We’re nearing the end of MLB Series Preview. With one week left in the regular season and two previews remaining, we’re at a point now where clubs can pretty much throw all the numbers out the window. Team stats no longer matter in the final week. For playoff hopefuls, it comes down to guts and good baseball. What these postseason contenders did statistically over the previous 26 weeks doesn’t matter now. If they’re hoping to play in October, it’s all about the next seven days, period.
This week, because more than just five series have some sort of playoff impact, I’ve decided to give a one-sentence preview of the 10 series outside of the top five. Nothing major, just a quick thought on each as a kind of end-of-season bonus. You can read those in the Missed the Top Five section below.
We have some good matchups at the top, and even though every one of the six teams mentioned in the first three series are in comfortable shape as far as qualifying for the postseason, I couldn’t leave them off the big list this week. You’ll see three potential playoff previews followed by two series involving road squads fighting for a division title. Let’s get started.
No. 1: Padres (87-69) at Dodgers (96-60)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
This is a rivalry with plenty of spice. If the playoffs started today, the Dodgers would be the NL’s No. 2 seed and await the winner of Atlanta-Philadelphia, while the Padres would be the No. 5 seed and visit the Cubs in the NLWC beginning next Tuesday. I have this series at the top for a few reasons.
No. 1: These are MLB’s hottest clubs in September. After San Diego’s 3-0 sweep of Miami at Petco Park over the weekend to officially eliminate the Marlins from postseason contention, the Padres’ record this month improved to 14-4. They’ve won five straight contests, five straight series, and are about to face a Dodgers squad whose 14-5 September record is the second-best mark this month in MLB. From a who’s playing well right now perspective, this is easily the best series of the week.
No. 2: They are division rivals, and if only the Padres could have played this well in the first half, we’d have a heckuva NL West race right now. But the Dodgers clinched the division last Thursday and lead San Diego by nine games in the standings. Still, this is a great opportunity for the Padres to see how they match up with Los Angeles after going 3-7 against the Blue Crew in their first 10 meetings. It’s been a while since their last meeting at Dodger Stadium in early July, and with both squads playing their best baseball heading into the final week, this should be an entertaining series.
No. 3: Most importantly, both clubs are still playing for postseason positioning. San Diego is tied with Chicago for the league’s top wild card spot. Whoever ends up with the No. 4 seed gets home-field advantage in the NLWC. Recall, in last year’s NL Wild Card round, the Padres lost to Chicago in three games at Wrigley Field. There’s no doubt they’d enjoy turning the tables and hosting the Cubs in a rematch of last year’s entertaining Best-of-3 series. As for the Dodgers, they are still in the mix for the NL’s No. 1 seed at two games back of Milwaukee. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, the Brewers own the tiebreaker after winning four of seven head-to-head meetings. Therefore, the Dodgers are technically three games off the pace with six contests remaining.
Tuesday’s opener is expected to see San Diego’s Michael King (31 GS, 12-9, 3.03 ERA) take on Dodgers World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (27 GS, 14-8, 2.51 ERA).
No. 2: Brewers (98-58) at Phillies (86-70)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Philadelphia is in an almost identical situation to San Diego. They are safely ahead of the Diamondbacks in the wild card race by four games (San Diego is five games clear of Arizona), and are fighting with the Friars and Baby Bears for the top wild card and home advantage in the NLWC (all three franchises are within one game of the No. 4 seed). Arizona is the only NL team outside the playoff picture that hasn’t been eliminated from postseason contention. That is great news for the three current wild card squads, who all have a comfy lead on the Snakes, and also understand that the scuffling D-backs are the lone club that could keep them from making the playoffs. After Atlanta clinched the NL East on Sunday, Philadelphia’s longshot hopes at winning that division disappeared. Following this series, the Phils host the Rays to wrap up the regular season.
Milwaukee is still trying to keep the Dodgers from snagging the NL’s No. 1 seed, but also can’t sleep on the Rays, who are only 2 ½ games back for MLB’s best record. More importantly to the Brewers, though, is keeping the Dodgers from that top seed. As already mentioned earlier, the Brew Crew is really three games ahead of Los Angeles with the tiebreaker on their side. They end the season with a three-game set at home versus St. Louis.
In their only other get-together of ’26, the Brewers won two of three contests versus Philadelphia at American Family Field in June. Milwaukee’s veteran Dustin May (29 GS, 7-9, 4.61 ERA) takes on Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (26 GS, 13-5, 2.99 ERA) in Tuesday’s opener.
