It was quite a week for the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays. In my last series preview on Monday, for the first time this year, only division matchups made the top five series list. Chicago swept the visiting Reds in a series that included three walk-offs and an 8-4 victory in Thursday’s finale. As Michael Hanlon noted in MLB News & Moments on Friday, the Baby Bears have won 15 straight games at Wrigley Field, and nine straight contests overall.
Elsewhere, the Rays won for the 10th straight time at Tropicana Field after completing a three-game sweep on Wednesday over their AL East rival, the Toronto Blue Jays. Tampa Bay hit the road on Thursday for the first of four games against the Red Sox, and won the opener 8-4, making it seven consecutive wins overall. There are no hotter teams in MLB right now than Chicago and Tampa Bay. How long they can keep this going is anyone’s guess, but if they keep winning, their odds of making the top five series list each week will only increase.
Rounding out the other three division series in the top five on Monday were the Brewers at Cardinals (1-1 series split thanks to Tuesday’s rainout), the Guardians at Royals (KC led the series 2-0 before Cleveland rallied to win the final two contests), and San Diego at San Francisco (the Padres won two of three matches and enter the weekend one game behind Los Angeles in the NL West).
Now you’re all caught up on how this week began. The question is, how will it finish? My top five for this weekend came down to who is playing the best. There are a couple of relevant AL Central meetings about to get underway, but until that division improves and has at least one team that is two or more games above .500, it’s hard to justify a top-five series ranking when they play in head-to-head matchups.
In my mind, the top two series this weekend are undeniable. They can’t be ignored, and I’d be a fool to keep them off the list. No. 3 and No. 5 involve the two franchises talked about at the beginning of this article. Both of them are on the road this weekend after winning a combined 25 straight contests at their home parks. At No. 4, it’s a battle between two second-place National League squads, and if the playoffs started today, they would be facing each other in the best-of-three Wild Card Series.
Enough of the buildup and drama. Let’s get to the weekend’s top five series beginning with…
No. 1: Atlanta (26-12) at Dodgers (23-14)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I’m not sure if we’re watching a preview of a potential rematch of the 2021 National League Championship Series, which saw Atlanta knock out the Dodgers in six games on their way to the franchise’s first World Series title since 1995. What I am sure of is that these are the two most dangerous NL clubs at this time. If the playoffs started today, I believe if you polled every team in the NL, Atlanta and L.A. would be at the top of the “Do not want to play” list.
Yes, the Cubs have a slightly better record than Los Angeles thanks to their current nine-game winning streak, but given the state of their starting rotation (will talk more about that later), they seem a bit vulnerable in a five or seven-game series at this time.
To this weekend. Atlanta is coming off its first series loss of the season after dropping two of three in Seattle this week. In the big picture, does it really matter? No. It was inevitable that Georgia’s team would eventually lose a series to someone. We’ll see how they rebound this weekend in Chavez Ravine, where the Dodgers are 12-6 at home. Los Angeles is coming off a six-game road trip in which they went a combined 3-3 versus St. Louis and Houston.
Keep an eye on the starting pitching matchups. I think Atlanta has the advantage. If you made me choose a series winner, I’m taking the road team based solely on the pitching.
Friday: ATL – Chris Sale (7 GS, 6-1, 2.14 ERA) versus LAD – Emmet Sheehan (6 GS, 2-1, 5.23 ERA)
Advantage Atlanta. How can I pick against Sale right now?
Saturday: ATL – Spencer Strider (1 GS, 0-0, 8.10 ERA) versus LAD – Roki Sasaki (6 GS, 1-3, 5.97 ERA)
Advantage Atlanta. Strider may not have looked great in his season debut last weekend in Colorado (3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 6 K, 5 BB). However, I have more faith in Atlanta’s right-hander finding his old groove that made him one of the most feared pitchers in MLB three years ago than I do in Sasaki finding any kind of groove after watching him through six games this season. I don’t trust Sasaki and his 1.67 WHIP at all.
