I want to start the day with a question. Which league’s wild-card race is more exciting to you right now? I’m trying to look at each league in an unbiased way. Simply as a baseball fan who enjoys following all teams and races. No rooting interest. With that in mind, is the AL or NL wild-card race more entertaining?
Personally, I don’t think it’s close. Yes, the American League has an astonishing seven clubs within 2 ½ games of the final wild-card spot with exactly six weeks remaining in the regular season. Let’s be honest about something. Even though the Boston Red Sox have lost all of the momentum they built up during one of the craziest and most unpredictable runs we’ve seen in recent years (going 27-3 over 30 contests at one point) after dropping their third consecutive series with a loss to Pittsburgh over the weekend, they are still in good shape. Every other AL squad behind Boston is under .500, and because of that, the Sox are still comfortably ahead for the second WC spot by five games.
Saying all that, I can’t get as excited about a bunch of losing AL teams battling for one spot as I can with a National League wild-card race that involves five winning squads (Phillies, Padres, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Cardinals) all within 3 ½ games. With two NL wild-card berths up for grabs right now, and knowing that whoever ends up taking those spots will almost certainly have a winning record at season’s end, I’m far more intrigued by the quality of the NL WC contenders over the quantity of the AL’s when it comes to these playoff races.
The National League wild-card race is where it’s at for me right now, and with that in mind, this week’s No. 1 series pairs two of those five NL teams mentioned above.
No. 1: Marlins (64-61) at Phillies (67-58)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
I’m not going to lie. After the Marlins went an MLB-best 20-6 in June and followed that up with a 10-15 record in July, which included a 12-game losing streak, I thought they were toast. Their best contact hitters have gone cold (Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards have a combined .216 second-half batting average). They traded their top RBI guy, Liam Hicks, to Tampa Bay. And 27-year-old SP Max Meyer (9-1, 2.68 ERA) has been on the IL with a neck strain since mid-July. Yet, despite those hardships, the Fish are winners of three consecutive series and enter this crucial matchup with the Phillies only three games out of a wild-card spot. That tells me one thing. The Marlins don’t quit.
The Phillies are coming off a three-game sweep at Minnesota, which included the Field of Dreams Game on Thursday in Dyersville, Iowa. Philly enters this series tied with San Diego for the NL’s second and third wild-card spots. Arizona is one game back, while the club they are about to face over the next three days is within striking distance. That makes this final series of the campaign between these rivals incredibly important for both. At this moment, neither Philadelphia nor Miami is thinking about division-leading Atlanta at 7 ½ and 10 ½ games out, respectively.
These WC contenders have split 10 games this season, but Miami has won the last four meetings. The Marlins have struggled on the road this year, going 26-36 away from LoanDepot Park.
Expected pitching matchups:
Monday: MIA – Janson Junk (17 GS, 6-7, 4.41 ERA) versus PHI – Cristopher Sánchez (25 GS, 15-4, 2.54 ERA)
Tuesday: MIA – Tyler Phillips (30 G, 14 GS, 3-6, 3.65 ERA) versus PHI – Zack Wheeler (20 GS, 10-4, 2.89 ERA)
Wednesday: MIA – Sandy Alcantara (26 GS, 13-7, 3.43 ERA) versus PHI – Aaron Nola (25 GS, 4-9, 5.33 ERA)
No. 2: Yankees (69-55) at Orioles (61-63)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
On we go to the American League, where three of the next four series on this week’s top five list will include every member of the AL East. That’s how tight the AL wild card is, and even though the Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox appear safe for a playoff berth at the moment, there’s still a lot of things to be figured out in this division before October arrives. One of those things is how many clubs from the AL East will make the postseason.
Entering Monday, the Baltimore Orioles, who didn’t have a winning month until going 15-8 in July, are currently holding the AL’s third wild card position by a half-game over Texas, with five other teams right behind them, as mentioned in the lead. Before the start of this series on Tuesday, the O’s will try to complete a four-game sweep at Tampa Bay on Monday, which would be quite an accomplishment given the Rays’ MLB-best 41-21 home record.
For the most part, Baltimore, like Toronto (we’ll get to them later), has underachieved this year. However, when you think about it, every AL East squad had relatively high expectations this season. When that happens, one or two of them certainly won’t meet those lofty goals. Right now, this is the only division in baseball where every team is within one game of a playoff spot. The only other comparable division is the AL Central, where every club other than Kansas City is within 1 ½ games of the playoffs.
New York is in great shape as far as the wild card goes. After a series loss to Toronto over the weekend, they still have a three-game advantage over the struggling Red Sox for the top WC position. Yes, the AL East title is still within range (5 ½ games behind Tampa Bay), but regardless of what happens in the division, it would take a monumental collapse by the Pinstripes to fall out of the 4 vs. 5 ALWC series. New York is eight games clear of a playoff spot.
So far, the Yankees have matched up well with Baltimore, winning five of the first seven head-to-head meetings. All seven games took place in May. They’ll also battle again in the last series of the season at Yankee Stadium (Sept. 25-27).
