Okay, fine. Maybe I spoke too soon in Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview about the Pirates’ turn for the worse after entering May on a five-game losing streak. Admittedly, I’m looking like a fool after that statement, considering the Buccos ended that streak by sweeping the visiting Reds over the weekend. They didn’t just sweep Cincy, they crushed them, and set all kinds of franchise records in Saturday’s 17-7 victory. I had my reasons for believing that we may have seen the best from Pittsburgh already, but they proved me wrong. I’ll own that.
Speaking of those Reds. You’ll see that name on the top five list below, along with three other NL Central clubs. Cincinnati begins a four-game series at Wrigley Field on Monday, while the Brewers visit St. Louis for a three-game set, also beginning on Monday. You’ll notice one pattern in this week’s top five list. All five series are between division rivals. This will be the first series preview that doesn’t include a single non-division matchup.
Not much else to add in the lead, so let’s get to the list.
No. 1: Reds (20-14) at Cubs (22-12)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
It’s difficult to place this series anywhere but in the No. 1 spot this week. Despite the Reds’ lackluster weekend performance in Pittsburgh, in which they were outscored 27-8 in three losses, this franchise still has a top-eight record in MLB. However, they have a noticeable starting pitching problem right now. Other than 23-year-old Chase Burns (7 GS, 2.20 ERA), no other starting pitcher in their rotation has an ERA under 5.00. After rookie Rhett Lowder surrendered eight runs in only 1 ⅓ frames to the Pirates on Saturday, his ERA jumped up nearly two runs from 3.18 to 5.09. What’s scary is that Lowder’s ERA is still the second-best of all Reds starting pitchers.
To make matters worse for Cincy, they’re heading to Chicago to face a Cubs team that’s won 11 straight at home, and is currently on an MLB-best five-game winning streak. Other than Atlanta, there hasn’t been a more impressive squad in the National League than the Baby Bears. They rank in the top five in just about every major offensive category. On the pitching front, it’s good to see Shota Imanaga showing flashes of what made him a fifth-place finisher for the NL Cy Young in his rookie campaign two years ago. Imanaga tossed seven scoreless frames against the Diamondbacks in Saturday’s 2-0 victory. In seven starts, the southpaw has a 3-2 record, 2.40 ERA, and the third-best WHIP among qualified starting pitchers at 0.847. He’s scheduled to start in the final game of this series on Thursday.
This is the first meeting of the year between these squads. The Reds won 2025’s season series, 8-5.
No. 2: Brewers (18-15) at Cardinals (20-14)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Sticking to the NL Central trend, and the only division with all five teams above .500, we move to St. Louis, where the Cardinals and Brewers meet for the first time in ’26.
I continue to marvel at how Milwaukee gets it done. Let’s remember that they are currently without three of their top offensive threats. Two of those players are dealing with hand fractures (Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn), while the other, Christian Yelich, is on the 10-day IL with a groin injury. Yelich hasn’t played since April 12. Vaughn participated on Opening Day, but fractured his hand versus the White Sox and hasn’t played since (he is expected back on Monday for the start of this series). As for Chourio, he hasn’t even played yet this season after fracturing his left hand during spring training. He’s on a rehab assignment right now and was expected back for the start of this series until he fouled a ball off his right ankle on Saturday with Triple-A Nashville. X-rays were negative, and his return date to the big league club isn’t official as of this writing.
Folks, those are three key bats on a team that ranks in the bottom four in slugging percentage (.355), and has no player with more than five homers this season. Yet, here they are at 18-15, boasting a top-four team ERA (3.56), and finding ways to get it done offensively, thanks in large part to leading the majors in stolen bases with 38.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have won six of their last seven contests, including taking two of three from the visiting Dodgers over the weekend. The Cards saw another solid series from my early-season Comeback Player of the Year winner, Jordan Walker. The right fielder went 6-for-11 in the series versus Los Angeles, including mashing his 10th homer in Saturday’s 3-2 win. This is a tricky club to figure out. The pitching staff as a whole is in the middle to low-end of the pack in both starter ERA (ranked 17th at 4.27) and reliever ERA (ranked 26th at 4.92). I like SP Michael McGreevy’s numbers thus far (7 GS, 2-2, 2.52 ERA, 0.915 WHIP). I certainly am impressed with their current closer, 31-year-old Riley O’Brien (3-1 record with a 2.20 ERA, and tied for the second most saves in MLB with nine). However, after those two pitchers, it’s hard to get excited about the rest of the staff at this time.
In whatever way you want to break these clubs down, their win-loss records are impressive. They are both getting the job done in unusual ways. Last year, the Brewers won seven of 13 meetings against Cincy.
No. 3: Blue Jays (16-18) at Rays (21-12)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Another series of firsts. This is the first meeting of the season between the Jays and Rays. Tampa Bay won last year’s season series, 7-6, despite finishing 17 games back of Toronto in the AL East. This series feels much more important to the visitors than to the home team. Toronto is seven games behind the Yankees in the AL East, and 5 ½ back of Tampa Bay for second place. These teams will see plenty of each other over the next week-plus. A three-game set is coming in Toronto beginning next Monday.
