I went back and forth on something all weekend, and still, as I’m writing this today, there’s a looming question that won’t leave my mind. Which division is worse between the AL Central and AL West? I mentioned in Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview that it’s going to be difficult putting any head-to-head AL Central matchups in the top five until at least one of those teams is above .500 by two or more games. After Cleveland dropped two of three contests at home versus the Twins over the weekend, they are back to .500 with a 21-21 record. That’s good enough for first place in the AL Central.
So, how bad is this division? Is it the worst in MLB? I’m not so sure. Let’s look at the AL West for a moment. The Athletics lead that division with a 21-19 record after winning a weekend series over the visiting Orioles. Every other squad is at least two games under .500. Between the AL Central and AL West, only the A’s are above .500. That’s not to say that the AL East is lighting it up either. Other than the top two records in the American League coming from this division, thanks to the Rays (26-13) and Yankees (26-15), the other three clubs are well under .500. The bottom line is that only three teams in the American League have a winning record.
The AL East is the best of the three divisions. I don’t think anyone can make a legitimate argument against that, considering how well the top two franchises are playing. Both the AL Central and AL West have one team apiece with a positive run differential, and neither is in first place. The 19-22 Tigers have a +4 run differential, while the 19-22 Mariners have a +1 in that category. Yikes! Therefore, in my mind, the only fair way to evaluate which division is stronger between the Central and West is to look at their head-to-head record. At this moment, the AL Central is 23-14 versus the AL West. If there’s a better way to break a tie between these two pitiful divisions, let me know. Right now, I’m placing the AL West as the weakest division in baseball.
With all that in mind, this week’s top five list features two National League matchups, two American League battles, and one interleague series coming in at No. 5. You’ll notice a few notable division rivalries that didn’t make the cut. The Yankees and Orioles will meet for three games in Baltimore. But after New York was swept in Milwaukee and the O’s lost their series at home to the A’s, I’m keeping this matchup off the list, especially considering that the home team is nine games out of first place. For this reason, I’m also keeping one of the oldest rivalries off the list as well. The Giants travel to Los Angeles for a four-game series against the Dodgers. These teams are a combined 7-13 over their last 10 games, and San Francisco, with a record of 16-24, is eight games behind the division-leading Dodgers and Padres, both at 24-16. This would usually be a worthy top-five series at any point in the season, but not this week.
Speaking of the top five, let’s get to it, beginning with the obvious No. 1 series between the National League’s two best squads by record.
No. 1: Cubs (27-14) at Atlanta (28-13)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
The Cubs second 10-game winning streak came to an end on Saturday with a 6-0 loss at Texas. They were shut out again in Sunday’s rubber game, 3-0. Zero runs in their last two games for the third-highest scoring team in MLB might be a bit alarming. However, let’s remember that on Sunday, they faced Jacob deGrom for seven innings. The two-time Cy Young winner struck out 10 and allowed only three hits. There’s no shame in losing to him.
Now the Cubs travel to Atlanta, which is coming off an impressive road series win over the Dodgers. I said in last week’s MLB Weekend Series Preview that Atlanta had a pitching advantage in that series, but I didn’t think that it would be Chris Sale taking the only loss for the road team in Friday’s 3-1 defeat. Overall, the starting pitching was excellent, and if anyone is questioning whether Atlanta’s offense could withstand the absence of its star right fielder, Ronald Acuña Jr., I think they’ve answered that. Since Acuna landed on the IL with a left hamstring injury on May 3, the team is averaging 4.8 runs per game, including scoring 14 times combined in wins against the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday.
Back to this series in Atlanta beginning on Tuesday. Both clubs rank in the top five in batting average, OBP, OPS, and runs scored. That’s just the offense. On the pitching front, Atlanta has the NL’s best team ERA at 3.14, while Chicago’s ranks fifth at 3.81.
There’s very little reason to keep this series out of the No. 1 spot. If the playoffs started today, these would be the top two seeds in the National League. They’ll meet again at Wrigley Field in mid-September.
No. 2: Padres (24-16) at Brewers (22-16)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I’m not sure if anyone reading this could keep a straight face while trying to explain to me how the San Diego Padres are 24-16 and tied with the Dodgers atop the NL West. Simply put, the stats don’t add up. The Friars have a +3 run differential compared to the Blue Crew’s +69. The offensive comparison is night and day. San Diego ranks 13th in the National League in batting average (.223) and OBP (.297), 12th in slugging percentage (.370), and is 10th in runs scored with 170 through 40 games played. The Dodgers rank in the top five in each of those categories. Los Angeles also owns them in just about every pitching category as well, including reliever ERA, despite the Padres having the most dominant closer we’ve seen in quite some time. That would be MLB saves leader, Mason Miller (18 ⅔ IP, 12 saves, 0.96 ERA, 38 K).
Regardless of the statistical anomalies, the Padres enter this week tied for the third-best record in the National League with the team they’ll face in Milwaukee at just one game behind them in the standings. After Brice Turang’s walk-off homer on Sunday to complete the home sweep of the Yankees, Milwaukee’s winning streak jumped to four games, and they trail Chicago by 3 ½ games in the NL Central (still the only division with all teams above .500).