No. 3: Blue Jays (61-65) at Rays (74-49)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I originally had this series between AL East foes at the No. 2 spot, but I moved it down to the third position because the overall impact of this three-game set on the Rays and Jays is slightly less than the New York and Baltimore matchup. The reason is that Tampa Bay is comfortably ahead in the race for the American League’s best record, while the Yankees still have Boston nipping at their heels for that all-important No. 4 seed and home-field advantage in the ALWC. With the Blue Jays and Orioles a scratch as far as the importance of their respective matchups (separated by one game in the standings), this series is obviously slightly less impactful on the overall playoff picture given Tampa Bay’s position.
Toronto is coming off a 2-1 series win at home versus the Yankees, and is quietly making a run in the AL wild card race. I say “quietly” because did you know that the Blue Jays are not only 7-3 over their last 10 games, but have won six straight series dating back to last month? I was unaware of this fact until I came across it today. Toronto has been so inconsistent since April that, even after six consecutive series victories, they are still four games under .500.
Here’s something to keep in mind with last year’s AL champs. After this series with Tampa Bay and another get-together with the Yankees this weekend, the Jays have a relatively soft schedule for a while (3 games vs. Royals, 3 vs. Mariners, 3 at Guardians, 3 at Royals, 3 at A’s). That’s 15 consecutive contests against sub-.500 AL clubs. If Toronto can survive their next six road games against the American League’s top two squads, Jays fans would have to be somewhat optimistic about their playoff chances going forward. Also of note: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won’t be eligible to play in this series after landing on the seven-day concussion IL following a collision at third base during Friday’s contest against the Yankees. He could be back for this weekend’s series in the Bronx.
It’s been all Tampa Bay so far in their head-to-head matchups with Toronto. The Rays are 8-2 versus the Blue Jays, and this will be the last meeting of ’26 between these teams.
No. 4: White Sox (65-58) at Cubs (72-53)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Let’s get to some interleague duels. Undoubtedly, the most intriguing of those series will take place at Wrigley Field beginning on Monday when the AL Central-leading White Sox meet the National League’s top wild-card holder. In May, the Sox won a high-scoring series at Rate Field, 2-1, in their only other meeting with the Cubs this season.
Things have changed for the North Siders since they last met the White Sox. Most noteworthy, Pete Crow-Armstrong is no longer batting in the bottom half of the order. Three months ago, Crow-Armstrong was penciled into the eighth spot for each contest of that series. It wasn’t until late May that manager Craig Counsell moved him back to the leadoff position, where the NL MVP contender has pretty much thrived ever since. However, Chicago’s center fielder is 2-for-23 at the dish over his last five contests, and if the Baby Bears have any shot at catching the Brewers in the NL Central, he’ll have to do better than his .230/.338/.508 slash line so far in August. The Cubs will also be without their second-leading RBI man, shortstop Dansby Swanson, who went on the 10-day IL with a left oblique injury after Sunday’s contest versus the Cardinals.
As for the White Sox, things can’t get much better. Not only are they coming off a series sweep at Detroit, who trailed Chicago in the AL Central by 2 ½ games entering Friday’s opener, but the South Siders have a three-game lead over the AL West-leading Astros for the American League’s No. 2 seed. The top two seeds in each league earn a bye to the ALDS. It’s remarkable to think that a year ago today, this franchise was an AL-worst 44-80 en route to its third straight 100-loss campaign. I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that has been a more pleasant surprise than this White Sox club. Looking ahead, Chicago plays only two franchises in September that currently have winning records; I’d say their odds of holding onto the division lead are very promising.
Monday’s opener will see White Sox veteran SP Luis Castillo on the mound (22 G, 19 GS, 4-9, 4.96 ERA), who is coming off a dominant outing against Cincinnati last Wednesday (W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 10 K) in his second start with Chicago since being traded over from Seattle on August 1. He’ll face Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga (24 GS, 8-9, 3.74 ERA).
No. 5: Diamondbacks (66-59) at Red Sox (66-58)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Given the combined records of these two franchises and how well they have played against winning clubs lately, this could be a great three-game set at Fenway Park. It’s funny how certain teams rise to the occasion against better competition, only to drop to the level of lesser squads in head-to-head action. That’s what we’ve seen with Arizona and Boston lately.
The Red Sox have lost three consecutive series to sub-.500 clubs (A’s, Blue Jays, and Pirates). Before that, Boston won nine consecutive series, four of which came against winning teams (2 vs. White Sox, 1 vs. Rays, 1 vs. Dodgers). Arizona began August with a series win over Cleveland, who at the time had a winning record, and has since taken down the NL West and NL East division leaders, Los Angeles and Atlanta, with 2-1 series victories over each. However, the D-backs lost two of three at home to the last-place Rockies in between their matchups with the Dodgers and Atlanta.
I have no idea what this all means, but hopefully, as I said at the beginning, we’re in for a good series between two postseason contenders who have played best when their opponents have winning records.
Missed the Top Five
Tigers (60-64) at Pirates (61-65): Three games
Padres (67-58) at Mets (56-69): Three games
A’s (49-75) at Royals (51-74): Four games
Atlanta (74-50) at Twins (60-65): Three games
Dodgers (74-51) at Rockies (50-74): Three games
Cardinals (63-61) at Reds (59-64): Five games
Giants (51-73) at Guardians (60-65): Three games
Mariners (59-66) at Brewers (77-48): Three games
Nationals (60-66) at Rangers (61-64): Three games
Angels (49-76) at Astros (63-62): Three games