Let’s talk Tampa Bay. I mentioned earlier how the Cubs have been one of the most impressive teams in the National League. It’s impossible not to feel the same way about the Rays in the American League, given that they have the second-best record in the AL after winning nine of their last 10 contests. The Rays aren’t in the top five in any major offensive category except for stolen bases (tied for second in MLB with 36). Sound familiar? Probably, because I feel like I’m repeating what was said about the Brewers. A team that runs the bases well, but isn’t a top-hitting club. The pitching has been where Tampa Bay has shone. Their starting staff has the fourth-best ERA in MLB (3.20) yet ranks only 25th in strikeouts, with 143 in 166 innings pitched.
It was quite a series that Toronto’s rookie third baseman, Kazuma Okamoto, had over the weekend versus Minnesota. The Jays won two of three contests on the road and were led by Okamoto’s four homers and seven ribbies. After a subpar March and April, this was exactly what the Jays had to be hoping for at the start of May. Toronto faces the AL’s worst team, the Los Angeles Angels, later this week before their next series with the Rays. This upcoming nine-game stretch for Canada’s team feels like a massive opportunity to get over .500.
Keep an eye on Tuesday’s pitching matchup between Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (7 GS, 2-2, 3.10 ERA) and Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen (6 GS, 2-1, 2.64 ERA).
No. 4: Guardians (18-17) at Royals (15-19)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Welcome home, Kansas City. The Royals are coming off three straight series versus AL West clubs. In those nine contests, we saw them sweep the Angels at home, lose two of three in Sacramento against the A’s, before closing out a six-game road trip with an impressive three-game sweep in Seattle. Now the Royals begin a seven-game homestand against AL Central foes with four contests against the Guardians followed by three games with Detroit. They’ll also travel to Chicago to play the White Sox next week, making it 10 straight division matches. KC is 5-8 against the AL Central so far this year, which included a 2-1 series loss at Cleveland in early April.
As for the Guardians, they continue to wait on their star José Ramírez to get going. He had another subpar series over the weekend versus the A’s, going 2-for-12 at the dish with one extra-base hit. For the season, Ramirez is batting .217 with 14 extra-base knocks, but he is tied for the American League lead in stolen bases with 13. I’m not worried about Ramirez. He’ll figure things out at the plate as he always does, and probably finish in the top five in MVP voting for a sixth time in his career. That’s just who he is.
I’m watching Monday’s opener closely. I never know what to make of Cleveland’s SP Tanner Bibee (7 GS, 0-4, 4.08 ERA). Some days he looks solid; on others, he looks lost. But there’s rarely a game where I’m blown away by his performance, at least not recently. Bibee was a pitcher who looked like a legit staff ace in his first two seasons with Cleveland in ’23 and ’24, but fell off a bit last year, and appears to be heading for a repeat of 2025. It’s still early, but I’m watching this matchup between Bibee and the Royals’ 34-year-old veteran, Michael Wacha (6 GS, 2-2, 3.13 ERA).
No. 5: Padres (20-13) at Giants (13-21)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
I learned something this morning thanks to our own Steve Drumwright’s MLB News & Moments article. I had no idea that the Giants’ 13-21 record matched the worst start in franchise history. They’ve lost six straight, but I was surprised by the tidbit that Steve gave us. Eight games under .500 to start a year is not good. But given that the Giants’ franchise dates back to 1883, you would think they’ve had a worse start than 13-21. That tells me two things.
- The Giants have been a great franchise (of course).
- The Giants might not be very good this year (probably).
San Fran’s 2026 hopes come down to one player for me. Rafael Devers or bust. Since he left Boston and arrived in San Francisco in June of last year via trade, Devers has been the biggest disappointment in MLB for my money. He’s making $27 million this season and is in the fourth year of a 10-year, $313 million-plus contract. If Giants fans weren’t impressed with Devers 90-game 2025 performance with the club (.236/.347/.460 slash line), then I can’t begin to imagine how they feel about his start to 2026 (34 games played, and .214/.257/.305 slash line). If this is the new norm for the first baseman, then I think we can safely eliminate this club from playoff contention for now. It’s not going to happen with a well below average offensive year from Devers.
The Padres travel to Oracle Park for the first time this season. They dropped two of three contests against San Fran in their second series of the year. San Diego is coming off a series loss to the White Sox, but is only a half-game behind the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West.
A big series for the Giants. Looking ahead, they welcome the Pirates to town next weekend before embarking on a 10-game road trip that begins with a four-game series against the Dodgers. The season could get even uglier by mid-May than what it already has become if San Fran doesn’t play well this week at home.
Missed the Top Five
Mets (12-22) at Rockies (14-21): Three games
Red Sox (13-21) at Tigers (18-17): Three games
A’s (18-16) at Phillies (14-20): Three games
Rangers (16-18) at Yankees (23-11): Three games
Dodgers (21-13) at Astros (14-21): Three games
White Sox (16-18) at Angels (13-22): Three games
Atlanta (25-10) at Mariners (16-19): Three games
Orioles (15-19) at Marlins (16-18): Three games
Twins (15-20) at Nationals (16-19): Three games
Pirates (19-16) at Diamondbacks (16-17): Three games