I’m looking at Wednesday’s pitching matchup between San Diego’s Michael King (8 GS, 3-2, 2.76 ERA) and Milwaukee’s ace Jacob Misiorowski (8 GS, 3-2, 2.45 ERA). Both pitchers have identical records and similar ERAs. After ‘The Miz” struck out 11 Yankees on Saturday, he took over the MLB strikeout lead with 70. If you told me I could have free tickets to watch only one pitching duel between Monday and Thursday, I would choose this game without thinking twice.
No. 3: Rays (26-13) at Blue Jays (18-22)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Some of you might be wondering how I can leave the Yankees and Orioles out of the top five, while including another AL East series between teams with nearly identical records. Honestly, it’s only because Tampa Bay won their series over the weekend versus the Red Sox, and New York lost all three in Milwaukee. The Rays are alone atop the AL East, and will be playing a Blue Jays squad that they just swept in Tampa Bay last week. The same could be said for the Yankees after they swept the Orioles in four games to begin this month. Both series are important. But only one intrigues me this week.
Let’s talk about those Blue Jays. After being swept in Tampa Bay less than a week ago, Toronto was able to win two of three contests at home versus the struggling Angels. This is a massive series for the defending AL champs. If they lose this, they’ll be at least 9 ½ games behind the Rays. However, if Toronto sweeps this series, they’ll suddenly be within striking distance of Tampa Bay at “only” 5 ½ games back. That’s a huge difference, and it feels like anything less than a 2-1 series win by the home team will make it extremely difficult going forward in this division.
Both clubs will be sending out their top arms in this series, beginning on Monday, with a dandy of a pitching matchup between Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen (7 GS, 2-1, 2.95 ERA) and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (8 GS, 2-2, 3.09 ERA).
No. 4: Mariners (19-22) at Astros (16-25)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Scold me. I understand if you do, but I don’t care. After all, I spent most of the lead talking about how pathetic the AL West has been up to this point. The Mariners and Astros are no exception. Both franchises had reasonably high expectations this year, especially Seattle, which some believe to be a World Series contender. At 19-22, they still have a shot, obviously. Even the 16-25 last-place Astros are only 5 ½ games behind the A’s for the division’s top spot. I’ll be honest: there was hesitation about putting this series in the top five. Based on how these teams are playing, neither probably deserves to be on the list, let alone at No. 4.
My reasoning is more about the relevance of this four-game series. I still believe that the Mariners will find a way to win this division. At 2 ½ games back, and three games under .500, it’s comical to think that if the playoffs started today, Seattle would only be a half-game behind Texas and Chicago for the final AL wild card spot. The rotation is too good to ignore, and once the offense starts to click (currently ranked last in the AL with a .229 batting average), I think the M’s will be on their way to the top record in the American League West.
As for the Astros, I’m not so sure they are much better than their record indicates. Their -34 run differential is the second-worst in the American League. At 16-25, the only club with a worse record in all of baseball is the New York Mets at 15-25. What the ‘Stros need desperately is a good showing at Daikin Park. Houston has dropped three straight series at home. After Seattle, they’ll host another AL West foe, the Texas Rangers.
We know how great the Houston Astros organization has been since 2015. They’ve missed the postseason only twice in that span, including last year. If Houston loses this series and follows that up with a poor showing this weekend against Texas, then I believe it will be fair to say that this franchise will miss the playoffs for a second consecutive campaign. That is another reason why I have this series in the top five. How often do we get a chance to say the Astros’ season might be over before the calendar even hits June? Heck, how often do we say that about any team? I’m saying it. This is the biggest week of the year for the eight-time AL West champs.
No. 5: Cardinals (23-17) at Athletics (21-19)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
It felt necessary to round out the top five with the only interleague series between teams with a winning record. That’s obviously hard to find these days, with the American League having only three such teams. In my mind, that makes this series even rarer and, therefore, worthy of the fifth spot on this week’s list.
The A’s will undoubtedly be without their 24-year-old shortstop Jacob Wilson in this series after he sprained his left shoulder in the team’s 2-1 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He’s having imaging on Monday, and as of this writing, there’s no official word on the severity of the injury or how long he’ll be out. However, without having their .292 hitter in the lineup, it will be interesting to see if the Athletics can remain atop the AL West for much longer. Currently, Sacramento’s team has a two-game lead on the Rangers. Keep an eye on first baseman Nick Kurtz’s MLB-best on-base streak. He’s reached base in 34 straight games for the A’s.
St. Louis comes to Sutter Health Park after splitting a four-game series in San Diego over the weekend. The Redbirds are 3 ½ games behind Chicago in the NL Central. I’ve talked plenty this year about their breakout star, Jordan Walker, who clubbed his team-leading 11th home run on Sunday.
This isn’t the most exciting or even close to the most important series of the week. Again, I have to sometimes go with teams that are playing solid baseball and at least have a winning record. When the combination of the pairings outside of the top five does not include a single matchup between two squads with .500 or better records, then I feel there’s no better choice than an interleague matchup like this one.
Missed the Top Five
Angels (16-25) at Guardians (21-21): Three games
Yankees (26-15) at Orioles (18-23): Three games
Diamondbacks (19-20) at Rangers (19-21): Three games
Giants (16-24) at Dodgers (24-16): Four games
Nationals (19-22) at Reds (22-19): Three games
Rockies (16-25) at Pirates (22-19): Three games
Phillies (19-22) at Red Sox (17-23): Three games
Tigers (19-22) at Mets (15-25): Three games
Royals (19-22) at White Sox (19-21): Three games
Marlins (19-22) at Twins (18-23): Three games