No. 3: Rays (95-60) at Yankees (89-66)
Series length: Four games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) *Doubleheader on Tuesday
Well, it would have been a tad more exciting had the Yankees won their series in Arizona over the weekend. Instead, they lost two of three contests, while also falling further behind Tampa Bay in the AL East following the Rays’ 2-1 series victory over Boston. What’s that leave for us in this four-game set? A must-sweep situation for the Bronx Bombers, or they’ll have to settle for what feels inevitable at this point – the AL’s top wild card. Tampa Bay’s magic number to clinch the AL East is two.
What boggles my mind with this matchup is that it’s a very possible ALDS preview between the league’s best teams by record. In the upper portion of the American League playoff bracket, the most likely scenario is that the league’s top three clubs by record (TB, NYY, BOS) will be on a collision course over the first two rounds, while the other three teams will battle for a spot in the ALCS. I hate it. There should be some sort of reseeding come playoff time so things like this don’t happen. I’ve always felt, especially now with six clubs getting in from each league, that winning a division should only guarantee the franchise a postseason berth, not necessarily home field advantage and a top three seed if their overall record is worse than, say, some of the wild card squads seeded below them.
A 162-game season, especially with fewer intradivision games now, gives us a much better idea of who the best clubs are based solely on record. There’s no doubt, by the records and numbers, that the American League’s best three teams by far reside in the AL East. Look no further than run differential. Boston’s +80 is the lowest of the three AL East contenders, and the next-closest current AL playoff team to the Red Sox is the No. 6 seed, the Chicago White Sox, at +42. The current AL Central-leading Guardians are at +2, while the laughable AL West-leading Rangers are at -34. Somehow, if the postseason began today, the White Sox, Guardians, and Rangers would be on the same side of the bracket, and the worst team by record of them all, the Rangers, would have home-field advantage in the ALWC. That’s silly.
Anyway, the Rays are looking to clinch the AL East with a victory and, with that, home-field advantage through the American League playoffs. The Yankees are all but locked into the No. 4 seed, and if they get one more win, they’ll be guaranteed home field in the ALWC. Boston currently trails by 5 ½ games for that top wild card position.
Right now, Tuesday’s doubleheader pitching matchups look like this:
Game 1: TB – Nick Martinez (29 GS, 15-4, 2.94 ERA) versus NYY – Carlos Rodón (15 GS, 6-3, 2.95 ERA)
Game 2: TB – Drew Rasmussen (29 GS, 15-5, 2.72 ERA) versus NYY – Max Fried (19 GS, 5-4, 2.63 ERA)
No. 4: Guardians (81-75) at Red Sox (84-72)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I’ve been saying it for a couple of weeks, and I’ll say it one last time. Boston is safe for the No. 5 seed in the American League playoffs. Entering this series, the Red Sox have a four-game lead over Chicago for that spot. However, I want to throw something out there that goes against everything that professional sports should be about. Would it be so bad for Boston if they threw their last six games after already clinching a playoff berth on Sunday? Why do I ask this question? Because no one can tell me that the Red Sox would rather travel to New York in the ALWC to take on a familiar foe, who won the season series against Boston, 7-6, than play the AL Central or AL West champion as the sixth seed.
Maybe I’m wrong, and after Boston lost the final two games of last year’s ALWC at Yankee Stadium, perhaps they want some revenge as soon as possible. But I doubt it. If the Yankees aren’t a team they want to avoid, then certainly it would be the club they’d face in the ALDS if they were to take out the Pinstripes. The 95-win Tampa Bay Rays would await the winner of that series. Last I knew, most sports franchises would gladly take the easiest path to the championship round. If that’s something the Red Sox want, then going 0-6 this week and allowing a team like Chicago to overtake them doesn’t sound like a bad idea. However, even if Boston went 0-6, there’s still no guarantee that one of the other division/wild card contenders would catch them. So, I’m not sure if that’s really in their plans at this point, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s in the back of every player’s mind.
Cleveland is playing well. They enter this series on a five-game winning streak after a weekend sweep of the A’s. Now the Guardians, at 81-75, are at the very least comfortably ahead of the American League’s first few teams out of the postseason picture. The Blue Jays and Astros are three games behind Chicago for the final AL wild card slot, which means they are four games back of Cleveland if the Guardians were to lose the AL Central to the White Sox. In other words, the current AL Central leaders should be safe for a playoff berth one way or another. The question now is whether they can hang onto their one-game lead in the division with six road contests coming up at Boston and Kansas City.
