Let’s just call it what it will be one day from the time of this article’s release: The start of September baseball. With one day remaining in August and exactly four weeks (28 days) left in the regular season, we are officially in playoff race mode. The next two months are, inarguably, the most exciting time of the MLB season.
Speaking of inarguable, I don’t think there’s an argument to be made against this week’s top-five series list. Maybe someone could convince me to replace the No. 5 matchup with one of the 10 series missing from the big list. However, unless you’re convinced that a series like Seattle at Boston or, maybe, Detroit at Minnesota is top-five worthy, then you’ll have a difficult time changing my mind.
Seattle was just swept by Toronto, and at five games out of both the AL West and AL wild card race, I’m not seeing anything to get excited about right now. Detroit and Minnesota shouldn’t even be in any race, considering they are a combined 17 games under .500 and have a 5-15 record over their last 20 games. Yes, technically, both franchises are still in the AL wild card picture (Twins are four games out; Tigers are 5 ½ back), but watching these two wannabes battle in a three-game set is not my idea of fun, and certainly the winner of that series won’t be much closer to a playoff spot considering that a few other squads are ahead in the standings. Everything has to go right for those two middling AL Central teams.
Let’s stop discussing the matchups that didn’t qualify for the top five and get right to the big stuff. Here’s this week’s list.
No. 1: Brewers (85-52) at Cubs (77-60)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
This should be obvious, and at first glance it is the no-doubt No. 1 matchup of the week given that these two clubs have the best combined records of any other series by a lot. It’s a division battle between the NL Central’s top teams, and a series that will see the likely 2026 NL Cy Young winner (Jacob Misiorowski) battle the one who, I believe, should be the runaway 2026 NL MVP (Pete Crow-Armstrong).
At second glance, I nearly dropped this four-game series out of the top spot given where both clubs stand in the division race. Unless the Cubs sweep this series, I don’t see a division title in their future. At eight games back with 25 contests remaining, Chicago is not going to catch the Brew Crew. Sure, sweep this series, and win two out of three in next week’s final set at Milwaukee, and, okay, you’ll have my attention. But does anyone see that coming?
Anyway, I still placed this matchup at the top for a couple of reasons. First, given that Milwaukee’s MLB-best record is only 2 ½ games better than Tampa Bay and three games ahead of Los Angeles and Atlanta, they are still fighting for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and could miss out on a bye to the League Division Series if the NL West and NL East leaders pass them in the standings. Second, Chicago is no longer ahead of Philadelphia for the top wild-card spot. Both clubs are 77-60, and fortunately for the Cubs, if they end up tied with the Phillies for the NL’s No. 4 seed, they will have home-field advantage against them if they meet in the NLWC, thanks to a 6-1 head-to-head record.
Regardless of Milwaukee’s eight-game advantage over Chicago, this will be an intense week-plus between these rivals. Seven meetings over the next nine days will create that intensity. The Brewers have a 4-2 record versus the North Siders this season.
Expected pitching matchups:
Monday: MIL – Kyle Harrison (21 GS, 10-3, 2.79 ERA) versus CHC – Clay Holmes (13 GS, 5-6, 2.26 ERA)
Tuesday: MIL – Robert Gasser (16 G, 15 GS, 4-5, 4.59 ERA) versus CHC – Matthew Boyd (17 GS, 8-3, 3.99 ERA)
Wednesday: MIL – Jacob Misiorowski (25 GS, 14-5, 1.73 ERA) versus CHC – David Peterson (27 G, 18 GS, 7-7, 5.11 ERA)
Thursday: MIL – Logan Henderson (14 GS, 9-2, 2.48 ERA) versus CHC- Kevin Gausman (28 GS, 8-11, 4.52 ERA)
No. 2: White Sox (72-64) at Astros (69-68)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Let’s go to the only other four-game series of the week, and it’s a big one between a pair of AL division leaders. I nearly put this matchup at the top considering the all-around importance of this set and every other one coming up for both clubs. Neither franchise is close to being locked into a playoff berth at the moment, unlike the Cubs and Brewers above. That alone makes the pressure on both sides in a series like this one all the more captivating.