Sunday: ATL – Bryce Elder (8 GS, 3-1, 2.02 ERA) versus LAD – Justin Wrobleski (6 G, 5 GS, 5-0, 1.25 ERA)
Advantage Dodgers? I added a question mark because both of these pitchers have looked fantastic up to this point. Elder has been the biggest surprise in the Atlanta rotation after a 2025 season that saw him post a 5.30 ERA across 156 ⅓ frames. I don’t think he can keep this up, but it’s impossible not to appreciate what the five-year veteran has done. As for Wrobleski, I’m always fascinated by pitchers in today’s game who pitch well despite having low strikeout rates. Is there a better starting pitcher in baseball who averages less than 5 K/9 innings? Wrobleski has a 3.75 K/9 this season after striking out only 15 batters over 36 frames. Last year, the 25-year-old averaged more than a strikeout per inning pitched (76 K in 66 ⅔ IP). We might be looking at two arms at the peak of their powers right now, which should make Sunday’s duel the best of the series.
I haven’t even talked about the offenses, but everyone should know by now that these are two of the best in MLB. An exciting series ahead, and the most worthy of the No. 1 spot this weekend.
No. 2: Yankees (26-12) at Brewers (19-16)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Two franchises with top-five earned run averages. I would never have guessed that the New York Yankees would own the top ERA in MLB (3.04 entering Friday), given that they haven’t used Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodón up to this point (both nearing returns from the IL). Now, the good news for the visiting squad is that Rodon will be making his season debut in Sunday’s series finale against Milwaukee’s Logan Henderson (2 GS, 0-1, 4.50 ERA). But before that matchup, we have two potentially fantastic pitching duels scheduled on Friday and Saturday.
On Friday, the Yanks are sending southpaw Max Fried to the bump (8 GS, 4-1, 2.39 ERA) to face Milwaukee’s ace Jacob Misiorowski (7 GS, 2-2, 2.84 ERA). “The Miz” is coming off an outing against the Nationals last week, cut short by a right hamstring cramp. It appears that Milwaukee dodged a bullet, given the current state of injuries around the league. We’ll see how long he goes against Fried, but if Misiorowski is at his best, there’s no better SP matchup this weekend than this one.
Saturday’s starters will have the American League’s ERA leader, Cam Schlittler (1.52 ERA), go up against Brewers left-hander Kyle Harrison, who has allowed only one run over his last two contests spanning 12 innings.
I’m not one who often feels sorry for any MLB franchise. However, if push came to shove and you asked me to choose the team in each league that I feel most sorry for based on who is getting the rawest deal right now, I’d probably choose these clubs. Here’s why:
The Yankees are playing fantastic baseball and are tied with Atlanta and Chicago for the best record in MLB at 26-12. Atlanta has a very comfortable eight-game lead in the NL East. Most would probably assume that New York should have at least a three-game lead in the AL East, given their record. Nope. The Rays are only a half-game back in the division, and the American League has only four teams above .500, with the two best by far playing in the AL East. That’s a raw deal for both Tampa Bay and New York.
The Brew Crew is playing well with a 19-16 record, yet they sit in fourth place in the NL Central, and 5 ½ games behind the division-leading Cubs. Every team in the division is still above .500, including Cincinnati, despite its current seven-game losing streak. That’s brutal if you’re Milwaukee, especially when you consider that no other division in MLB has more than two teams with winning records.
Whether you choose to feel sorry for either of these teams is up to you. I honestly do not. These are two well-run organizations, and this is an interleague series that all baseball fans can appreciate. Save the pity for later in the season if the Yankees and Rays blow the rest of the American League away and end up fighting to the last weekend for the division crown. Certainly feel sorry for the Brewers if they finish fourth or fifth in a division with five teams that end up having five of the best records in the National League. Until then, just enjoy what we have in front of us this weekend.
No. 3: Cubs (26-12) at Rangers (17-20)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
It’s funny. As I’m writing this, part of me wants to take back what I said about feeling the most sorry for the Yankees and Brewers. Think about this for a moment. The Cubs have won nine straight contests and are tied for the best record in MLB, but if the playoffs started today, I’m not sure they have a good enough starting pitching staff to get out of any series.
