There was something fascinating about Boston’s 15-game winning streak last week. Watching a team surprise the world by literally coming out of nowhere to not only get back in the playoff picture, but to hold the third AL wild card spot after beginning the month 5 ½ games back of Seattle for that position. After their streak ended last Wednesday versus Baltimore, I was curious how they’d play against Toronto over the weekend. Would they lose momentum and fall back to their old ways? Or would they see the loss as a bump in the road and not a big deal? Apparently, it was the latter. Boston won two of three contests versus the Blue Jays for their sixth consecutive series win. The Red Sox now hit the road for seven games this week with a visit to Sacramento to face the A’s followed by a trip to Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
Honestly, for as fascinating and surprising as Boston’s winning streak was, I’m close to saying that Miami’s current 12-game losing skid might have captured my attention even more. How can a club go from as hot as Miami was in June (MLB-best record of 20-6) to the second-worst record in July (6-14)? After dropping Sunday’s game courtesy of another relief disaster, this time in the eighth inning, which included two San Diego homers, Miami now has a 6.47 bullpen ERA during this horrific 12-game stretch. A stretch that has seen the offense go from a Top 10 hitting club in the first half to one that is only batting .210 since the All-Star break with a National League-worst .267 OBP. Right now, I don’t have a good answer for this sudden drop in production. However, because this losing streak is such a surprise for a team that was holding a playoff spot not all that long ago, I’m willing to do something that goes against my belief about what deserves a top-five series spot in late July. The Miami Marlins will make this week’s top-five list when they host Philadelphia in a very important three-game set. I must be crazy. With that thought in mind, let’s begin.
No. 1: Cubs (59-46) at Cardinals (53-52)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
St. Louis has a 4-2 record versus the Cubs this season, including a 2-1 series win at Wrigley Field when they last met in early July. Since that series victory over Chicago, the Redbirds have gone 6-11 and have lost two consecutive sets against last-place teams, the Angels and Reds. The Cardinals are getting on base at a .296 clip since the All-Star break and have an even lower slugging percentage at .295 (the lowest in MLB). That’s about as unproductive as it gets. Yet here we are on July 27, and despite recent struggles, St. Louis is only 1 ½ games out of a wild-card spot.
Meanwhile, the Cubbies have a respectable 11-8 July record and are coming off a 2-1 series win at Pittsburgh; another NL Central squad right in the thick of the playoff hunt. I’ve been skeptical of Chicago’s pitching all year, and frankly, after Pete Crow-Armstrong, I don’t have much trust in this offense come playoff time. But that’s a topic for another day. As it stands entering the final week of July, the Baby Bears are in a great position to finish second in the NL Central for a fourth consecutive season. They also have a 2 ½ game advantage over Philadelphia for the NL’s top wild card position. The Cubs are looking for home-field advantage in the NLWC for a second straight campaign.
This is a storied rivalry between two winning franchises. With it also being a four-game series, I find it difficult to keep this matchup out of the No. 1 spot.
No. 2: Yankees (59-46) at White Sox (55-49)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Our second four-game series making this week’s top five list pairs the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox against the American League’s top wild-card holder, the New York Yankees. These clubs met in mid-June at Yankee Stadium, where New York won two out of three contests in decisive fashion. The Yanks outscored Chicago 22-7 in the first two games before dropping the series finale 5-1. One of the key players was Cody Bellinger, who collected six hits and drove in four runs in the Pinstripes’ two victories. The Yankees will be without their All-Star outfielder in this series. Bellinger landed on the 10-day IL after straining his hamstring on Saturday versus Philadelphia.
New York was already struggling offensively with a healthy Bellinger (MLB-worst .200 team batting average in the second half), so it will be interesting to see how the visitors fare over the next seven days in the Windy City. Following this series, they’ll travel eight miles north to face the Cubs for three games at Wrigley Field.
There are two aspects of this series that New York should have going for them. First, the Yankees are an AL-best 33-23 on the road after their 2-1 series win at Philadelphia over the weekend. Second, they’ll send their top three starting pitchers to the bump beginning on Monday. Even if their offense continues to struggle, it’s going to be difficult for Chicago to score runs consistently throughout this series. Here are the expected pitching matchups:
Monday: NYY – Max Fried (11 GS, 4-3, 2.97 ERA) versus CHW – Noah Schultz (12 GS, 3-7, 6.04 ERA)
Tuesday: NYY- Gerrit Cole (11 GS, 3-5, 3.92 ERA) versus CHW – Anthony Kay (21 G, 19 GS, 7-4, 4.21 ERA)
Wednesday: NYY – Cam Schlittler (22 GS, 10-6, 2.07 ERA) versus CHW – Davis Martin (20 GS, 9-5, 3.49 ERA)
Thursday: NYY – Ryan Weathers (20 GS, 4-7, 4.25 ERA) versus CHW – Sean Burke (21 G, 17 GS, 7-5, 3.19 ERA)
Hard to pick against the Yankees pitching, but for as good as New York has played on the road, keep in mind that Chicago has the second best home record in the American League at 32-19.
No. 3: Rangers (53-52) at Rays (62-43)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Regardless of today’s outcome between the Rangers and Mariners as they wrap up their four-game series with first pitch coming around the time of this article’s release at 2:30 PM ET, we know that Texas will still be leading the AL West. That means this three-game set on Tuesday will see two American League division leaders, which alone makes it worthy of a top-five selection.
