We are a little over a week from the conclusion of the MLB Draft. Signing bonuses are starting to become public, and prospects are getting assigned to their minor league affiliates. It is an exciting time because Dynasty owners and MLB fans are officially interested in learning more about top draft prospects. While it is easy to know about the Travis Bazzanas, Chase Burns, and Charlie Condons of the world, what about some sleeper prospects to keep an eye on? Let’s take a deep dive on some names outside the top 50 draft picks worth recognition.
FYPD Sleeper Picks
First year player drafts are all about finding value. Whether you are in a position to take one of the top prospects in the class, or looking to add a waiver pick up immediately after the draft, value is the goal. So, let’s take a deep dive on some names that may be able to bring you that value in your upcoming FYPD.
Payton Tolle, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Tolle was one of the best 2-way players in all of college baseball. He showcased legit tools on both sides of the ball, but his calling card at the next level is going to be on the mound. He pitched to an impressive 3.21 ERA with 125 strikeouts in 81.1 IP in his lone season at TCU. From his massive 6 foot 6, 250 lb frame, his best offering is his fastball, but ultimately not in the way you would think from a pitcher of his size. Tolle’s fastball only averaged 91.4 mph this season, flashing up to 96 mph. Those numbers are not elite in the velo department, but his FB does some other things that make it unique, which led to a great 30.4% whiff rate on the pitch.
First, Tolle has great extension. He releases the baseball 7.26 ft closer to the plate on average which allows it to play above the 91-93 mph he sits. He is such an imposing figure on the mound that he makes hitters uncomfortable. Due to his extension and low 3/4 release height, he creates an uncomfortable VAA with a -4.85. Both those factors allow him to attack hitters up in the zone. The pitch has 17.0 inches of IVB, which is above-average vertical movement (although not elite). Where the movement profile becomes impressive is the vertical movement with above-average horizontal movement as well (-10.1 in). All of those are the traits of a FB that will be effective at the next level.
Tolle was a split camp guy. Analytically driven organizations valued him higher, but the more traditional scouts didn’t see it. I would bet the Red Sox are ecstatic to have his profile at 50th overall. Combine the impressive FB shape with an above-average SL and a CB that generated a 50% whiff rate on the season, and the pieces are there for a big-league arm. The TCU program made some small adjustments that helped elevate Tolle as a prospect, and the Red Sox will be able to build off that.
Dakota Jordan, OF, San Francisco Giants
If you come into the draft ranked in the top 50, but fall all the way to 116, does that still make you a sleeper pick? Probably not, but in a couple of years we will only remember where Dakota Jordan was drafted, not ranked. I mocked Jordan to the Yankees in the 1st round. It felt like a semi-reach to me, but Jordan was on the fringe of 1st round consideration. Somehow he fell all the way to the Giants in the 4th round at 116th overall. We can talk about the signing bonus implications, how Jordan being a draft-eligible Sophomore gave him leverage, and how the Giants will most likely be paying closer to 1st round money for him, but still 116th overall for this talent makes him a sleeper.
Jordan has his flaws as a hitter. Similar to Vance Honeycutt, he has a combination of a swing-and-miss problem with a chase problem. He only made contact with 65.0% of the pitches he swung at while chasing at a 28.7% rate. Both are below average when trying to evaluate the pro potential of a hitter. But Jordan does things well that not many hitters can do; namely, he hits the ball hard. Really hard.
Jordan averaged 96.1 mph exit velocity on the season. 62.5% of the balls he made contact with were above 95 mph. Impressive stuff from a special athlete. Where Jordan can improve, outside of the approach concerns, is he hits too many balls on the ground. With those loud exit velocity numbers he “only” hit 20 home runs and 14 doubles due mostly in part to a 47.5% groundball rate and a 7.0 degree avg launch angle. With how young he is, and how special of an athlete he is, it is easy to see him start elevating the baseball and becoming one of the most feared power hitters in the game. A hitter of that potential falling to 116 is definitely a sleeper worth watching.
Khal Stephen, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Khal Stephen has been my favorite sleeper prospect for a couple of months now. When doing the research for evaluating pitchers in today’s home run-heavy college baseball environment, Stephen really stood out to me as a guy we were not talking about enough. The Purdue transfer was impressive in his only SEC season, pitching to a 3.28 ERA with 107 strikeouts in 96 IP. Good numbers, but not video game level like some of the top arms in the country showcased. However, what impressed me the most was how productive he was while giving up home runs at an above-average rate.
While you might be saying to yourself, “You like a prospect because of how many home runs he gave up?” Yes, I do. Home runs in college baseball are at an all-time high rate. In my opinion, you can assume as these arms get to the next level facing competition that is using wood bats, they will give up fewer home runs. The Yankees’ whole draft strategy seemed to be centered around this idea of identifying guys who have elite stuff but got abused by the balloon ball in college baseball. They will not be facing hitters with metal bats and juiced baseballs on fields meant to put butts in the seats, which has created a crazy offensive environment.