The White Sox own the tiebreaker with Cleveland after winning the season series, 7-6. Like the Guardians, Chicago also plays a three-game series in Kansas City this week beginning on Tuesday. They’ll wrap up the regular season with a three-game set at home versus the 57-99 Rockies. I’d be lying if I said Cleveland’s schedule is more favorable.
Tuesday’s opener pairs two quality rookie left-handers as Cleveland’s Parker Messick (30 GS, 12-9, 2.57 ERA) battles Boston’s Payton Tolle (25 GS, 9-6, 3.02 ERA).
No. 5: Astros (77-79) at Mariners (73-83)
Series length: Two games (Tuesday, Wednesday)
It’s only two games between these AL West rivals, but given the importance to Houston’s division race with Texas and Seattle’s last hope of returning to the playoffs, it makes sense to have this series at No. 5.
It’s a simple scenario for the Mariners. They have been officially eliminated from the AL wild card race; currently seven games back with six contests remaining. Their only glimmer of hope, if you even want to call it that, is the AL West crown. Seattle is five games back of Texas and must go 6-0 the rest of the way, while also needing the Rangers to go winless this week over their final six contests versus the Mets and Twins.
Technically, the M’s and Rangers would tie atop the AL West if Seattle goes 6-0 and Texas finishes 1-5. Unfortunately for Seattle, the Rangers won the season series 8-5 and own the tiebreaker. Since there is no longer a Game 163, the original scenario mentioned earlier must happen. Let’s pretend that the Mariners run the table, and the Rangers go 0-6. Even if that occurs, there’s no guarantee that Seattle gets in unless Houston, who currently has a four-game edge on the M’s, goes no better than 2-4 this week. The Mariners have already won the season series against Houston (currently up 9-2). If by some miracle Seattle and the ‘Stros had a two-way tie atop the AL West, the M’s would repeat as division champs. Simple enough, right?
Now to the far more likely scenario that Seattle is eliminated from postseason contention. If or when that happens, the AL West will come down to Texas and Houston. The Astros won the season series with Texas, 9-4. At one game back with six contests to play for both clubs, Houston will have to make up ground on the road. Following this series, they play four games in Sacramento against the A’s. That’s not a bad final series to have for the Astros, although they are 4-5 versus the Athletics this year. I’ll talk more about that series on Friday.
Houston’s Cristian Javier (16 G, 11 GS, 2-6, 5.31 ERA) is expected to get the nod in Tuesday’s opener against Seattle’s top arm, Logan Gilbert (30 GS, 12-10, 3.69 ERA).
Missed the Top Five
White Sox (80-76) at Royals (67-89): Three games – A huge week ahead for Chicago, and remember the good news is that they have the tiebreaker over Cleveland in the AL Central.
Mets (71-85) at Rangers (78-78): Three games – The good news for Texas is that they have a one-game lead over Houston in the AL West, but the tiebreaker is not in their favor, and even worse, if they drop out of the division lead over the next few days, they’ll be on the outside of the wild card picture by at least a couple of games.
Blue Jays (77-79) at Orioles (75-81): Three games – Two AL East clubs with slim wild card hopes after going a combined 1-5 over the weekend.
Diamondbacks (82-74) at Rockies (57-99): Three games – The Snakes aren’t dead yet at four games back of Philadelphia for the final NL wild card, but anything less than a sweep against a franchise on the verge of a fourth consecutive 100-loss campaign will likely end any playoff hopes they had.
Marlins (76-80) at Cubs (87-69): Three games – It’s all about earning the NL’s top wild card spot as the Cubs end their season with three contests against the Fish and a road set at Boston.
Cardinals (76-80) at Pirates (79-77): Three games – No playoffs for either team this year, but third place in the NL Central is still up for grabs if they even care.
Reds (72-84) at Atlanta (92-64): Three games – What started as a promising season for Cincy after going 20-11 through April ends with what looks to be a fourth losing month if they don’t improve on their 7-11 September record.
Nationals (73-83) at Tigers (73-83): Three games – Not only do these once-playoff-hopeful franchises have the same record, but they are only two of three current non-playoff squads with a positive run differential on the season (Pirates the other).
Twins (73-83) at Giants (64-92): Three games – It’s been a disaster for the Giants and first-year manager Tony Vitello, and even if they win their final six games of the campaign, they will still be the National League’s second-worst team.
Angels (60-96) at A’s (61-95): Two games – The only possible intrigue this series brings to its fans is that it’s not only a battle to stay out of the AL West’s basement, but the entire American League’s as well.
