Welcome to May baseball. As we look around MLB, pondering over the standings, leaderboards, and injury lists while trying to project the next five months of the regular season, I keep reminding myself that no team has played more than 32 contests. This means that every franchise has at least 130 games remaining. Therefore, making any predictions on a team’s fate at this stage is probably a fool’s errand.
For example, do I think the Mets are done? Probably. As I said in Monday’s MLB Series Preview, I cannot put the Mets on the top five series list for at least a few weeks, maybe longer. After being swept at home by Colorado last week, only to follow that up with a crushing 2-1 series loss in Washington on Thursday, New York officially owns the worst record in MLB at 10-21 (11 ½ games behind in the NL East, and eight back of an NL wild card spot). However, with five months to go, they have the talent to, perhaps, get back into the playoff picture. I’m not counting them out until further notice.
The Mets’ poor start aside, the most interesting and surprising fact I came across as April concluded on Thursday is that there are only three American League teams with winning records. The Yankees have the best win-loss record in the AL at 20-11. They are followed by fellow AL East foe, the Tampa Bay Rays, at 18-12. I’m not sure how many people figured the Rays would be this good. I, for one, did not. The only other American League franchise above .500 heading into the new month is the only team in baseball without a location next to their name…The Athletics.
No team in the AL Central is above .500 (Detroit and Cleveland are tied atop the division at 16-16). Flip this to the National League side, and eight franchises have winning records. What’s my point? Right now, I’d say the Senior Circuit is the stronger overall league by a wide margin. Ask me again at the end of May, and things might be very different.
As my top five list for this weekend is revealed, you’ll notice that only one of the 10 mentioned teams has a losing record (Orioles), and three others are .500. Two of the .500 teams are from the American League.
With that in mind, let’s look at this weekend’s top five series.
No. 1: Dodgers (20-11) at Cardinals (18-13)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If I were giving out awards for the most impressive series win of the week, look no further than the St. Louis Cardinals‘ four-game sweep at Pittsburgh. St. Louis entered the series on a four-game losing streak, and after outscoring the Pirates 30-18 in their victories, they are now five games over .500 at the start of a six-game homestand versus the Dodgers and Brewers, respectively. Watching rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt take Pittsburgh’s ace Paul Skenes out of the park to begin Thursday’s contest was a sign to me that this Cardinals team might be way better offensively than projected. Wetherholt and Alec Burleson drove in 11 of the team’s 30 runs in the series and were a combined 14-for-33 at the dish. The pitching is a “wait-and-see” situation, as it currently ranks 26th in MLB with a 4.76 ERA.
The NL West’s first-place squad begins a six-game road trip on Friday in St. Louis. The Dodgers are coming off a surprising series loss at home to the Miami Marlins. But at 20-11, I don’t think the MLB’s top slugging team (.452 slug) and, arguably, the league’s best pitching staff is all that worried after a small bump in the road to end April. Los Angeles has the third-lowest ERA in the majors (3.19), and the best WHIP (1.12) and opponent batting average (.210).
This weekend should be a good test for both starting staffs. The Dodgers’ top three starting pitchers won’t be going this weekend (Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow). Emmet Sheehan (5 GS, 2-0, 4.78 ERA) will start on Friday versus Cards winless southpaw Matthew Liberatore (6 GS, 0-1, 4.75 ERA). On Saturday, the Dodgers are hopeful that starting pitcher Roki Sasaki (5 GS, 1-2, 6.35 ERA) can perhaps throw more than five innings for the first time in what will be his sixth appearance of ’26. Sasaki will face the Cardinals’ most impressive starting arm thus far, right-hander Michael McGreevy (6 GS, 1-2, 2.97 ERA, 0.90 WHIP).
The bottom line. I’m keeping my eyes on the Cardinals’ offense versus the back end of the Dodgers’ rotation. This would be a nice series win to begin May for the home team.
No. 2: Orioles (15-16) at Yankees (20-11)
Series length: Four games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday)
It’s the first meeting of the campaign between these AL East rivals. We know what the Yankees are right now. They are a good team that still doesn’t have two of their best starting pitchers in the rotation. Both Gerrit Cole (TJ surgery) and lefty Carlos Rodón (elbow surgery) should be back within the next two weeks to make their season debuts. Add those boys to a rotation that already boasts the best starter ERA in baseball at 2.74, and the Yankees’ only problem will be trying to decide how the staff is aligned.
On the other hand, the Orioles starting rotation is an obvious issue. With Trevor Rogers being the most recent addition to the O’s Injured List (flu-like symptoms), they’ll need better efforts from the staff as a whole. Not one member of the current starting rotation has an ERA under 4.00. It also doesn’t help that offensively, they haven’t gotten much contribution from first baseman Pete Alonso (.198/.306/.362 slash line) or shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Despite Henderson’s nine homers, he’s only batting .214 and has struck out nearly four times as often as he’s drawn a walk (44:12 K-to-BB ratio).