Chicago was already without the services of starters Cade Horton (TJ surgery, out for the season) and Justin Steele (60-day IL with UCL injury), and now one of their best pitchers from a year ago, Matthew Boyd, will miss at least six weeks to recover from left-knee meniscectomy surgery after injuring his left meniscus while playing with his kids this week. What the Cubbies are doing right now is phenomenal. I have to keep them in the top five while this winning streak is going, even though they are playing the 17-20 Rangers, who haven’t had a winning streak longer than two games since they swept the Mariners in early April.
The AL West is so mediocre right now that it almost seems unfair knowing Texas is only two games out of the division lead despite being three games under .500. The Rangers are 7-8 at home this season, while the Cubs, who are an amazing 18-5 at Wrigley Field, enter Friday with an 8-7 road record.
No. 4: Cardinals (22-15) at Padres (22-15)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Cardinals won Thursday’s opener, 2-1.
If it weren’t for Chicago’s incredible run right now, I would have this series at No. 3. We’re looking at the top two NL wild card teams, both of whom are in second place in their respective divisions. St. Louis took the opener on Thursday, 2-1, behind Matthew Liberatore’s six-inning quality start (W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K). What’s fascinating about the Redbirds is that they are only 10-10 at Busch Stadium, but have the fewest losses on the road in MLB. St. Louis is 12-5 away from home after Thursday’s win, and is a National League best 8-2 against clubs with winning records.
Meanwhile, San Diego still hasn’t seen Fernando Tatis Jr. come anywhere close to what he was before his PED suspension in 2022. The three-time All-Star has yet to homer in ’26, and is on pace for career lows in batting average (.252), on-base percentage (.318), and slugging percentage (.304). To put those numbers in perspective, Tatis’s career low in slugging percentage came last year (.446) in what most everyone considered a down season for the right fielder. If that’s a down season, what do you call this?
Anyway, regardless of Tatis’s struggles, the Padres are tied for the sixth-best record in baseball with their opponent this weekend.
No. 5: Rays (25-12) at Red Sox (16-22)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Rays won Thursday’s opener, 8-4.
I don’t think Tampa Bay cares one bit who they play (5-1 versus winning teams), where they play (14-4 at home, 11-8 on the road), or when they play (11-6 in day games, 14-6 in night games). This is the most pleasantly surprising team I’ve watched this season. I love how the Rays get it done. After sweeping the Blue Jays this week and outscoring their opponent 12-4 in those three wins, Tampa Bay made the reigning AL champions look small. It was as if Toronto didn’t belong in the same league as one of MLB’s lowest payrolled franchises. That’s how well the Rays are playing.
Most pundits predicted Tampa Bay to finish in last place behind four teams that, on paper, looked stronger overall at the start of ’26. That includes their opponent this weekend, the Boston Red Sox. Everyone is still kind of waiting to see if the Sox have any kind of turnaround in them. They did sweep the struggling Tigers on the road earlier in the week, but after yielding eight runs in the opener of this series on Thursday, I think it’s very clear that without a healthy Garrett Crochet in the rotation (15-day IL with shoulder inflammation), this team is going to struggle against the talented offenses in this division. Boston ranks fourth in the AL East with a 4.61 starter ERA.
Given that Tampa Bay is on a seven-game winning streak and this is a division series, I feel it is worthy of a top-five selection. There’s not one series outside of the top five listed below that pairs two teams with .500 or better records.
Missed the Top Five
Astros (15-23) at Reds (20-18): Three games
Rockies (15-23) at Phillies (17-21): Three games
A’s (19-18) at Orioles (17-21): Three games
Angels (15-23) at Blue Jays (16-21): Three games
Nationals (18-20) at Marlins (17-21): Three games
Twins (16-22) at Guardians (20-19): Three games
Tigers (18-20) at Royals (17-21): Three games
Mariners (18-20) at White Sox (17-20): Three games
Mets (14-23) at Diamondbacks (17-19): Three games
Pirates (21-17) at Giants (14-23): Three games
