit their high-potential starters and probably should due to being all-in on a postseason run. Still, they’ve given him a longer leash lately and let him pitch into the seventh in his last start. You’re going to get 5 excellent innings from him often and that’s not a bad thing to get, especially with an increasing likelihood there will be more.
Logan Henderson’s PLV arsenal analysis
Verdict: Legit. I think we’ve seen enough to say that Henderson is really close to becoming a household name. Yeah, we want to see more innings pitched, but the team is becoming more comfortable giving them to him. He’s just become undeniable at this point, and every fantasy manager is holding on to him for dear life and starting him against even the toughest opponents.