Here’s one thing I hope we can all agree on about Tampa Bay. For as long as their pitching continues to rank in the top 10 in ERA (3.75 ERA entering this week) and the offense continues to lead the American League in batting average (.260) and OBP (.333), then they have as good a chance as anyone to represent the Junior Circuit in this year’s Fall Classic. The Rays have the best home record in MLB at 38-15, and right now have a three-game lead over the Yankees for the AL’s overall No. 1 seed.
Take New York out of the equation, and I would say that the White Sox are the only team within spitting distance of that top overall seed at 6 ½ games back. What that means is that there’s only one franchise keeping MLB’s best home team from having home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs. That would be the Yankees. And that is why a series like this one against the AL West’s top squad, followed by a three-game home set with the White Sox, will tell us a lot about how potential postseason clubs play at Tropicana Field with two months remaining in the regular season.
If Texas defeats Seattle on Monday afternoon, they’ll have at least a two-game lead in the AL West depending on how Houston fares against the Angels. Entering Monday, the ‘Stros sit two games back of the Rangers in the division. Following this series, Texas travels to Daikin Park for a huge three-game set with the Astros. I can all but guarantee that matchup will earn a top-five series spot on Friday’s MLB Weekend Series Preview.
No. 4: Diamondbacks (55-51) at Pirates (54-52)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
After watching both of these NL wild-card contenders drop two of three contests over the weekend, this series doesn’t have quite the intrigue I was hoping for had they both won. Regardless, the D-backs hold the third and final NL wild-card position by one game over the Pirates and Nationals. With 56 contests remaining for both clubs, this is a big series, especially if these playoff contenders tie for a wild-card spot at season’s end.
Pittsburgh won two of three games when these franchises met in early May at Arizona. With head-to-head records being the first tiebreaker come playoff time, that makes the next three days all the more important for the Snakes, who dropped only their second series of July after a weekend loss versus Washington. My eyes are on Wednesday’s expected pitching matchup between Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez (21 GS, 9-3, 2.64 ERA) and Pittsburgh’s right-hander Jared Jones (10 GS, 2-1, 3.72 ERA). Given the very pedestrian starter ERA for both clubs this season (Pirates – 4.17 starter ERA, D-backs – 4.42 starter ERA), it will be refreshing to see a duel between a top-five NL ERA holder in Rodriguez taking on a red-hot 24-year-old who has posted a 1.29 ERA over four July starts spanning 21 frames. Opponents are hitting .100 against Jones this month, and his 0.52 WHIP in that time is difficult to ignore.
Based on my propensity to hype up potentially great starting pitching duels this season only to see them not live up to expectations, it probably means that Wednesday’s finale will be the highest scoring contest of the series. But I’ll build it up anyway. I see no other SP matchup on Monday or Tuesday that makes me believe Rodriguez versus Jones won’t be the best of the bunch.
Monday will be a battle of the Kells when Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (18 GS, 8-8, 5. 12 ERA) faces Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller (20 GS, 6-7, 4.90 ERA). Brandon Pfaadt (18 G, 8 GS, 5-1, 4.43 ERA) gets the ball for the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. He’ll face Pirates 23-year-old Bubba Chandler (20 G, 19 GS, 3-8, 4.47 ERA).
No. 5: Phillies (57-49) at Marlins (52-54)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Ahhh, here we go. The series I hesitated to rank in the top five because of how disastrous Miami baseball has been lately. Again, as I said in the lead, sometimes we must flip the script. We need to recognize that a club that was performing at such an elite level only a month ago is now playing worse than anyone else in the sport. It’s been an unbelievable turn of events for a team that I thought just a couple of weeks ago had enough on its roster to make the postseason in the loaded National League. Now, all I’m hearing from the pundits are rumors of the Marlins becoming sellers, despite being only three games out of a wild-card spot.
If the Marlins are to end this 12-game losing streak sooner rather than later, they’ll have to do so against a Phillies squad that has owned them so far in ’26. Miami is 2-5 versus Philadelphia this year, and on Monday they’ll face one of the league’s best, Zack Wheeler (16 GS, 10-2, 2.16 ERA). The Marlins will counter with righty Tyler Phillips (26 G, 10 GS, 2-5, 3.52 ERA), who has spent more time in a reliever role than as a starting pitcher.
The most intriguing game, and quite possibly the last time we’ll see Sandy Alcantara (22 GS, 10-6, 4.01 ERA) in a Marlins uniform if the Fish drop this series, will come on Tuesday when the 2022 NL Cy Young winner gets the call against Phillies veteran Aaron Nola (21 GS, 3-8, 5.82 ERA). The trade rumors around Alcantara every July for the last few seasons have become kind of a folly. Nothing comes of them, but once again, those rumors are back just in time for the August 3 Trade Deadline.
Will the Marlins actually send Alcantara to another franchise? I don’t know, but if the losing streak continues, and God forbid, the Marlins are swept by the Phillies, then how can fans not believe any trade rumors surrounding this once promising team? My guess is that this series will be about as intense as fans have seen at LoanDepot Park in quite some time.
Missed the Top Five
Orioles (51-55) at Tigers (50-56): Three games
Blue Jays (48-58) at Nationals (54-52): Three games
Guardians (54-53) at Reds (49-55): Three games
Atlanta (62-43) at Mets (44-62): Three games
Astros (52-55) at Angels (42-64): Three games
Red Sox (54-50) at A’s (44-61): Four games
Brewers (66-39) at Giants (44-61): Three games
Royals (45-62) at Twins (53-54): Three games
Mariners (52-54) at Dodgers (67-39): Three games
Rockies (42-65) at Padres (53-53): Two games