Stephen on the season gave up 1.23 home runs per 9, and still pitched to a 3.28 ERA in the most talented conference in the country. On top of that, he struck out 28.0% of the hitters he faced while showing plus command, only walking 5.0% of hitters. Take the above-average stuff with plus command, and the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark, and the idea of Stephen being an MLB starter becomes more realistic. If the stuff can tick up a little more, it makes him even more intriguing of a prospect.
Michael Massey, RHP, Detroit Tigers
I have been on record saying Michael Massey is the closest thing to Spencer Strider in recent memory. Similar to Strider in college, Massey bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen showing elite stuff in flashes. Massey was supposed to skyrocket up draft rankings as a full-time starter during the 2024 season after a historic year out of the bullpen in 2023. Instead, he dealt with injuries and inconsistencies that led to more questions than answers about what Massey would be as a full-time starter. I am choosing to see the 2023 version of Massey as the one he will be moving forward, not the 2024 version.
During the 2023 season, Massey pitched to a 2.59 ERA with 76 strikeouts and 16 walks in 41.2 IP. He struck out 47.5% of the batters he faced, while only walking 9.4%. He showcased both elite dominant stuff while being relentless in the strike zone. He was struck a little by the home run bug in 2023, but who wasn’t? Massey finished the season with one of the more dominant relief outings I have ever seen in college baseball against the eventual national champs, LSU.
The stuff during the 2023 season was the most impressive part of his game. He has 2 70 grade offerings with both flashing 80 potential on certain days. The FB sits between 94-96 flashing up to 97 mph. It had a 41.2% whiff rate on the 2023 season and generated elite IVB with 20.2 inches of vertical movement combined with above-average extension (6.92 ft) and a low release height. His VAA is -4.53, which is well above average. Those traits give him a potential dominant FB at the next level. The SL is his best pitch. During the 2023 season, it generated a 51.4% whiff rate. It is a true out pitch and is a major part of the reason why he struck out 47.5% of the batters he faced in 2023. 2024 was a down year for Massey, but the Tigers got a potential stud at 114 overall.
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
Peyton Stovall had some 1st round helium leading up to the 2021 MLB draft. MLB.com had him ranked 29th leading up to the draft, but Stovall decided to go to Arkansas instead of signing a pro contract. At the time following the 2021 draft, many felt Stovall could find himself in the top 10 during the 2024 draft after 3 years of development. Well, progress is almost never linear, and the trajectory for Stovall was not what I am sure he envisioned when going to Arkansas.
Stovall played right away upon getting on campus but was nothing more than a contact first hitter. During his Sophomore season, he struggled to get his footing ultimately ending his season with an injury that pushed the start of this season back. The 2024 season was the first time Stovall flashed the potential that many thought would happen. He hit .340 on the season with 9 home runs and 12 doubles in 48 games. Not exactly a world-beater, but productive. The data is what impresses me about Stovall’s profile the most.
Stovall averaged a 90.8 mph exit velocity. Not the most impressive number, but 51.9% of the balls he made contact with were over 95 mph. He also showcased a 108.6 mph exit velocity on a home run off 15th overall pick Jurrangelo Cijntje. At the end of the season, Stovall finally started to look like the hitter many were enamored with. He featured an 80.6% contact rate on the season, and assuming the strength continues to progress back from his injuries, his best baseball is ahead of him. Combine plus bat-to-ball skills and add power, the prospect profile is impressive. I think we are more likely to see the best version of Stovall in pro ball.
Grant Knipp, C, Seattle Mariners
Grant Knipp was in the process of putting up a historic season before an injury limited him to just 29 games on the season. In those 29 games, the damage was unreal. He hit 18 home runs while batting .402. Knipp was toe to toe with Condon and Caglianone for the home run race in college baseball. It would have been fascinating to see how the season would have finished if Knipp would have stayed healthy. The Mariners decided to pop Knipp in the 6th round (as a 2-way player, more on that later) and he has the tools to make an impact at the next level.
Knipp showcased an impressive batted ball profile, averaging 96.8 mph exit velocity with a 44.9% barrel rate. That is consistently crushing the ball. There are some concerns about the approach as he had just a 68.3% contact rate while chasing at 26.9% of pitches out of the zone. Those are concerning, but his peripherals are similar to the aforementioned Dakota Jordan. Defensively it isn’t the most impressive operation, but his best skill is his bat. If he hits at the next level, he could be productive at 1st base as well.
What makes Knipp even more intriguing is the fact that he was taken as a 2-way player. In his first season on the mound, he only pitched 5.2 IP but struck out 6 batters and only walked 1. The FB flashed up to 98 mph and averaged 94.6 mph. I do not think his future will be on the mound, but Knipp will have an option if the bat or defense does not translate at the next level. He showcases enough tools on both sides of the ball to play his best ball at the next level.
Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)