This is the type of series the Orioles need to start swinging. Where better than hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium? It’s a big four-game series for the road team. They’ll meet again in less than two weeks for a three-game set in Baltimore.
No. 3: Reds (20-11) at Pirates (16-16)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Well, I’d be lying to all of you if I said, with a straight face, that Pittsburgh’s 16-16 record heading into May was impressive, given their recent history of struggles. Is it okay? Sure. Is it impressive? No. I’m sorry, but after being swept at home by the Cardinals this week, and watching Paul Skenes, once again, unable to take care of business against this NL Central foe (after Thursday’s loss, he’s now 0-5 in seven career starts versus St. Louis), my gut feeling is that the Pirates are about to take a turn for the worse. And this is coming from a guy who predicted the Pirates to win the NL Central on his own blog in the preseason. All based on the assumption that Skenes could win the big games and start lasting longer in his outings. Right now, Skenes is averaging less than five innings per start (4.8 IP to be exact). That is not good enough for a player of his caliber on a team that desperately needs good starting pitching.
In comes the first-place Cincinnati Reds. They are winners of five straight series and have an MLB-best 10-3 road record. This doesn’t look good for the home team. What’s fascinating about the Reds is that they are tied for the second-best record in baseball with the Yankees and Dodgers, yet their -3 run differential ranks last in the NL Central, tied with the aforementioned St. Louis Cardinals. That’s a nutty fact, and probably tells us that the division’s top club is playing a bit over its head. But, they are the only MLB team not to lose a one-run game and are 7-0 in that situation. There’s a bit of clutch in this team, and that can carry them over the long haul as long as the pitching holds up. So far, the under-25 starting pitchers, Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns, are a combined 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA. They’ll have to continue to be great while the team waits on staff ace Hunter Greene’s return from elbow surgery (expected back in the second half).
Pittsburgh took two of three contests at Cincinnati in the first series between these clubs a month ago.
No. 4: Diamondbacks (16-14) at Cubs (19-12)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
With all the big names between these clubs like Arizona’s Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte as well as Chicago’s Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman, only one has my complete attention as this three-game set gets underway on Friday afternoon. Let me introduce the current MLB batting leader, Mr. Ildemaro Vargas. Arizona’s 34-year-old first baseman leads the majors in batting average (.378), and is the National League leader in slugging percentage (.689) and OPS (1.087). Oh yeah, and he’s also on an MLB-best 23-game hitting streak.
Vargas’s big league career began in 2017 with the Diamondbacks, followed by stints with several other clubs, including his opponent this weekend, the Chicago Cubs. He’s a career .257 hitter and has never played more than 100 games in a season. He’s struck out only 11 times in 90 at-bats this season, and right now I could make the argument that he is the main reason Arizona is two games above .500.
Chicago is 11-5 at home. They are coming off an impressive 2-1 series win at San Diego, and have won seven of their last 10 contests. Keep an eye on Crow-Armstrong. He got off to a sluggish start in April, but homered in each of his last two games in San Diego this week to end the month. If he’s ready to take off, then watch out, NL Central. Chicago has scored the third most runs in MLB (169) and has the fourth highest batting average (.261). All this while PCA has struggled offensively (.241/.307/.362 slash line).
No. 5: Guardians (16-16) at Athletics (17-14)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I figure if two division leaders are facing at the start of May, then I probably ought to fit them in somewhere. Granted, at 16-16, the Guardians haven’t exactly been tearing it up. As mentioned at the start, they enter May tied with Detroit atop the AL Central despite a -8 run differential and a pedestrian .228 team batting average. They’ve dropped three consecutive series after losing two of three to the Rays this week.
As for the Athletics, like the Guardians, they can call themselves a division leader despite having a negative run differential (-5 entering Friday). The A’s have won three consecutive series, including their latest at home versus the AL Central’s last-place club, the Kansas City Royals. If I’m going to give you one player to keep an eye on in this series, it’s the Athletics‘ starting first baseman, Nick Kurtz. As our own Michael Hanlon wrote this morning in his MLB News & Moments article, Kurtz has drawn a free pass in 19 consecutive games. He’s one game away from tying Barry Bonds for the second most consecutive contests with a walk, and three away from the all-time record of 22. That’s impressive, and reason enough to tune in for this series on Friday.
Missed the top five
Rangers (15-16) at Tigers (16-16): Three games
Brewers (16-14) at Nationals (15-17): Three games
Astros (12-20) at Red Sox (12-19): Three games
Giants (13-18) at Rays (18-12): Three games
Phillies (12-19) at Marlins (15-16): Four games
Blue Jays (14-17) at Twins (14-18): Four games *Twins won Thursday’s opener, 7-1.
Atlanta (22-10) at Rockies (14-18): Three games
Mets (10-21) at Angels (12-20): Three games
White Sox (14-17) at Padres (19-11): Three games
Royals (12-19) at Mariners (16-16): Three games