Beginning with the home team. The Astros are 13-13 in August, and if they win Monday’s opener versus Chicago, they’ll record their fourth consecutive winning month, which is interesting when you really think about it. The AL West, as everyone knows by now, is one of the worst divisions of all time, if not the worst when it’s all said and done, depending on the final records. If the ‘Stros win on Monday, they will only be two games over .500 despite not having a losing month since April (currently 13-13 in August). Remember, they went 12-20 between March and April, and since the start of May, are nine games over .500. Not bad, not great, but good enough to lead the pitiful AL West.
Meanwhile, the White Sox are also playing for a fourth straight winning month. Just like the Astros, the South Siders haven’t had a losing month since April, and at 14-13 in August, they’ll look to keep that monthly winning streak going with a victory on Monday. As far as the AL Central race, the White Sox extended their lead over Cleveland to 3 ½ games after taking two of three contests versus Minnesota over the weekend. The Guardians dropped their three-game series to Kansas City, 2-1.
In late July, Houston won two of three meetings versus the White Sox at Rate Field. Something to keep in mind, as we are on the NL side, is the race for the top two American League seeds. Let’s not kid ourselves. Whoever wins the AL East, which right now is Tampa Bay’s to lose (up 4 ½ games on New York in the division), will be the No. 1 seed in the American League. Tampa Bay has a 10-game lead over the White Sox for that top seed. That means the No. 2 seed and the second bye to the ALDS is still up for grabs. Right now, Chicago is by 3 ½ games ahead of Houston for that position.
Monday’s opener will pair White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay (27 G, 25 GS, 9-6, 4.09 ERA) and Astros right-hander Peter Lambert (23 GS, 8-7, 3.66 ERA).
No. 3: Phillies (77-60) at Diamondbacks (73-65)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
We have a new wild-card holder in the National League. Arizona snagged the final NL playoff spot from San Diego after the Padres were swept at Tampa Bay, a series that saw the road team blow two late leads on Saturday and Sunday. The D-backs split their four-game series in San Francisco and have a half-game advantage over the Padres entering Monday.
Arizona welcomes Philadelphia to the desert for three pivotal contests between current wild-card teams. The Phillies swept the Angels on the road over the weekend and, as mentioned earlier, are tied with the Cubs for the top NL WC spot. Right now, Philadelphia and Chicago appear to be on a collision course for an NLWC bout. That’s assuming that Arizona and San Diego, at 4 ½ and five games behind, respectively, won’t catch either club in the standings. However, this is Major League Baseball, and we’d be silly to think that those deficits are insurmountable with a full month to go in the regular season. With that said, this matchup between two of the National League’s best should go a long way in determining whether Arizona has a shot at the top wild-card position.
I have my eyes on Ketel Marte’s expected return to the Snakes lineup on Monday. He’s been out since August 16 with a knee injury and for personal reasons. It seems unlikely that Arizona can go far without their second baseman. Also, keep an eye on Tuesday’s southpaw duel between Philadelphia’s Jesús Luzardo (32 GS, 12-5, 3.09 ERA) and Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez (27 GS, 14-4, 2.50 ERA). They have completely different styles on the mound and are two of MLB’s most efficient pitchers. Both are coming off scoreless seven-inning wins in their prior starts.
This is an entertaining and highly relevant series, and you could probably convince me that it deserves a higher ranking on this week’s list. Although, given that the top two series of the week are four-gamers, I like having this match at No. 3. In their only other get-together this season, the Diamondbacks won two of three contests at Philadelphia in April.
No. 4: Blue Jays (68-70) at Guardians (69-68)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
This is definitely not worthy of a top-three spot given the combined records of these clubs compared to those above. However, both teams are probably playing their best baseball of the season right now, and given that this series affects every other AL wild-card hopeful, I like it right here at No. 4.
Cleveland is 8-2 over its last 10 contests, and even though they dropped a weekend series with the last-place Royals, the Guards still hold a slim one-game lead over Baltimore for the final AL wild-card spot, with Toronto 1 ½ games behind. Following this series, Cleveland faces a slew of other wild-card contenders (4 vs. Tigers, 3 at Orioles, 3 at Twins). It was good to see José Ramírez find his power stroke on Sunday (1 HR, 4 RBI). In a similar fashion to a player I’m going to talk about later, Ramírez’s ability to hit for Cleveland over the next four weeks after what has been a down season for the third baseman (.243/.339/.393 slash line) is crucial to this team’s playoff hopes.
The Blue Jays are 17-11 in August, and after watching Max Scherzer in vintage form on Sunday versus the Mariners (W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 10 K, 97 pitches), it gives me at least a sense that Toronto’s pitching can hold up for the most part in September and keep the Jays in games, on the risky assumption the offense does its part. Toronto is MLB’s second-lowest-scoring club, and as I’ve mentioned before, I don’t see how they go far without the “real” Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doing his thing in September. He still hasn’t gone yard at home in ’26, and has just one dinger this month, and seven total in 123 games played this season. If he were posting numbers anywhere close to 2025, I think Toronto would be comfortably ahead of the pack for the third WC spot. His normal year-to-year value is undeniable, but this power slump is one of the stranger things I’ve seen recently.
I’m looking for Ramirez and Guerrero to get going down the final stretch of ’26. If neither finds their old form, I won’t be surprised if both clubs miss the playoffs. Big series ahead.
No. 5: Cardinals (68-70) at Dodgers (82-55)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Three questions I have to ask myself about the Redbirds down the stretch.
- Do I believe in the Cardinals when healthy? No, I do not.
- Do I think they have a chance at a playoff run without NL Rookie of the Year candidate, JJ Wetherholt (10-day IL with right wrist tendinitis)? Probably not.
- Can I count the Cardinals out of the playoff race at five games back with 24 games remaining? No, I cannot.
Here’s the thing about St. Louis. Very few had high expectations for them this season, and their 68-70 record is right around where most pundits believed they’d be. They aren’t underachieving, but they certainly aren’t overachieving either. Heck, they’d only be 1 ½ games out of the AL wild card if they played in the Junior Circuit. But they don’t, so I’m not going any further with that today.
What I will say in the Cardinals’ favor is that if they can hang with Los Angeles and maybe take this road series, then at the very least, they’ll have a puncher’s chance to creep back into the NL wild-card fray given their relatively soft upcoming schedule. Following this series, St. Louis plays three games apiece at Colorado and San Francisco (the NL’s two worst clubs). They return home for a nine-game homestand versus the White Sox, Giants, and the struggling Nationals. That’s a favorable start to September for a team trailing Arizona by five games for the last NL wild card berth.
The Cardinals take on a Dodgers team that ended August with its first losing month of the campaign (13-14 record). If there’s ever a time to take advantage of the two-time defending World Series champs, this is probably it. With a 9 ½ game cushion in the NL West, the Dodgers have nothing to worry about there. The only thing the Blue Crew is playing for right now is home-field advantage and a bye to the NLDS.
Missed the Top Five
Padres (72-65) at Reds (65-72): Three games
Mets (61-76) at Rays (82-54): Three games
Mariners (64-73) at Red Sox (74-63): Three games
Tigers (63-73) at Twins (65-72): Three games
A’s (53-84) at Rangers (67-70): Three games
Orioles (68-69) at Rockies (52-85): Three games
Yankees (78-59) at Angels (52-85): Three games
Giants (56-81) at Pirates (67-71): Three games
Atlanta (82-55) at Nationals (65-74): Two games
Marlins (69-68) at Royals (62-76): Three games
